一位专家表示,总统前往“安全”地区并不是前所未闻的。在备受瞩目的中期选举仅剩几周之际,总统唐纳德·特朗普本周将在倾向于共和党的州领衔举行集会,而批评人士则质问总统为什么不把精力集中在关键的摇摆州上。
An expert said it’s not unheard of for a president to go to "safe" territory. With just weeks until the high-stakes midterm elections, President Donald Trump is set to headline rallies in Republican-favoring states this week -- with critics asking why the president is not instead focusing on key battleground states instead.
一些共和党人和专家表示,此举的目标是全面提升共和党选民在中期选举中的投票率,这些选民今年投票的积极性可能较低,而且在选举年访问此类“安全”州也并非史无前例。一位专家表示,特朗普较低的全国支持率可能被视为一种风险,这也是他没有在竞争更激烈的地区进行拉票的原因。
Some Republicans and experts say the goal is to boost midterm election turnout among Republican voters more generally who might have been less motivated to vote this year, and that this sort of travel to "safe" states during midterm years is not unprecedented. One expert said Trump's low national approval ratings could be seen as a risk -- and a reason he’s not stumping in more competitive areas.
根据共和党全国委员会上周发布的公告,特朗普将于10月1日星期四在俄克拉荷马州杜兰参加一场“中期集会”,并于10月2日星期五在亚拉巴马州莫比尔参加另一场集会。
Trump will join a "Midterm Rally" on Thursday, Oct. 1 in Durant, Oklahoma, and another in Mobile, Alabama on Friday, Oct. 2, according to announcements by the Republican National Committee last week.
这两场集会都将举行在预计在2026年中期选举中倾向于共和党的国会选区和州。
Both rallies will be in congressional districts and states that appear to favor the Republican Party in the 2026 midterm elections.
例如,根据美联社汇编的数据,杜兰位于俄克拉荷马州第二国会选区,特朗普在2024年的大选中在该选区以超过50个百分点的优势获胜。根据美国广播公司新闻网(ABC News)的选情预测,该选区目前由共和党众议员乔什·布雷钦(Josh Brecheen)把持,预计在中期选举中也将稳固支持共和党,全州的州长和参议员竞选情况亦是如此。
Durant, for instance, is located in Oklahoma's 2nd Congressional District, which Trump won by more than 50 percentage points in 2024, according to data compiled by the Associated Press. This district, held by GOP Rep. Josh Brecheen, is also expected to be solidly Republican in the midterms, as are the statewide governor and Senate races, according to ABC News race ratings.
与此同时,莫比尔在十年中期选区重划后被划入亚拉巴马州第一国会选区。这个经重划后倾向于共和党的选区,在2024年大选时若按此边界投票,特朗普将以约40个百分点的优势获胜。
Mobile, meanwhile, was redrawn after mid-decade redistricting to be in Alabama's 1st Congressional District. The redrawn district, favoriting Republicans, would have voted for Trump in 2024 by around 40 points.
根据 ABC News 的选举预测,第二国会选区(该选区此前包括莫比尔市的部分地区)目前由民主党议员肖马里·菲格尔斯(Shomari Figures)代表;不过重新划分选区后,该选区的选民倾向明显偏向共和党——尽管菲格尔斯及其支持者仍计划努力保住自己的席位。同样,根据 ABC News 的预测,阿拉巴马州的参议院选举和州长选举也极有可能由共和党获胜。
The 2nd Congressional District, which formerly included part of Mobile, is currently represented by Democratic Rep. Shomari Figures, but now leans Republican post-redistricting, according to ABC News race ratings -- although Figures and his supporters plan to put up a fight to hold the seat. And the statewide Senate and governor races in Alabama are considered solid Republican, according to ABC News race ratings.
特朗普还将前往那些选举竞争激烈的州。10 月下旬,他计划前往俄亥俄州、爱荷华州和内布拉斯加州参加集会——这些州在 2024 年投票给了他,但在 2026 年将举行激烈的参议院选举。
Trump will also be heading to states with more competitive races. Later in October, he is set to attend rallies in Ohio, Iowa and Nebraska -- states that voted for him in 2024 but are hosting competitive Senate races in 2026.
周一在椭圆形办公室被问及这些前往“红州”(即共和党占优势的州)的竞选活动时,特朗普表示:“我们在这些州的候选人非常优秀”,并抨击了民主党候选人。
Trump, asked about the upcoming red-state campaign trips in the Oval Office on Monday, said "we have great people" in those races, and slammed the Democratic candidates.
然而民主党人认为,特朗普之所以前往阿拉巴马州等共和党占优势的州,是因为共和党方面感到紧张。“我们把他们吓坏了,”民主党州长候选人、前参议员道格·琼斯(Doug Jones)在周日的节目中说道,“他们认为阿拉巴马州是一道‘防线’;现在他们必须保护这道‘防线’……但实际上它已经不再是一道防线了。”不过共和党方面则表示,特朗普在这些州的集会将更有利于整个共和党的利益。
But Democrats are arguing that Trump is going to red states like Alabama because Republicans are nervous. "We're scaring the hell out of them," Democratic gubernatorial candidate and former Sen. Doug Jones argued on MS NOW on Sunday. "They think ... Alabama's a firewall. Now they've got to protect a firewall. Well, it's not a firewall anymore."
