从新冠疫情到唐纳德·特朗普实施的关税政策，再加上乌克兰和中东地区的战争，世界贸易政策正经历着战后时代最不可预测的时期。
From COVID to Donald Trump's tariffs — with wars in Ukraine and the Middle East in between — world trade policy is enduring the most unpredictable period of the postwar era.
疫情导致全球众多工厂关闭，加速了各国从中国（全球最大的制造业国家）转移生产力的进程。与此同时，乌克兰和中东的冲突扰乱了全球石油、天然气、食品及化肥的供应。
The pandemic shut factories worldwide and accelerated a shift away from China, the world’s largest manufacturer. The two conflicts then disrupted global supplies of oil and gas, food and fertilizer.
唐纳德·特朗普总统推行的关税政策将美国的进口关税提升到了数十年来的最高水平，迫使企业不得不寻找新的供应商和市场。
US President Donald Trump’s tariffs, meanwhile, pushed US duties to their highest level in decades, forcing firms to find new suppliers and markets.
世界贸易组织（WTO）首席经济学家罗伯特·施泰格（Robert Staiger）将这一系列动荡称为“自该贸易体系建立以来最严重、持续时间最长的贸易中断”。尽管面临这些冲击，全球贸易依然表现出惊人的韧性。
Robert Staiger, chief economist at the World Trade Organization (WTO), calls the turmoil "the most serious and sustained disruptions since the [world trading] system was created 80 years ago." Despite these shocks, global trade has remained surprisingly resilient.
根据WTO上周发布的年度报告，去年全球货物贸易额增长了4.6%，这主要得益于对人工智能（AI）相关技术的强劲需求；服务贸易额则增长了5.3%。
According to the WTO's annual report published last week, goods trade volumes rose 4.6% last year, lifted by strong demand for the advanced technology behind the artificial intelligence (AI) build-out. Services trade volumes grew by 5.3%.
中国依然是全球最大的货物出口国，美国则是最大的货物进口国；欧盟在这两项指标中均位居第二。
China remained the world's largest goods exporter, while the United States was again the largest importer. The European Union came in second in both.
不过，施泰格上周对法新社（AFP）表示，强劲的AI产品出口可能掩盖了全球贸易额实际下降的趋势。WTO在3月份的贸易展望报告中指出：亚洲国家在AI相关产品的贸易中占据主导地位，而非洲、拉丁美洲、中东以及欧洲大部分地区的贸易活动则几乎停滞不前。
However, Staiger told AFP news agency last week that strong AI exports "may be masking some of the drop in world trade that might otherwise be occurring." The WTO noted in its March trade outlook that Asian countries dominated the AI goods trade, while Africa, Latin America, the Middle East and much of Europe barely showed up. AI-related tech accounted for about one-sixth of goods trade but close to half of global trade growth.
AI相关技术仅占全球货物贸易总额的六分之一，但却推动了全球贸易增长的近一半。
Since returning to office last year, Trump has continued to pivot from WTO rules on global trade.
自去年重新执政以来，特朗普一直违背WTO关于全球贸易的规则，单方面对某些国家征收关税，并与个别国家谈判免除关税或实施“互惠”关税措施。
The US president has set country-specific duties, breaking the WTO’s equal-treatment rule. He has since negotiated exemptions and "reciprocal" tariffs with individual countries.
尽管如此，全球仍有约72%的货物交易遵循该国际组织的核心贸易规则；这一比例较2022年的约80%有所下降。
Despite this, globally, about 72% of goods are still traded on the Geneva-based agency's core terms, down from roughly 80% in 2022.
但从更长期的角度来看，全球化进程似乎已经停滞。世界贸易组织（WTO）的数据显示，自2015年以来，全球贸易的增长速度仅与全球经济的增长速度相当。尽管近期地缘政治局势发生了剧变，全球化进程尚未出现逆转的迹象。
On a longer horizon, though, globalization appears to have stalled. WTO data shows that since about 2015, world trade has grown only as fast as the global economy. Despite the recent geopolitical upheavals, globalization has yet to shift into reverse.
