香港似乎将在未来几个月迎来一轮加息冲击，但分析师表示，与上一轮利率周期（2022年至2023年）相比，香港房地产市场不太可能遭受同等程度的冲击。
尽管美联储本月早些时候上调了基准利率，香港大型银行迄今仍维持利率不变，但如果美联储今年晚些时候继续收紧政策，市场普遍预计这些银行将加息。
Hong Kong looks set to be hit by a wave of interest rate rises in the coming months, but the city’s property market is unlikely to suffer the same level of damage as during the last rate cycle in 2022-2023, according to analysts.
摩根士丹利周一在一份报告中称，美联储重新收紧政策与中国内地需求走弱，令人们“重新想起2022年至2023年那段令人不安的时期”，当时香港房地产价格一度下跌两位数百分比。
但分析师强调，与2022年相比，香港房地产市场更有条件应对加息带来的冲击：银行持有更多存款，人才持续流入也带动了本地需求。
Though major Hong Kong banks have so far held rates steady despite the US Federal Reserve raising its benchmark rate earlier this month, they are widely expected to increase them if the Fed follows through with further tightening later this year.
周二，对即将到来的加息的担忧显现出来：越秀地产在油塘The Atlas项目的住宅单位上提供近30%的折扣。
据中原地产，经折扣后的平均价格为每平方英尺13,988港元，是十年来九龙市区楼盘录得的最低价格，甚至低于长江实业的Coast Line II项目于2023年在同一区推出时的价格，当时该项目还引发了开发商之间的价格战。
The combination of renewed Fed tightening and weaker demand on the Chinese mainland had “revived uncomfortable memories” of 2022-2023, when property prices in Hong Kong plunged by double-digit levels, Morgan Stanley said in a report on Monday.
不过，分析师表示，香港房地产市场前景与2022年至2023年有若干不同；摩根士丹利预计，利率冲击对香港房地产上升周期而言将是“一个小插曲，而非停滞”。
But analysts stressed that the city’s property market was in a better position to deal with the fallout of higher interest rates than in 2022, with banks carrying more deposits and steady talent inflows boosting local demand.
首先，摩根士丹利预计，与2022年至2023年相比，接下来这轮加息周期将“短”且“浅”。该行表示，未来六个月美联储可能加息0.75个百分点，而在2022年至2023年的17个月里，利率飙升了逾5个百分点。
对本地借贷成本的传导也可能比过去更为有限。摩根士丹利表示，随着香港银行贷存比降至19年来低位，银行对批发融资的需求随之下降。
Concern over the looming rate increases was visible on Tuesday, when Yuexiu Property offered nearly 30 per cent discounts on the flats at its The Atlas project in Yau Tong.
该投行预计，作为香港银行同业拆息利率、也是大多数按揭贷款定价基准的一个月HIBOR，到3月将上升约0.5个百分点至3.5%，而最优惠利率仅会上调0.125个百分点。
报告称：“2026年至2027年不会重演2022年至2023年的情景。”
The discounted prices – which averaged HK$13,988 per square foot – were the lowest seen for a project in urban Kowloon in a decade, according to Centaline Property.
CBRE高级董事陆伯文也作出了类似区分。他指出，2022年至2023年香港楼市所受的冲击“反映了持续累积的紧缩压力”，买家承受了一轮 prolonged and rapid rate-increase cycle. Wait English only. Need Chinese. 一轮持续时间较长且升幅迅速的加息周期冲击. Keep quote only around reflected phrase.楼市起步基础 also stronger.
They were even lower than CK Asset’s Coast Line II launch in the same district in 2023, which sparked a price war among developers at the time. Nevertheless, analysts said the outlook for Hong Kong property was different from 2022-2023 in several ways, with Morgan Stanley saying it expected the rate shock to be “a hiccup, not a stall” for the city’s property upcycle.
Primary transactions... "在美联储最近一次加息前，2026年一手市场成交量较2023年同期高出38.2%，二手市场成交量则上升13.4%" Is "transactions" volume likely transaction volumes. Data. Could say 成交额. Primary-market transactions likely volume, not specified. "成交规模" safer? Hong Kong market data often primary market transactions "一手market transactions".
