文/Jo Constantz 根据咨询公司麦肯锡公司的一项研究，未来十年，美国工人面临的最大威胁可能不是AI导致的就业末日。更大的挑战可能是帮助数百万人转岗就业。
By Jo Constantz An AI jobs apocalypse may not be the biggest threat to US workers in the next decade. The larger challenge could be helping millions of people move into new jobs, according to a study by consulting firm McKinsey & Co.
根据周二发布的报告，到2035年，大约1100万美国工人（约占当前劳动力的7%）可能因人工智能相关的岗位置换而需要转行。这意味着，美国每年转行的工人数量——历史上约为21.5万人——在未来十年可能会增加两倍。根据麦肯锡的分析，对许多人来说，这一转型将十分艰难，七分之六的工人面临大量的再培训和收入损失。
Roughly 11 million American workers, or about 7% of the current workforce, may need to change jobs by 2035 because of artificial intelligence-related displacement, according to the report released Tuesday. That means the number of US workers who change occupations each year — historically around 215,000 — may triple over the next decade. The transition will be tough for many, with six of seven workers facing substantial retraining and loss of income, according to McKinsey’s analysis.
报告作者指出，工人不是“可互换的单位”。“如果新岗位所需的技能、资质、地点或薪酬结构与现有工作不同，即便就业机会充足，也可能让数百万工人无业可就。”麦肯锡研究发现，最可能被迫转行的全职员工集中在三大群体：办公室和行政支持、零售和销售、运输和物流。这包括客服代表、收银员和仓库工人等岗位。许多人是低收入工人，报告预测他们被迫转行的可能性比高收入者高出近八倍。
Workers aren’t “interchangeable units,” the report’s authors note. “Job opportunities can be abundant and yet leave millions of workers without work if those positions require different skills, credentials, locations or pay structures than current jobs.”The McKinsey study found that full-time employees most likely to have to change jobs are concentrated in three groups, office and administrative support, retail and sales, and transportation and logistics. That includes jobs such as customer-service representatives, cashiers and warehouse workers. Many are low-income workers, whom the report projects will be almost eight times as likely as higher earners to have to change jobs.
与同类预测一样，该分析取决于难以预测的因素，包括企业采用AI的速度以及这如何影响各行业对工人的需求。研究还考虑了塑造劳动力需求的更广泛趋势，包括该国人口老龄化。鉴于这种不确定性，作者估计可能有600万至1600万工人需要转换职业。
Like many projections of its kind, the analysis hinges on factors that are difficult to predict, including how quickly companies adopt AI and how that affects demand for workers across industries. The research also accounts for broader trends shaping labor demand, including the country’s aging population. Given that uncertainty, the authors estimate that anywhere from 6 million to 16 million workers may need to switch occupations.
报告概述了联邦、州和地方政府帮助工人实现这些转型的几种方式，包括提供更详细、更及时的劳动力市场数据以及资助再培训项目。
The report outlines several ways federal, state and local governments could help workers make those transitions, including providing more detailed and timely labor-market data and funding retraining programs.
早期的劳动力市场转型，例如美国从农业转向其他行业，过程要缓慢得多。但这种变化速度是有先例的：根据麦肯锡全球研究院高级合伙人、报告作者之一唐吉·卡特林的说法，预计的职业变动率与美国工人在新冠疫情期间经历的相似。“我们在新冠期间坚持了两年，”他说。“你必须假设我们能维持大约10年。”卡特林表示，报告未考虑的一个因素是，某些职业的劳动力需求下降速度是否会快于其他职业的需求增长速度。“我们不知道这一过程是否会毫无痛苦，”他说。
Earlier labor market transformations such as America’s move away from agriculture unfolded far more gradually. But there is precedent for this pace of change: The rate of projected job changes is similar to what US workers experienced during the Covid-19 pandemic, according to Tanguy Catlin, a senior partner at the McKinsey Global Institute and one of the report’s authors. “We did it during Covid for two years,” he said. “You would need to presume that we can sustain it for about 10 years.”One factor the report didn’t consider, Catlin said, is whether demand for workers could fall faster in some occupations than it rises in others. “We don't know whether it's going to be painless,” he said.
“教育体系长期以来的发展重点主要放在青年身上，”卡特林说。“但可以采取什么措施来持续提升现有劳动力的技能，即那些需要转行的人？这些就是我们想要提交给公众讨论的问题。”
“The education system has been developed over time really to focus mostly on youth,” Catlin said. “But what can be done to continue to upskill the existing workforce, people who need to change occupations? Those are the questions we wanted to tee up for public debate.”