民调显示民主党人詹姆斯·塔拉里科（James Talarico）与共和党人肯·帕克斯顿（Ken Paxton）之间的美国参议院席位之争十分胶着，因此我们决定将今年与2018年进行对比，那是德克萨斯州上一次出现选情极其紧迫的全州性选举。
With polls showing a tight U.S. Senate race between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton, we decided to see how this year matched up against 2018, the last time a Texas statewide election came down to the wire.
重要性：那一年，民主党人贝托·奥罗克（Beto O'Rourke）以2.6个百分点（约21.5万张选票）的差距输给了联邦参议员泰德·克鲁兹（Ted Cruz）。那场竞选打破了筹款纪录，并点燃（随后又破灭）了民主党人让德克萨斯州“变蓝”的希望。
Why it matters: Democrat Beto O'Rourke lost that year to U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz by 2.6 percentage points, or about 215,000 votes, in a race that broke fundraising records and raised (and dashed) Democratic hopes of turning Texas blue. The similarities O'Rourke was running his first statewide campaign and was relatively unknown outside his hometown of El Paso, allowing him to introduce himself to most voters for the first time.
相似之处：奥罗克当时是在进行他的首次全州竞选，在埃尔帕索家乡以外的地方相对默默无闻，这使他能够向大多数选民进行首次自我介绍。来自奥斯汀的州议员塔拉里科在发起参议院竞选之前，在德克萨斯州中部以外的地区也相对不为人知。
Talarico, a state legislator from Austin, was relatively unknown outside of Central Texas before he launched his Senate bid. Cruz first won election to the Senate as a tea party insurgentwho defeated a better-funded, establishment-backed candidate in a primary runoff.
克鲁兹首次当选参议员时，是以茶党反叛者的身份，在初选决选中击败了一名资金更雄厚、有建制派支持的候选人。帕克斯顿作为连任三届的州总检察长，获得了特朗普总统的支持，并在参议院初选决选中击败了一名拥有更多竞选资金的建制派现任议员。
Paxton, a three-term state attorney general, was endorsed by President Trump and won his Senate primary in a runoff against an establishment incumbent with far more campaign cash. 2018 was a Trump midterm year that saw energized Democrats eager to check presidential power.
2018年是特朗普执政期间的中期选举年，当时民主党人充满活力，渴望制衡总统权力。今年亦是如此。
Ditto this year. In many ways, the U.S. Senate race — then and now — could essentially be viewed as a referendum on Trump.
在许多方面，当时的参议院竞选和现在的竞选，本质上都可以被视为对特朗普的一次全民公投。
By the numbers: In October 2018, Trump had a 48% approval rating among respondents to a University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll. 45% disapproved.
数据分析：2018年10月，在德克萨斯大学/德克萨斯政治项目（University of Texas/Texas Politics Project）的一项民意调查中，特朗普的支持率为48%，不支持率为45%。
In August 2026, 51% disagree with the job he's doing and 43% approve.
而在2026年8月，51%的人不认可他的工作表现，43%的人表示认可。
What they're saying: "In 2018, Trump was generally unpopular, but his handling of the economy was a strength," Nicholas Long, a St. Edward's University political science professor, tells Axios.
各方观点：圣爱德华大学（St. Edward's University）政治学教授尼古拉斯·朗（Nicholas Long）告诉Axios：“2018年时，特朗普总体上不受欢迎，但他对经济的处理是其优势所在。而今天，这成了他的弱点……这是共和党候选人在2018年所没有面临的严峻阻力。”
"Today, it's a weakness. … This is a stiff headwind that Republican candidates weren't facing in 2018."
差异之处：竞选风格：奥罗克在德克萨斯州全部254个县进行了竞选活动，试图与选民建立联系，即使是在深红色的地区也不例外。
The differences Campaign style: O'Rourke campaigned in every one of Texas' 254 counties, seeking to connect with voters even in deeply red areas.
塔拉里科也广泛游历过各地，但他的竞选活动主要依赖于社交媒体；正是通过社交媒体，他的筹款金额达到了历史新高。
Talarico has also traveled widely, but his campaign is most closely associated with social media, which launched him to record fundraising heights.
“虽然2018年民主党人对贝托（Beto）的热情高于2026年对塔拉里科的热情，但塔拉里科可能更能吸引独立选民，尤其是那些倾向于共和党的选民，”朗（Long）说道。
"While there was more excitement for Beto among Democrats in 2018 than for Talarico in 2026, Talarico may have a broader appeal to independents and especially leaning Republicans," Long says.
尽管塔拉里科在黑人选民中的支持率很高，但他的主要竞争对手——达拉斯市的民主党众议员贾斯敏·克罗克特（Jasmine Crockett）却并未为他开展过竞选活动。普莱里维尤农工大学（Prairie View A&M University）的政治学教授比利·门罗（Billy Monroe）对Axios表示：“我记得2018年时该校的学生们对贝托非常热情，但这次情况却截然不同。”
And while Talarico polls well among Black voters, his primary opponent U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) hasn't campaigned for him. Billy Monroe, a political science professor at Prairie View A&M University, a historically Black institution, tells Axios: "I remember seeing the students at PVAMU being very enthusiastic about Beto in 2018, and I have not seen that this time around."
