中国发出了迄今为止最强烈的信号,表明将加大力度应对经济增速的持续放缓。政府承诺将推出新的政策措施来支持经济发展,并研究相关方案以稳定日益动荡的房地产市场。此前数月里,中国政府一直强调应重点落实现有的各项政策措施;如今,国务院表示将“制定一系列切实有效的新政策”,以确保今年的经济目标能够得以实现。
China has given its strongest signal yet that it will move with greater urgency to counter a deepening slowdown, as the government promised to introduce new measures to support the economy and study policies to stabilise the reeling property market. Having spent months insisting the focus was on fully implementing existing measures, China’s cabinet — the State Council — now says it will “put in place a package of practical and effective additional policies” to safeguard this year’s economic goals.
在周一发布的一份声明中,政府表示,经济中出现的这些“新问题”要求政府“加强逆周期调控措施”。这种措辞的突然变化表明,随着中国政府对全球第二大经济体增长势头放缓的担忧日益加剧,新一轮经济刺激措施即将出台。第三季度的经济增长很可能进一步疲软,远低于政府设定的年度增长目标;此前三个月的经济增长率为4.3%,但消费需求停滞不前,投资则陷入更严重的低迷状态。
The “emerging issues” in the economy require the government to “step up counter-cyclical adjustments,” it said in a statement Monday. The abrupt shift in language indicates an imminent new round of stimulus as Beijing becomes increasingly concerned over the cooling momentum in the world’s second-largest economy. Growth has likely weakened further below the bottom end of the government’s annual target in the third quarter after reaching 4.3% in the previous three months, with consumption flatlining and investment falling into a deeper slump.“This signals that there will likely be more policy support rollout in the weeks ahead to support the short and long-term growth targets,” said Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at ING Bank NV.
ING银行大中华区首席经济学家林恩·宋(Lynn Song)表示:“这表明未来几周内政府可能会推出更多政策支持措施,以推动经济的短期和长期增长。”虽然中国领导层似乎愿意采取一切必要措施来实现今年的增长目标,但迄今为止政府仅暗示了一些具体的政策方向,这些措施表明他们并不打算像两年前那样大规模地实施经济刺激计划(当时政府曾采取积极措施来扭转市场低迷情绪)。
While China’s leadership appears ready to tailor policies in any way necessary to meet this year’s growth target, the government has so far hinted at several measures that suggest it’s not contemplating a stimulus package on the same scale as two years ago, when it moved aggressively to turn around market sentiment.
根据国务院总理李克强主持的周一会议后发布的声明,地方政府将被允许使用往年未使用的债券额度;同时,中央银行的再贷款额度也将增加,以鼓励向科技、农业和小企业等领域的贷款。声明还指出,政策制定者还将研究新的措施来稳定房地产市场、促进就业并提高居民收入。
法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)中国首席经济学家杰奎琳·荣(Jacqueline Rong)表示:“当前的经济增长势头本身并不足以实现年度增长目标,因此第四季度需要额外的政策支持。这些措施的目的是缩小实际经济增长与4.5%的增长目标之间的差距。”
Local authorities will be allowed to tap unused bond quota left from previous years, with the central bank’s relending allowance increased to encourage loans to sectors including technology, agriculture and small businesses, according to the statement issued after a Monday meeting of the State Council chaired by Premier Li Qiang. Policymakers will also study fresh measures to stabilise the property market, promote employment and boost household income, it said.“The underlying growth momentum does not appear strong enough on its own to deliver the annual target, implying that additional policy support will be needed in the fourth quarter,” said Jacqueline Rong, chief China economist at BNP Paribas SA. “The purpose of such measures would be to bridge the gap between underlying growth and the 4.5% goal. That suggests the stimulus does not need to be large, since the gap itself is likely modest.”
这表明刺激措施无需过大,因为缺口本身可能不大。投资者对北京最新表态做出反应,买入房地产股,彭博开发商指数截至午盘上涨逾4%,有望录得一个多月来最大单日涨幅。在岸和离岸人民币兑美元均升值0.1%,而政府10年期国债收益率变化不大。荷兰国际集团(ING)的宋博(音)表示,任何旨在支持房地产市场以及就业和工资的政策力度将是关键观察点,因其有潜力提振信心和消费。他补充道:“如果我们看到巩固近期房地产市场企稳迹象的实质性措施,那将对经济产生最大影响。”
Investors reacted to Beijing’s latest messaging by bidding up property stocks, with a Bloomberg index of developers climbing more than 4% as of the mid-day break, on track for its biggest gain in more than a month. The yuan strengthened 0.1% against the dollar both onshore and offshore, while the yield on the government’s 10-year government bond was little changed. The magnitude of any policies to aid the housing market as well as jobs and wages will be key to watch, given the potential boost to confidence and consumption, according to ING’s Song. “If we see substantive measures to firm up the stabilisation signs that we’ve seen recently in the property market, it would be the most impactful for the economy,” he added.