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参议院共和党人让特朗普3500亿美元的国防增资计划悬而未决Senate Republicans Are Leaving Trump’s $350 Billion Defense Boost in Limbo

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参议院的共和党议员们计划在本周末离开华盛顿,他们尚未批准唐纳德·特朗普总统提出的3500亿美元国防资金请求。这意味着五角大楼将不得不自行决定其雄心勃勃的开支计划中有多少部分能够被纳入常规预算中。

Senate Republicans are preparing to depart Washington at the end of the week without approving President Donald Trump’s request for $350 billion in defense funds, leaving the Pentagon to confront how much of its ambitious spending plan can fit into the regular budget.

在过去两周里,议员们、国防部副部长史蒂夫·费因伯格以及其他五角大楼高级官员就国防部的总体预算计划(共计1.5万亿美元)举行了多次闭门会议。然而,共和党内部在如何为这些开支提供资金的问题上仍存在分歧;在11月9日休会之前,双方似乎没有可能达成共识。

Lawmakers, Deputy Defense Secretary Steve Feinberg and other senior Pentagon officials held multiple closed-door meetings over the past two weeks about the department’s overall $1.5 trillion budget plan. But Republicans remain divided over how to finance the buildup, and there is no immediate path for the reconciliation package before the recess, which ends Nov. 9.

政府将国防开支计划分为三个资金来源:常规预算(约1.15万亿美元)、通过仅由共和党参与的预算协调程序获得的约3500亿美元,以及用于弥补伊朗战争相关未预算费用的额外670亿美元补充开支。特朗普上周在联合国演讲中表示,他希望国防预算总额达到1.5万亿美元。

The administration has split its defense ambitions among three funding tracks: a regular budget of roughly $1.15 trillion, roughly $350 billion through the Republican-only reconciliation process and a separate $67 billion supplemental spending request to cover unbudgeted costs from the Iran war. Trump said in his address to the United Nations last week that he wants a total defense budget of $1.5 trillion.

虽然参议院中的一些强硬派共和党议员支持这一计划,但那些担心财政赤字的共和党人却不愿在不对其他开支进行削减的情况下增加国防开支。而民主党人(他们通常会为国家安全相关开支提供部分支持)也不愿意为这场在民意调查中不受欢迎的战争提供资金。

Senate defense hawks are on board. But deficit-minded Republicans are unwilling to add hundreds of billions of dollars in defense spending without cuts elsewhere to offset them. Democrats — who usually supply at least some votes for national security spending — are reluctant to help fund an Iran war that polls show is unpopular with voters.

参议院军事委员会主席罗杰·威克(来自密西西比州)表示,他认为参议院仍有时间在本周休会前制定自己的预算方案。不过,参议院预算委员会主席罗恩·约翰逊(来自威斯康星州)表示,在11月中旬的中期选举之前,他并不打算推动任何由共和党单独提出的预算方案。约翰逊指出,本月与他会面的费因伯格及其他五角大楼官员确实为增加国防开支提出了有力的理由,但所需的资金削减措施尚未确定。

Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Mississippi), the Senate Armed Services Committee chair, said he believed there was still time for the Senate to craft its own package before the recess begins this week. But Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wisconsin), whose support as Senate Budget Committee chair would be crucial to moving a Republican-only package, said he had no plans to do so until after November’s midterm elections. Johnson said Feinberg and other Pentagon officials he met with this month made a compelling case for the added spending, but the offsets he would need have not been identified.

“我们必须像对待那些主张增加国防开支的人一样,去满足那些主张削减开支的人的要求,”他说。当被问及这需要采取什么措施时,他回答道:“就必须为此买单。”参议院中的那些主张增加国防开支的议员正在推动一项总额超过3000亿美元的预算方案,该方案包括总统提出的“金穹导弹防御系统”(Golden Dome Missile Defense System)、军火补给及生产线的扩建,以及政府提出的部分额外预算请求。

“We have to satisfy the deficit hawks like we satisfy the defense hawks,” he said. Asked what that would require, he said, “Pay for it.”Senate defense hawks are pushing for a reconciliation package that exceeds $300 billion and includes the president’s Golden Dome missile defense shield, munitions replenishment and production-line expansion, and at least some portion of the administration’s supplemental request.