政策制定者和经济学家认为，目前还无法确定这些战争，以及美国、中国、欧盟和脱欧后的英国转向保护主义的做法，是否标志着一个日益紧密相连的全球化的终结。
Policymakers and economists say it is too soon to know whether the wars, alongside a pivot toward protectionism in the US, China, the EU and post-Brexit Britain, mark the end of an ever-interconnected world.
“世界显然没有变得更加全球化，”伦敦政治经济学院的副教授托马斯·桑普森（Thomas Sampson）对德国之声（DW）表示，“但我们究竟是真正进入了去全球化的阶段，还是只是改变了贸易伙伴，这仍然是一个未解之谜。”根据欧盟统计局（Eurostat）的数据，自2022年2月俄罗斯全面入侵乌克兰以来，欧盟对俄罗斯管道天然气的依赖程度从2021年底的37%大幅下降至约10%；目前欧盟从俄罗斯进口的石油和煤炭数量已经微不足道。
"The world is certainly not becoming more globalized," Thomas Sampson, an associate professor at the London School of Economics, told DW. "But it's still an open question whether we're actually at deglobalization or just shifting around who we trade with." Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the EU has sharply cut its reliance on Russian pipeline gas from 37% in late 2021 to around 10%, according to Eurostat, the bloc's statistics agency. EU oil and coal imports from Russia are now negligible.
这些变化促使欧盟与美国、挪威、澳大利亚和哈萨克斯坦签署了新的能源合作协议，液化天然气（LNG）逐渐取代了俄罗斯的管道天然气作为能源来源。
These moves spurred new energy deals with the US, Norway, Australia and Kazakhstan, with liquefied natural gas (LNG) replacing Russian pipeline gas.
俄罗斯确实找到了新的能源买家——尤其是中国和印度——这些国家以远低于全球基准价格的价格购买了俄罗斯的石油。
Moscow did find new energy buyers — notably China and India — which took Russian oil at a large discount to global benchmark prices.
总部位于布鲁塞尔的智库布鲁格尔（Bruegel）的研究员卡米尔·雷弗迪（Camille Reverdy）对欧盟在战争结束后是否会恢复与俄罗斯的能源贸易表示怀疑：“如果其他能源供应来源变得可靠的话，我认为欧盟不会再与俄罗斯恢复能源贸易关系。”
Camille Reverdy, an affiliate fellow at the Brussels-based think tank Bruegel, doubts whether the EU will rekindle its energy trade with Moscow when the war ends. "If the alternatives become reliable sources, I don't see it coming back," Reverdy told DW.
2022年2月底伊朗战争爆发时，德黑兰实际上关闭了霍尔木兹海峡——这个全球最重要的能源运输通道之一。沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯联合酋长国通过管道将部分原本需要通过霍尔木兹海峡运输的石油转运到了其他港口。
When the Iran war began in late February, Tehran effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most critical energy transit chokepoints. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates sent some of the missing oil by pipeline to alternative ports.
根据国际能源署的数据，美国、哈萨克斯坦、巴西和委内瑞拉产量的增加弥补了全球石油供应的缺口（即那些“缺失的数百万桶石油”）。据路透社8月报道，多个国家还从自身的战略石油储备中提取了约3亿桶石油。
According to the International Energy Agency, the world also replaced the missing millions of barrels with increased production from the US, Kazakhstan, Brazil and Venezuela. Several nations have also tapped about 300 million barrels from their strategic oil reserves, Reuters reported in August.
冲突已经持续了近七个月，能源价格依然居高不下：在整个战争期间，布伦特原油的价格大多时间都维持在100美元以上。一些分析师现在警告称，到了秋季和冬季，石油供应将变得极其紧张。
Almost seven months into the conflict, energy prices remain elevated, with Brent crude trading above $100 for much of the war. Several analysts are now warning of dangerously tight supply in the fall and winter.