周四,共和党全国委员会(RNC)的一位官员向 ABC News 表示,这些集会将有助于提高德克萨斯州和佛罗里达州选民的投票率;共和党正试图在这两个州保住参议院席位和州长职位。
But Republicans say that Trump's red state rallies will benefit the GOP more broadly. An official with the RNC made the case to ABC News on Thursday that the rallies will help turnout in neighboring media markets in Texas and Florida.
选举分析师、萨巴托“水晶球”网站主编凯尔·孔迪克告诉ABC新闻,俄克拉荷马州和阿拉巴马州举行的这两场活动让他“感到费解”,他也不认同有关媒体市场的说法:“那为什么不直接去得克萨斯州和佛罗里达州?”
Republicans are trying to hold on to a Senate seat and governorships in both states. Kyle Kondik, an elections analyst and the managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball, told ABC News that he found the Oklahoma and Alabama events to be "head-scratchers," and didn't buy the media market argument: "Why not just go to Texas and Florida?"
共和党全国委员会新闻秘书纳塔利·巴尔达萨雷周一亮相Newsmax时表示,共和党拥有“充足资源”和“创纪录的现金储备,因此我们的目标是动员民众去投票”。总部位于佐治亚州的共和党战略家瑞安·马奥尼告诉ABC新闻,特朗普前往红州的目的,也是为了让那些原本可能不会出来投票的选民投票。他补充说,由于生活成本上涨,一些共和党基本盘选民可能对特朗普感到失望——近期民调显示,这一问题一直困扰着这位总统。
Separately, RNC National Press Secretary Natalie Baldassarre said in an appearance on Newsmax on Monday that the GOP has the "resources" and "record cash on hand, so the goal here is to drive people to the polls." Georgia-based Republican strategist Ryan Mahoney told ABC News he also felt Trump's travel to red states was about turning out voters who otherwise might not show up. He added that some Republican-base voters may be disenchanted by Trump because of the higher cost of living -- an issue that has plagued the president, according to recent polling.
“绝不乏这样的州、稳固的共和党选区和牢牢支持共和党的州:在这些地方,共和党基本盘选民正逐渐失去参加投票的热情和动力,”马奥尼说。
"There's no shortage of states, solid-red districts, solid-red states [that] are starting to suffer with Republican base voters who lack enthusiasm and motivation to get out and vote," Mahoney said.
不过,马奥尼表示,共和党应当更加关注竞争激烈的选举:“这对共和党人来说可不是什么好形象。”乔治华盛顿大学政治史学者马修·达莱克告诉ABC新闻认为,特朗普会通过这些集会动员缺乏热情的共和党选民,这一说法有一定道理。
Still, Mahoney said the GOP should be more focused on competitive races: "it's not a good look for Republicans." Matthew Dallek, a political historian at George Washington University, told ABC News there's merit to the argument that Trump will turn out unmotivated GOP voters with these rallies.
“特朗普有一种能力,至少当他出现在选票上时,他能让一些通常不参加投票的人出来投票,从某种程度上重塑选民群体,”他说。
"Trump has this ability, at least when he's on the ballot, to turn out some people who don't typically vote, to kind of remake the electorate to some extent," he said.
但达莱克还指出,特朗普的全国支持率很低——根据CNN最近的一项民调,只有33%的美国人赞成特朗普,67%的人不赞成——他说,这种低支持率为总统塑造了一个“有害”的品牌,这或许能解释为什么他没有在竞争更加激烈的地区为竞选站台助选。
But Dallek also pointed to low national approval ratings for Trump -- just 33% of Americans approve of Trump and 67% disapprove, according to a recent CNN poll -- that he said have created a "toxic" brand for the president, which he said could be why he is not stumping in more competitive areas.
孔迪克对特朗普在集会上“居于核心位置”能否帮助那些缺乏热情、已经游离于总统选民联盟之外的共和党基本盘选民,也持怀疑态度。
Kondik was also skeptical that Trump appearing "front and center" at rallies may be helpful for unmotivated GOP voters who have fallen out of the president's coalition.
然而,从历史角度看,达莱克指出,在中期选举周期,现任总统前往“安全”地区并非没有先例。他以贝拉克·奥巴马为例,提到奥巴马2010年曾在洛杉矶和马里兰参加竞选集会;此外,还有2006年的乔治·W·布什(他曾在印第安纳州和佐治亚州等州参加竞选集会)。
From a historical perspective, however, Dallek pointed out that it's not unprecedented for a sitting president to head to "safe" territory during a midterms election cycle. He pointed to Barack Obama, who, for instance, attended rallies in 2010 in Los Angeles and Maryland, as well as George W. Bush in 2006 (who attended rallies in states such as Indiana and Georgia.
“特朗普正在效仿许多前任遵循的一种模式:在中期选举中不受欢迎时,他们外出会前往自己的基本盘所在地,”他说。
"[Trump] is following a pattern that many of his predecessors have followed, which is when they are unpopular in midterm elections, to the extent they travel, they go to their base," he said.