另一方面，克鲁兹（Cruz）在2018年时是现任议员，他在竞选活动中的表现比帕克斯顿（Paxton）更为娴熟。他在接受《Texas Take》播客采访时称：“2018年我曾深入各地开展竞选活动；而帕克斯顿显然还没有这么做。”（帕克斯顿在7月4日那天去了英国。）克鲁兹对主持人杰里米·华莱士（Jeremy Wallace）说：“我们努力提高了选民投票率，尤其是在德克萨斯州东部、西部以及农村地区——因为这些地区的选民历来不太会参加中期选举。我们告诉他们：‘如果你们不投票，德克萨斯州就会变成民主党控制的州。’2026年，肯·帕克斯顿也需要做同样的事情。’”
The other side: Cruz, who was an incumbent in 2018 and is much more comfortable on the stump than Paxton, told the "Texas Take" podcast that he barnstormed in 2018 — and implied that Paxton had not yet done so. (Paxton spent the Fourth of July in England.) "We drove turnout, ringing the bell, in particular going into deep East Texas, West Texas, the Panhandle, the Valley — [for] a lot of rural Texans, who historically don't show up in a midterm," Cruz told podcast host Jeremy Wallace, "saying, 'If you don't show up, Texas is going to go blue.' … Similarly in 2026, that's the job Ken Paxton needs to do." But Paxton campaign spokesperson Madison Cercy tells Axios, "Attorney General Paxton has been doing exactly that … meeting Texans from every corner of our great state." Scandals: Paxton was impeached by the Republican-dominated Texas House (and then acquitted by the Texas Senate).
不过帕克斯顿的竞选发言人麦迪逊·塞尔西（Madison Cercy）向Axios表示：“帕克斯顿州长一直在积极与德克萨斯州的各界人士接触。”
Paxton's wife, Republican state Sen. Angela Paxton, accused him of adultery and filed for divorce last year.
丑闻方面：帕克斯顿曾遭到由共和党主导的德克萨斯州众议院的弹劾，但后来被州参议院宣判无罪。
Cruz had avoided scandal.
帕克斯顿的妻子、共和党州参议员安吉拉·帕克斯顿（Angela Paxton）去年指控他通奸，并提出了离婚诉讼。克鲁兹则一直避免了任何丑闻的发生。
Demographics: The Texas Demographic Center pegs the state population at 32 million people — up from the 28.6 million in 2018. 15.25 million Texans wereed to vote in the March 2018 primary.
人口统计：根据德克萨斯州人口统计中心的数据，该州目前的人口为3200万，比2018年的2860万人有所增加。
18.68 million Texans wereed to vote in the March 2026 primary. (The registration deadline for this year's general election is Oct. 5.)
在2018年3月的初选中，共有1525万德克萨斯州选民参与了投票。
Stunning stat: Republicans enjoyed a huge advantage in the sheer number of voters in the March 2018 primary ahead of the November election.
2026年3月的初选中，共有1868万德克萨斯州选民参与了投票（今年大选的注册截止日期为10月5日）。值得注意的是：在2018年3月的初选中，共和党在选民数量上占据了巨大优势（该初选距离11月的大选仅有几个月时间）；而今年，民主党则处于优势地位。
This year, Democrats have an advantage. 1.5 million Texans voted in the GOP U.S. Senate primary in March 2018, and 1 million cast ballots in the Democratic U.S. Senate primary that year.
2018年3月，有150万德克萨斯州选民参加了共和党的美国参议院初选，100万选民参加了民主党的美国参议院初选；而今年，有232万德克萨斯州选民参加了民主党的美国参议院初选，216万选民参加了共和党的美国参议院初选。我们目前关注的重点是：拉丁裔选民的投票情况及其投票倾向。
2.32 million Texans voted in the Democratic U.S. Senate primary this year, and 2.16 million cast votes in the Republican U.S. Senate primary. What we're watching: The turnout and direction of the Latino vote.
塔拉里科（Talarico）在2018年3月的初选中在拉丁裔选民中取得了重大胜利；如果他能在11月的大选中获胜，这些拉丁裔选民将成为他获胜的关键力量。
Talarico notched big victories among Latinos in the March primary, and they would be key to a winning coalition should he prevail in November.
2024年时，德克萨斯州的拉丁裔选民几乎都把票投给了特朗普；然而，在移民政策收紧以及经济形势动荡的背景下，这部分选民似乎又开始倾向于支持民主党。
The Texas Latino vote nearly went for Trump in 2024, but in the wake of immigration crackdowns and a turbulent economy, that bloc of voters appears to be shifting back toward Democrats.