“我们必须向每一位共和党议员,以及尽可能多的民主党议员阐述这一方案的必要性;即使最终投票结果只有50票对50票,我们也必须继续努力,不断强调这项计划的重要性,”参议院军事委员会成员凯文·克莱默(Kevin Cramer,共和党,北达科他州)说道。“保卫国家是联邦政府最合法、甚至在某些方面是唯一合法的职责。”

“We have to just make the case to every single Republican and as many Democrats as will listen, and even if it comes down to a 50-senator vote, we need to socialize and keep pushing the importance of this,” said Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-North Dakota), a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee. “Defending the country is the most legitimate, and in some respects, the only legitimate thing the federal government does.”

克莱默的家乡北达科他州预计将在“金穹导弹防御系统”的建设中发挥重要作用;他对众议院通过的预算方案表示批评——该方案仅为五角大楼拨款600亿美元。他希望五角大楼能够获得全部3500亿美元的预算。

Cramer, whose state is expected to play a role in Golden Dome, panned the House-passed reconciliation instructions, which set aside only $60 billion for the Pentagon. He wants the Pentagon to get the entire $350 billion.

要在政治和预算层面找到3500亿美元的削减额度来抵消这些开支,无疑是一项艰巨的任务。这笔资金相当于2027年拟议中的可自由支配支出的五分之一,而联邦预算的其余大部分资金都用于社会保障、医疗保险等强制性项目,或是用于偿还债务利息。

Identifying $350 billion in cuts to offset that spending would be a daunting task, both politically and budgetarily. The figure amounts to one-fifth of discretionary spending proposed for 2027, while much of the rest of the federal budget is tied up in mandatory programs such as Social Security and Medicare, or interest on the debt.

五角大楼的官员们已经在考虑:如果国会未能通过预算方案来满足五角大楼的所有国防开支需求,将会发生什么情况。五角大楼主计长杰伊·赫斯特(Jay Hurst)本月表示,如果政府无法通过预算方案获得所有所需的资金,国会将会努力将五角大楼的一些优先事项纳入可自由支配支出的法案中。他特别提到了费因伯格(Feinberg)一直倡导的军火采购计划。

Pentagon officials have already been mulling what happens if Congress does not provide all of the defense plus-up through reconciliation. Pentagon Comptroller Jay Hurst said this month that Congress was working to incorporate some Pentagon priorities into the discretionary spending bill if the administration does not get everything it wants through reconciliation. He specifically pointed to the munitions investments Feinberg has championed.

如果获批,这笔开支将为政府大幅扩大武器生产提供支撑,其中包括长期提升导弹拦截器、“战斧”导弹等武器的产能。五角大楼已与武器制造商达成多项框架协议,但这些协议仍有赖于国会提供资金。

If approved, that spending would underpin the administration’s push to sharply expand weapons production, including a long-term production ramp-up for missile interceptors, Tomahawk missiles and more. The Pentagon has reached several framework agreements with weapons makers, but they depend on Congress providing the money.

将这些优先事项纳入常规预算,未必能解决五角大楼的难题。拨款程序同样陷入停滞。国会目前按现有水平为政府提供资金至12月11日,将重大决定留到“跛脚鸭”会期;届时,议员将在中期选举后回归,对各自政党在下一届国会中的筹码有更清晰的认识。

Moving those priorities into the regular budget wouldn’t necessarily solve the Pentagon’s problem. The appropriations process is also stalled. Congress is funding the government at current levels through Dec. 11, leaving major decisions for the lame-duck session, when lawmakers return after the midterms with a clearer sense of each party’s leverage heading into the next Congress.

“去年我们完成了十一项半的[拨款]法案,希望这次能把它们全部完成,但谁也说不准,”参议院拨款委员会主席、缅因州共和党参议员苏珊·柯林斯说。“这取决于民主党人是否愿意合作。”在国会解决这些重大资金问题之前,五角大楼已经在现有账户之间调拨资金,以满足紧迫的行动需求,包括与伊朗战争相关的费用。

“Last year we got 11 and a half of the [appropriations] bills done, and I hope that we could get them all done, but you never know,” said Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), the Senate Appropriations Committee chair. “That depends on whether the Democrats are going to cooperate.”Even before Congress resolves those larger funding questions, the Pentagon is already reshuffling money among existing accounts to cover immediate operational demands, including costs associated with the Iran war.

