詹姆斯·梅杰(James Mayger)报道,澳大利亚8月通胀降温,消化了燃油成本飙升的影响,并促使交易员降低对澳大利亚央行在下次会议上再次加息的押注。
By James Mayger Australian inflation cooled in August, absorbing a surge in fuel costs and prompting traders to wind back bets on the Reserve Bank delivering a follow-up increase in interest rates at its next meeting.
澳大利亚统计局周三公布的数据显示,备受关注的消费者价格截尾均值指标较上月上升0.2%,上月涨幅为0.5%。按年计算,核心通胀率为3.6%,与市场预估及上月读数持平。
The closely watched trimmed-mean gauge of consumer prices rose 0.2% from the prior month, when it climbed 0.5%, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed Wednesday. On an annual basis, core inflation came in at 3.6%, matching estimates and the prior month’s reading.
澳元下跌0.3%;对政策高度敏感的三年期债券收益率下降9个基点至4.88%,因交易员下调了对澳大利亚央行近期再次加息的预期。
The Australian dollar slipped 0.3% while the yield on policy-sensitive three-year bonds dropped nine basis points to 4.88% as traders trimmed expectations the RBA will be quick to hike again.
货币市场对11月会议加息的定价概率约为28%,低于数据公布前约40%的概率。
Money markets priced a roughly 28% probability of a rate hike at the November meeting, down from about a 40% chance prior to the print.
自去年年底以来,澳大利亚一直应对重新加剧的通胀压力:需求过剩与产能约束相冲突,而美伊战争导致的能源价格飙升使问题进一步恶化。冲突短期内难有结束希望,加之布伦特原油交易价格突破每桶100美元,发达经济体不得不提高借贷成本。
Australia has been grappling with renewed inflation pressures since late last year as excess demand runs up against capacity constraints, an issue exacerbated by soaring energy prices due to the US-Iran war. With little prospect of an early conclusion to the conflict and Brent crude trading over $100 a barrel, developed economies are having to increase borrowing costs.
顽固的通胀迫使澳大利亚央行今年四次加息,本周最近一次加息将借贷成本推至2011年末以来的最高水平。本月,澳大利亚政策制定者也与欧洲、美国和日本的 counterparts 一同收紧政策,以应对中东能源供应持续受到威胁所引发的物价压力。周三发布的通胀报告还显示:
Sticky inflation forced the RBA to raise rates four times this year, with the latest hike this week taking borrowing costs to the highest level since late 2011. Australian policymakers joined counterparts in Europe, the US and Japan in tightening this month to tackle escalating price pressures driven by the ongoing threat to Middle East energy supplies. Wednesday’s inflation report also showed: