巴克莱资本美国利率研究主管伊丽莎白·斯坦顿在一份报告中表示，美国30年期国债收益率有可能达到6%，因为本月的国债市场抛售尚未计入生产力增长持续上升的风险。
By Elizabeth Stanton The US 30-year yield has scope to reach 6% as this month’s Treasury market selloff has yet to price in the risk of a sustained increase in productivity growth, the head of US rates research at Barclays Capital said in a report.
安舒尔·普拉丹写道，市场“继续假设当前较高的中性利率最终将被证明是周期性的，而非长期性的”。在周期性框架下，投资者预计美联储将加息以抑制通胀，但“并不认为这一增长是永久性的”。普拉丹写道，这种观点的主要看跌风险是“一个更具生产力的经济”。美国科技巨头今年在人工智能基础设施上的支出预计将与前三年总和相当。
Markets “continue to assume that today’s elevated neutral rate will ultimately prove cyclical rather than secular,” Anshul Pradhan wrote. In the cyclical framework, investors expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to quell inflation but “do not view that increase as permanent.”The main bearish risk to that view is “a more productive economy,” Pradhan writes. Spending by US technology giants this year on artificial intelligence infrastructure is projected to rival their combined spending over the past three years.
报告称，如果结果是生产力增长持续加速，“美联储将更没有理由将政策利率恢复到远期曲线目前所隐含的水平”，投资者“将需要上调对政策最终稳定水平的预期，从而推高长期收益率”。
If the result is a sustained acceleration in productivity growth, “the Fed would have less reason to return policy rates to the levels currently embedded in the forward curve,” and investors “would need to revise up where policy ultimately settles, pushing long-dated yields higher,” the report says.
“在其他条件相同的情况下，将长期估计值重新定价至短期水平，将随着时间的推移，将30年期收益率的公允价值推高至6%”，这是自2000年6月以来从未超过的水平。
“All else equal, a repricing of long-run estimates higher to short-run ones would over time push the fair value of 30y yields to 6%,” a level last exceeded in June 2000.
周一，美国30年期国债收益率自2002年以来首次突破5.61%，较3月2日创下的今年低点上涨了整整一个百分点。
The US 30-year yield topped 5.61% Monday for the first time since 2002, and has risen by a full percentage point from this year’s low on March 2.
另一方面，普拉丹写道，如果资本支出热潮缓和，导致增长放缓，并让美联储“更没有理由维持高利率”，那么国债可能会上涨。他说，在这种情况下，国债市场的中间期限将受益最大。
On the other hand, Treasuries can rally if the capital spending boom moderates, leading to slower growth and giving the Fed “less reason to keep rates elevated,” Pradhan wrote. The intermediate sectors of the Treasury market would benefit most in that case, he said.
报告称，第三种可能的情景是投资者“要求更高的补偿来持有国债，因为更高的收益率通过利息成本上升恶化了财政前景”。与看跌情景一样，这“将对10至30年期收益率构成最大压力”。
A third possible scenario involves investors “demanding greater compensation to hold Treasury debt as higher yields worsen the fiscal outlook through rising interest costs,” the report says. Like the bearish case, that “would place the greatest pressure on 10- to 30-year yields.”