该部门已推迟设备维护和部分训练,以应对人员成本高于预期所带来的资金缺口。海军表示,仅支付伊朗战争相关费用就面临60亿至80亿美元的资金缺口。

The department has deferred maintenance and some training to manage shortfalls while facing higher-than-expected personnel costs — and the Navy has said it is $6 billion to $8 billion short just to cover Iran war costs.

五角大楼已请求国会允许其调拨43亿美元现有资金,其中37.6亿美元用于弥补高于预期的人员成本,资金将从舰船建造、飞机采购以及研究与开发项目中划出。

The Pentagon has asked Congress to let it shift $4.3 billion in existing funds, including $3.76 billion for higher-than-expected personnel costs, drawing money from shipbuilding, aircraft procurement and research and development.

“随着这些账户的钱越来越接近耗尽,他们的选择也越来越少,”众议员罗布·Wittman(共和党—弗吉尼亚州)说。他担任众议院军事委员会副主席。“他们过去能够从这些渠道获得资金的许多地方,如今资金都已非常吃紧。”据特拉华州联邦参议员克里斯·库恩斯介绍,五角大楼提出的“资金重新安排”申请有所增加。这类申请允许该部门把国会已经批准的资金从一个账户转移到另一个账户。库恩斯是参议院国防拨款小组委员会职位最高的民主党成员。

“Their options get narrower and narrower as you get closer to these accounts running out of money,” said Rep. Rob Wittman (R-Virginia), the vice chair of the House Armed Services Committee. “Many of the places they’ve been able to go to get these dollars are running very thin now.”There has been an “uptick” in Pentagon reprogramming requests, which allow the department to shift money Congress approved, from one account to another, according to Sen. Chris Coons of Delaware, the top Democrat on the Senate defense appropriations subcommittee. Coons said that as he considers those requests, he has had to balance his opposition to Trump’s war with Iran and making sure that troops in the fight might run out of money, citing problems with the USS Abraham Lincoln’s extended deployment.

库恩斯说,在审议这些申请时,他必须兼顾两方面:一方面反对特朗普对伊朗发动战争,另一方面又要确保参战部队不会因资金耗尽而陷入困境。他提到,“亚伯拉罕·林肯”号航母延长部署所引发的问题就是例证。

库恩斯说:“我意识到,如果他们无法重新安排部分资金,那么已经部署的陆军和海军部队都可能在行动经费上出现缺口。我不希望再出现一次‘林肯’号航母那样的情况,燃料和食品都严重短缺。”

“I’m conscious that there is the possibility that if they are not able to reprogram some funding, you’ve got both Army and Navy units deployed that could run into shortfalls operationally,” Coons said. “I don’t want another USS Lincoln situation where you’ve got a lack of fuel and food.”

赫尔斯特反驳了五角大楼提出的资金重新安排申请在数量和紧迫程度上都明显高于平常的看法。不过,他也承认,“我们列入重新安排范围的事项可能与平时略有不同。”如果额外资金最终未能到位,五角大楼的一些计划可能只会推迟实施。Capital Alpha Partners的华尔街分析师拜伦·卡伦预计,通过预算协调程序设想的部分支出将在未来五至八年内分摊到各项国防预算中。

Hurst disputed the idea that the Pentagon is making substantially more or more urgent reprogramming requests than usual. Still, he acknowledged, “The kinds of things we’re programming might be a little different than normal.”If the extra money never materializes, some of the Pentagon’s plans could just take longer. Byron Callan, a Wall Street analyst at Capital Alpha Partners, expects some of the spending envisioned for reconciliation to be spread across defense budgets over the next five to eight years.

罗得岛州联邦参议员杰克·里德等民主党关键人物表示,三条资金渠道都存在不确定性,因此五角大楼更有必要切实际地确定最重要的事项,并告知国会。

Key Democrats, such as Sen. Jack Reed of Rhode Island, say the uncertainty along all three funding tracks makes it more important that the Pentagon realistically identify its top priorities for Congress.

“他们必须把确实需要的东西列入预算案,”负责拨款事务、同时也是参议院军事委员会资历最深成员的里德说。“这将要求他们压缩某些领域的支出,同时增加弹药等领域的投入。我们需要看到一套连贯的计划,而不是三套不同的方案。”

“What they have to do is put in a budget bill what they absolutely need,” said Reed, an appropriator and the ranking member on the Senate Armed Services Committee. “That will require them to compress their spending in some areas and expand in areas like munitions. We need to see a coherent plan, not three different initiatives.”