文/Anya Andrianova 美元正结束自6月以来表现最好的一个月，此前美联储重新聚焦遏制通胀，推高了利率预期和美国债券收益率。
By Anya Andrianova The dollar is wrapping up its best month since June after the Federal Reserve’s renewed focus on taming inflation pushed interest-rate expectations and US bond yields higher.
彭博美元现货指数9月上涨1.9%，触及两个月来最高水平。稳健的美国经济数据和升高的通胀风险一直在支撑美元。伊朗战争使能源价格居高不下，并推高国债收益率至历史高位，其中30年期国债收益率升至2002年以来最高水平。
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has risen 1.9% in September, touching the highest level in two months. Solid US economic data and heightened inflation risks have been lifting the currency. The war in Iran has kept energy prices elevated and pushed Treasury yields to historical peaks, with the 30-year reaching the highest level since 2002.
市场目前预计美联储在未来12个月内将加息近一个百分点，进一步增强了美元的强势。
The market is now pricing in nearly one percentage point of Fed rate increases in the next 12 months, further strengthening the greenback.
“美元继续从美国数据中获取信号，”TD Securities外汇策略主管Jayati Bharadwaj表示。“美国数据意外是美元近期的方向性信号，也是美联储能否加息至接近市场定价水平的关键。”
“The dollar has continued to take its cue from US data,” said Jayati Bharadwaj, head of foreign-exchange strategy at TD Securities. “US data surprises are the directional signal for the dollar in the near term and whether the Fed can hike close to how much the markets are priced for.”
美联储三年来首次加息后引发的涨势，继续受到决策者鹰派言论的推动。美联储理事Michael Barr周二重申警告，称可能还需要进一步加息以遏制通胀。同样，纽约联储主席John Williams表示，再加息一次“今年晚些时候可能是合适的，以支持通胀更及时地回归目标”。利差扩大和美国经济强劲增长也迫使美元看空者重新审视立场。摩根士丹利近期放弃了其长期持有的观点，即美元将在2026年下半年走弱。
The rally that followed the Fed’s first rate hike in three years continues to be fueled by policymakers’ hawkish remarks. Fed Governor Michael Barr on Tuesday reiterated his warning that more rate increases will likely be needed to slow inflation. Similarly, New York Fed President John Williams said one more rate hike “may be appropriate late this year to support a timelier return of inflation to target.”Widening interest-rate differentials and robust US economic growth are also forcing dollar bears to rethink their positions. Morgan Stanley recently abandoned its long-held view that the dollar will weaken in the second half of 2026.
交易员目前密切关注定于本周五发布的9月就业报告，这将检验激进货币紧缩押注。美国还定于周三发布8月个人消费支出价格指数，这是美联储首选的通胀衡量指标。
Traders are now closely watching the September jobs report set for this Friday, which will test aggressive monetary tightening bets. The US is also scheduled to release the personal consumption expenditures price index for August, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, on Wednesday.
全球通胀风险居高不下，但并非所有经济体都有能力承受更激进的加息。对利率路径差异的预期正在主导美元兑同行货币的走势前景。
Inflation risks are elevated across the globe, but not all economies are positioned to withstand more aggressive rate increases. The expectation of the rates-path differentials is guiding the dollar outlook against its peers.
9月份，除日元外，所有十国集团货币均兑美元走弱。日本当局介入外汇市场的风险上升，以及对日本央行进一步加息的预期，正在支撑日元。
All Group-of-10 currencies except the yen have weakened against the dollar in September. The rising risks of Japanese authorities stepping into the foreign-exchange market and expectations of more rate hikes from the Bank of Japan are supporting the yen.
然而，一些指标显示美元的涨势可能正在乏力。衡量美元动能的一个指标周二升至70以上，表明美元可能已超买。9月24日，彭博美元相对强弱指数也进入了高估区域。
However, some indicators suggest the dollar’s run may be tiring. A measure of the greenback’s momentum climbed above 70 on Tuesday, indicating it might be overbought. On Sept. 24, Bloomberg’s relative strength index for the dollar had reached overvalued territory as well.
“我们认为美元开始显得透支了，”加拿大帝国商业银行资本市场策略师Noah Buffam表示。
“We think the dollar is beginning to look stretched,” said Noah Buffam, strategist at CIBC Capital Markets.
高盛集团全球外汇及利率预测主管Kamakshya Trivedi预计美元将在当前区间内波动，预测美联储将仅在10月再加息一次。
Kamakshya Trivedi, global head of foreign exchange and interest rates forecasts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., expects the dollar to trade within its current range, predicting the Fed will only raise rates one more time in October.