特朗普实施的关税政策也对国际贸易造成了负面影响。例如，根据总部位于华盛顿的彼得森国际经济研究所的数据，美国从中国的进口量去年下降了约28%；与此同时，美国从世界其他地区的进口量则增长了近10%，其中大部分进口来自越南、台湾和墨西哥——这些变化都是美国为减少对中国供应商的依赖而采取的措施。
The squeeze from Trump's tariffs is also weighing on trade. US imports from China, for instance, fell by around 28% last year, according to the Washington-based Peterson Institute for International Economics. At the same time, its imports from the rest of the world climbed by nearly a tenth — much of it from Vietnam, Taiwan and Mexico, as part of rerouting efforts to cut reliance on Chinese suppliers.
特朗普对世界贸易组织（WTO）的攻击引发了另一个重要问题：如果WTO被废除，那么什么将取代它呢？专家们提出了几种替代方案。这些方案包括继续对各国征收关税，或者推动不同经济集团（包括全球南方的金砖国家）之间签订自由贸易协定。
Trump’s attacks on the WTO have raised a sharper question. If the Geneva-based body were shelved, what would replace it? Experts have floated several alternatives. These include continuing Trump's country-by-country tariffs or a web of free trade deals between economic blocs, including BRICS nations of the Global South.
第三种方案由查塔姆研究所等智库提出：欧盟、日本、加拿大、澳大利亚和墨西哥将继续按照WTO的规则进行贸易，其贸易规模之大足以让美国和中国无法忽视。布鲁盖尔经济研究所的雷弗迪认为，欧盟更倾向于改革后的WTO作为替代方案。
The third, mooted by think tanks like Chatham House, would see the EU, Japan, Canada, Australia and Mexico keep trading by WTO-style rules at a scale the US and China could not ignore. Bruegel's Reverdy thinks the EU would prefer a reformed WTO to the alternatives.
她对德国之声（DW）表示：“欧盟仍希望被视为自由和多边贸易的领导者。”她还指出，布鲁塞尔已经在贸易政策方面采取了新的措施，甚至可能将加拿大列为WTO的准成员国。
"The EU still wants to be seen as the leader of free and multilateral trade," she told DW, noting how Brussels has added new layers of trade policy, including possibly making Canada an associate member.
伦敦政治经济学院的桑普森警告说，如果继续推行特朗普推行的“丛林法则”，小型国家将会处于不利地位；他认为，在当前的WTO体系下，小型国家实际上拥有更大的话语权。
LSE's Sampson warned that continuing with Trump's "law of the jungle" would disadvantage smaller countries, who he said have a "bigger voice" under the current WTO system.
桑普森在接受德国之声采访时指出，“人们对美国作为贸易伙伴的信任已经崩溃”，即便有一位民主党总统在任，这种信任的恢复也可能需要多年时间。
Noting how "trust in the US as a trading partner has collapsed," Sampson told DW it could take many years for confidence to return, even with a Democratic president.
与此同时，世贸组织的经济学家们对不同的未来进行了建模，指出沿着地缘政治路线进一步的贸易碎片化可能会使全球国内生产总值（GDP）在2050年前缩减约5%。
WTO economists, meanwhile, have modeled different futures, noting how further trade fragmentation along geopolitical lines could cut global GDP by about 5% by 2050.
在一个世贸组织消失、仅剩下零散自由贸易协定的世界里，全球GDP的降幅可能接近7%，其中规模最小、最贫穷的经济体受到的打击最为严重。该机构表示，加强多边规则则有望使全球GDP提高约3%。
In a world in which the WTO vanished and only a patchwork of free-trade deals remained, GDP could fall closer to 7%, with the smallest and poorest economies hit hardest. Reinforcing multilateral rules, however, could raise global GDP by roughly 3%, the agency said.