提前选举对基民盟/基社盟和社民党来说无异于“政治自杀”。穆诺表示，在推进不受欢迎的改革之际，保守派高层中似乎无人准备接班。专家警告，对既有政党日益增长的不信任以及经济焦虑，正将选民推向右翼的选择党，并削弱人们对民主的信心。弗里德里希·默茨总理在近期州选举中的惨败，在德国引发了对其政治未来以及联合政府能否延续的新一轮疑问。
Snap elections would amount to 'political suicide' for CDU/CSU and SPD, and no senior conservative appears ready to take over amid unpopular reforms, Muno says Growing distrust of established parties and economic anxiety are driving voters toward right-wing AfD and eroding faith in democracy, expert war Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s crushing defeats in recent state elections have raised fresh questions in Germany about his political future and the survival of his coalition government. A recent YouGov poll found that 48% of Germans do not expect Merz to remain chancellor through the end of the year, while a separate survey for news channel n-tv showed 55% want him to resign.
YouGov最近的一项poll调查显示，48%的德国人预计默茨无法在年底前继续担任总理；新闻频道n-tv进行的另一项调查则显示，55%的受访者希望他辞职。
然而，德国罗斯托克大学比较政治学教授沃尔夫冈·穆诺表示，尽管压力不断增大，默茨短期内不太可能下台，其联合执政伙伴也无意提前举行联邦选举。
But Wolfgang Muno, a professor of comparative politics at Germany's University of Rostock, said Merz is unlikely to step down anytime soon despite growing pressure, and that coalition partners have little appetite for early federal elections.
穆诺告诉阿纳多卢通讯社：“对默茨总理领导的基督教民主党（基民盟/基社盟）及其联合执政伙伴社民党来说，提前举行选举或多或少等同于‘政治自杀’，因为两党的民调支持率均低于上次联邦选举时的结果。”
“A snap election would be more or less political suicide for Chancellor Merz’s Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) and their coalition partner, the Social Democrats, as both are polling below their results in the last federal election,” he told Anadolu.
基督教民主党本月在三个联邦州遭遇创纪录的败选，引发了外界对“总理换人”的猜测，即基民盟/基社盟将提名新候选人，并由联邦议会选举出继任者，而不宣布举行新选举。
The Christian Democrats’ record losses in three federal states this month have fueled speculation about a “chancellor swap,” in which the CDU/CSU would nominate a new candidate and elect a successor in the federal parliament without calling new elections.
穆诺密切关注德国国内政治。他将这种设想描述为短期内并不现实，并表示，在政府推进不受欢迎的改革之际，保守派高层中似乎无人准备接手。
Muno, who closely follows German domestic politics, described that scenario as unrealistic in the short term, saying no senior conservative appears ready to take over while the government is pushing through unpopular reforms.
他说：“我看不出有谁愿意这样做。北莱茵-威斯特法伦州州长亨德里克·武斯特和巴伐利亚州州长马库斯·泽德都没有表示愿意接任。”他所说的这两人都是广受欢迎、被广泛视为可能继任者的人物。
“I don’t see any candidate who is willing to do so. Neither North Rhine-Westphalia’s premier Hendrik Wuest nor Bavarian premier Markus Soeder said they would be willing to step in,” he said, referring to the two popular figures widely mentioned as possible successors.
即便保守派议员团结支持一名新候选人，穆诺认为，领导层更迭也几乎无法解决德国更深层的问题。
Even if conservative lawmakers united behind a new candidate, Muno argued, a leadership change would do little to address Germany’s deeper problems.
他说，选举结果反映出的普遍公众不满，并非默茨一人辞职所能化解。
The election results, he said, reflect widespread public frustration that Merz’s resignation alone cannot resolve.
基民盟惨败，右翼德国选择党崛起。本月，默茨领导的基民盟在萨克森-安哈尔特州、梅克伦堡-前波美拉尼亚州和柏林州的选举中损失惨重。
CDU’s heavy defeat, right-wing AfD’s rise This month, Merz’s CDU suffered heavy losses in state elections in Saxony-Anhalt, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Berlin.
反移民的德国选择党在两个东部州以较大优势获胜，而在柏林州选举中，基民盟则被具有社会主义性质的左翼党反超。
The anti-immigrant AfD won by a wide margin in the two eastern states, while in the Berlin city-state election the CDU was overtaken by the socialist Left Party.
调查显示，州层面的关切——例如当地经济状况、公共服务和基础设施——虽然对投票有一定影响，但许多选民也借此次选举表达了对默茨政府的不满。
Surveys suggested that while state-level concerns – such as local economic conditions, public services and infrastructure – played a role, many voters also used the elections to voice their discontent with the Merz government.
右翼德国选择党取得史无前例的进展，尤其是在德国东部。该党在梅克伦堡-前波美拉尼亚州赢得38.2%的选票，在萨克森-安哈尔特州赢得约43.8%的选票。
The right-wing AfD made unprecedented gains, particularly in the east, winning 38.2% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and about 43.8% in Saxony-Anhalt.
穆诺说，德国选择党的崛起不能仅归因于持极端观点的选民或对移民问题的担忧。该党还吸引了许多对建制政党感到疏离、希望寻找替代选择的人。他说：“人们对建制政党的信任越来越低。”
Muno said AfD’s surge cannot be explained solely by voters with extremist views or concerns about immigration, stressing that the party has also attracted people who feel alienated from the established parties and are looking for an alternative. “We have a higher and higher level of mistrust in established political parties,” he said.
