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克里斯·梅森:伯纳姆就社会护理改革这一重大议题展开辩论Chris Mason: Burnham opens debate on huge issue of social care reform

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克里斯·梅森(Chris Mason)报道:对于一位首相而言,党代会演讲日向来是重头戏,而作为上任后的首次演讲,其重要性更是不言而喻。

By Chris Mason Conference speech day is always a big day for a prime minister, and perhaps no bigger than when it is your first one in the role.

安迪·伯纳姆(Andy Burnham)的论调是“希望源于诚实”,他认为政府需要“减少漂移,加强指引”,并要有勇气去说出“政客们通常避而不谈的话题”。周日,他在接受英国广播公司(BBC)采访时表示,他希望对英格兰的社会护理体系进行大刀阔斧的改革,但鉴于他必须遵守基尔·斯塔默爵士(Sir Keir Starmer)在上届大选中作出的税收承诺,他只能在赢得大选后才能付诸实施。

The pitch from Andy Burnham is that "hope comes from honesty," there needs to be "less drift and more direction" and there needs to be a willingness to say "the things politicians usually avoid." On Sunday, he told the BBC he wants to shake up social care in England, but would only be able to do so after a general election given he was committed to the tax promises Sir Keir Starmer made at the last general election.

这引发了一阵关于如何为他的社会护理计划提供资金的热议,尤其是关于所谓的“三重锁定”(triple lock)的未来——即承诺将国家养老金的增长幅度与工资、物价或2.5%中的最高者挂钩。

This prompted a flurry of chat about how his social care plan could be paid for - and in particular the future of what is known as the triple lock, the promise to increase the state pension in line with wages, prices or 2.5%, whichever is the highest.

这是一项由保守党与自由民主党联合政府于2010年推出的政策,旨在解决养老金领取者的贫困问题。

This was a policy introduced in 2010 by the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition government to try to address pensioner poverty.

然而,许多不同党派的政客长期以来私下里一直担心其成本正在不断膨胀,且未来还会持续增加,但他们同时也感叹,在政治上放弃这一政策将是何等困难。

But plenty of politicians, in multiple parties, have long privately fretted that its cost is ballooning and will continue to do so, but would bemoan how politically difficult it would be to drop it.

这对首相来说是一个棘手的问题:联合工会(Unite union)领导人莎伦·格雷厄姆(Sharon Graham)表示,放弃“三重锁定”可能是“选举自杀”。

It's a tricky one for the prime minister: he has the leader of the Unite union, Sharon Graham, saying it could be "electoral suicide" to ditch the triple lock.

与此同时,决定政府借贷成本的市场也在密切关注伯纳姆的承诺是否具有财务可信度。

Meanwhile the markets - which determine the cost of borrowing for the government - are keeping a keen eye on whether Burnham's promises appear to be financially credible.

换句话说,他不仅要说明钱将花在何处,还必须指出哪些地方将不再投入资金。

In other words, he has to be able to point to things where money won't be spent, as well as where it will be.

唐宁街10号对于安迪·伯纳姆稍后究竟会说什么或不说什么,态度相当谨慎。

No10 are being pretty coy about precisely what Andy Burnham will or won't say on all this later on.

他们确实不想把事情搞得太夸张或过火,反而暗示是其他人有些反应过度了。

They really don't want to overcook it or overdo it, instead suggesting it is others who have been getting carried away.

但部长们清楚地知道,这背后正酝酿着一场风波——考虑到关于“诚实”、坦率和权衡取舍的承诺,如果对此只字不提,那将是极不寻常的。

But ministers are well aware that a hare is running about it all - and given that, it would be extraordinary if there was no mention of it all, given that promise about "honesty," candour and trade offs.

这种不寻常足以让批评者抓住把柄,指责他缺乏他所承诺的那种坦率。

Sufficiently extraordinary that his critics would pounce on what they'd see as a precise lack of the very thing he is promising - candour.

我今天早上接触的相关人士表示,正如一位知情人士所言,“人们会对积极的一面感到惊讶”,即伯纳姆将在多大程度上愿意深入探讨工党在下届大选政纲中可能包含的各种选项。他将明确表示,正如承诺的那样,该政策将保留至大选。

Folk I am hearing from this morning suggest, as one figure put it, "people will be surprised on the upside" about how much Burnham will be willing to lean into the options that could be explored as part of Labour's offer at the next general election. He will be explicit it will be retained, as promised, until the election.

相反,伯纳姆似乎将寻求就上述所有议题开启对话,而非敲定细节。

Instead, it would appear Burnham will seek to seed a conversation about all of the above, without nailing down the details.

他的盟友视此为一种不同的政治路径——公开备选方案,启动辩论,但不生硬或突然地转变政策。

His allies see this as a different approach to politics – being open about options, starting a debate but not crudely or abruptly shifting policy.

这隐含着与斯塔默爵士取消冬季燃油补贴的做法形成对比——后者似乎毫无征兆,且产生了近乎即时的冲击。

There is an implicit comparison with Sir Keir Starmer's ditching of the Winter Fuel Payment – which appeared to come from nowhere and had a near immediate impact.

但这并未阻止格雷厄姆将这两种做法相提并论——他声称“这样做的危险”在于,工党可能会在安迪·伯纳姆领导下“浪费”来之不易的第二次机会。于是,辩论拉开帷幕。

But that didn't stop Graham likening the two approaches – claiming "the danger of doing it" is that Labour could "waste" a second hearing which it now has under Andy Burnham. And so the debate begins.

但总体而言,我交谈的部长们正欣然迎接他们所看到的回归——回归到关于代际议题的重大辩论,并有一位愿意公开直面这些问题的首相。

In the round, though, ministers I speak to are relishing what they see as a return to big arguments, about generational issues with a prime minister willing to wrestle with them in public.

今天下午,我们将更全面地了解其范围和规模——涉及社会护理、养老金等诸多领域。

This afternoon we will get a fuller sense of the scope and scale of that – on social care, pensions and much else.

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