他补充道：“他们（选民）被右翼民粹主义政客所吸引。这些政客说：‘柏林那些政客、那些精英并不关心你们；他们制定的也不是为你们而设的政策。’”穆诺说，经济忧患和接连不断的危机叙事正在加深这种疏离感。他提到经济下行、能源危机，以及人们在冬季到来前对天然气价格上涨的担忧。
“They (voters) are drawn to right-wing populist politicians who say: ‘Those politicians in Berlin, the elites, do not care about you; they do not make policy for you,’” he added. Economic worries and a steady stream of crisis narratives are deepening that sense of alienation, Muno said, pointing to the economic downturn, the energy crisis, and fears of rising gas prices ahead of winter.
穆诺说，尤其是低收入群体认为政府计划中的改革——特别是养老金和医疗保健方面的改革——在社会层面不公平。
Lower-income groups in particular see the government’s planned changes, especially to pensions and health care, as socially unfair, Muno said.
他说：“他们说，收入较低的人不得不承受削减之苦，而收入较高的人则不会遭受同样的痛苦。”
“They say people with lower income have to suffer from cuts, but people with higher income do not suffer the same way,” he said.
穆诺警告称，尽管德国选择党（AfD）的崛起令人担忧，但更大的危险在于，公众对民主的信任正在持续流失，尤其是在德国东部各州。
Muno warned that while the AfD’s surge is concerning, an even greater danger is the steady erosion of public confidence in democracy, especially in the eastern states.
“我认为，我们正在失去许多民众……因为他们不再相信民主，”他说。
“I would say we are losing many people … because they don’t believe in democracy anymore,” he said.
他强调，德国选择党高层人士对民主的理解与自由、多元主义制度存在根本冲突，称该党试图限制司法独立和媒体自由，并放弃人人享有平等权利的原则。
He stressed that senior AfD figures’ understanding of democracy fundamentally conflicts with a liberal, pluralist system, saying the party seeks to curb the independence of the judiciary and media freedom and abandon the principle of equal rights for all.
“德国选择党认为，人们属于不同群体，尤其是移民不应享有与那些被他们以血统认定为德国人的人相同的权利，”他说。
“In the view of the AfD, there are different groups of people, and especially immigrants should not have the same rights as the people they consider to be Germans by blood,” he said.
“这就是他们的基本理念，也是为什么这本身也会对民主构成危险。”2025年5月，德国国内情报机构联邦宪法保护局将德国选择党认定为“已确认的右翼极端主义”组织。该党正在就此向法院提出异议。
“That’s their basic idea, and this is why it’s also a danger for democracy itself.”In May 2025, Germany’s domestic intelligence agency, the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV), classified the AfD as a “confirmed right-wing extremist” organization. The party is contesting the designation in court.
穆诺指出，在本月举行的选举中，德国选择党赢得胜利的两个东部州，针对民主态度的调查存在令人担忧的结果。
Muno pointed to surveys on attitudes toward democracy in the two eastern states where the AfD won this month’s elections.
他说，在梅克伦堡-前波美拉尼亚州，四分之三的人不再认为民主是更好的政治制度；在萨克森-安哈尔特州，超过一半的受访者表示，他们更希望由“唯一一个有实力的政党”代表人民并作出决定。需要切实成果和积极叙事穆诺还指出了主流政党表现不佳背后的另一个弱点。
In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, three-quarters of people no longer see democracy as the better political system, he said, while in Saxony-Anhalt more than half of respondents said they would prefer “only one strong party” deciding and representing the people. Need for tangible results, positive narrative Muno also highlighted another weakness behind the mainstream parties’ poor performance.
他说，主流政党过于侧重于渲染危机，从而强化了德国选择党的叙事，即德国面临接二连三的问题，一切都不顺利。
They have focused too much on crisis talk, he said, reinforcing the AfD’s narrative that Germany faces constant problems and that nothing is going well.
他表示，为了重新争取那些心灰意冷的选民，默尔兹的保守派基民盟/基社盟联盟及其社会民主党联盟伙伴必须首先取得具体成果，让民众在日常生活中切实感受到变化。
To win back disillusioned voters, he said, Merz’s conservative CDU/CSU alliance and their Social Democrat coalition partners must first deliver concrete results people can feel in their daily lives.
同样重要的是，穆诺认为，主流政治家需要一套积极的叙事来应对和化解社会经济方面的担忧——这种叙事应当建立信任，并回应人们的恐惧。否则，他警告说，越来越多的人会开始质疑民主本身的价值。
Just as important, Muno argued, mainstream politicians need a positive narrative for overcoming socioeconomic concerns – one that builds trust and addresses people’s fears. Otherwise, he warned, more people will begin to question the value of democracy itself.
“如果民主无法带来社会福利和经济利益，那么人们就会问，民主还有什么意义？我可以投票，却没有足够的钱付房租，也没有钱买汽油，”他说。
“If democracy is not able to deliver social benefits and economic benefits, then the people say, what’s the sense of democracy? I can vote, but I don’t have enough to pay my rent, to pay for my gasoline,” he said.
“人们担心自己的收入下降、财富缩水，这是一种非常危险的局面，”穆诺警告说，并补充指出，如果选民不再看到民主能够带来稳定的生活，那么他们中的更多人就会干脆不再相信民主。
“People fear their income is falling and their wealth is shrinking, and this is a very dangerous situation,” Muno warned, adding that if voters no longer see democracy delivering a stable living, more of them will simply stop believing in it.