For one thing, Morgan Stanley expects the coming rate increase cycle to be “short” and “shallow” compared with 2022-2023. The Fed is likely to raise rates by 0.75 percentage points over the next six months, whereas in 2022-2023 rates soared by more than 5 percentage points over 17 months, according to the bank. The pass-through to local borrowing costs is also likely to be more limited than in the past, as Hong Kong’s loan-to-deposit ratio has fallen to a 19-year low, reducing banks’ need for wholesale funding, according to Morgan Stanley.
Could translate 成交量. "before latest Fed rate increase" modifying levels: 2026 before latest hike compared to 2023 levels. Sentence: Primary-market transactions in 2026 were 38.2 per cent above 2023 levels before the latest Fed rate increase, while secondary transactions were up 13.4 per cent.
The investment bank expects the one-month Hibor – an interbank lending rate in Hong Kong, which serves as the basis for most mortgages – to rise about 0.5 percentage points to 3.5 per cent by March, with prime rates increasing by just 0.125 percentage points.
Means latest hike yet to occur? "before latest Fed rate increase" perhaps before Fed's latest rate rise. We say "在美联储最近一次加息前，2026年一手市场成交量较2023年高出..." Good. Meanwhile rents..."developers likely use discounts and financing incentives rather than broad headline price cuts" 发展商 likely discounts (individual unit discounts) and financing incentives rather than across-the-board advertised price cuts.
“2026-2027 is not a deja vu of 2022-2023,” the report said. Angus Luk, senior director at CBRE, made a similar distinction, pointing out that the damage caused to Hong Kong property in 2022-2023 “reflected cumulative tightening pressure”, with buyers facing the impact of a prolonged and rapid rate-increase cycle.
"提供折价和融资优惠，而非全面下调名义房价". Better common market language: "发展商更可能通过提供折扣和融资优惠，而非大范围下调挂牌价，来吸引买家." Fine."Morgan Stanley expects property prices to stay broadly flat in fourth quarter before rising 5% in 2027." Need perhaps before rising means Q4 flat, then 2027 +5.
The property market is also starting from a stronger base than in 2022-2023. Primary-market transactions in 2026 were 38.2 per cent above 2023 levels before the latest Fed rate increase, while secondary transactions were up 13.4 per cent, CBRE data shows.
"预计第四季度房价将大致持平，到2027年上涨5%." Talent inflows: "it noted" 该行指出. "人才净流入"? steady talent inflows = 人才持续流入. demand. Bull case: "在乐观情景下，如果...明年房价可能上涨10%，并回到2018年峰值". Conditions perhaps "中东紧张局势缓解、油价恢复正常以及内地经济再平衡加快".
Rents, meanwhile, have risen 10.6 per cent since 2023, while the median monthly income for two-person households has increased 10 per cent to HK$33,000 (US$4,200), according to CBRE. However, Luk still expects price consolidation, slower transactions and wider negotiation margins in the secondary market.
Good. Need output only.对本地借贷成本的传导也可能比过去更为有限。摩根士丹利表示，随着香港银行贷存比降至19年来低位，银行对批发融资的需求随之下降。
该投行预计，作为香港银行同业拆息利率、也是大多数按揭贷款定价基准的一个月HIBOR，到3月将上升约0.5个百分点至3.5%，而最优惠利率仅会上调0.125个百分点。
报告称：“2026年至2027年不会重演2022年至2023年的情景。”
Developers were likely to use discounts and financing incentives rather than broad headline price cuts, he said.
CBRE高级董事陆伯文也作出了类似区分。他指出，2022年至2023年香港楼市所受的冲击“反映了持续累积的紧缩压力”，买家承受了一轮持续时间较长且升幅迅速的加息周期冲击。
Morgan Stanley expects property prices to stay broadly flat in the fourth quarter before rising 5 per cent in 2027.
楼市起步的基础也比2022年至2023年更为稳固。CBRE数据显示，在美联储最近一次加息前，2026年一手市场成交量较2023年高出38.2%，二手市场成交量则上升了13.4%。
Steady talent inflows were helping to sustain demand for property in Hong Kong, it noted.
与此同时，自2023年以来，租金已上涨10.6%；据CBRE称，两人家庭的每月收入中位数上涨了10%，升至3.3万港元（4,200美元）。
不过，陆伯文仍预计楼价会经历调整，二手市场成交速度放缓，议价空间扩大。他表示，发展商更可能通过提供折扣和融资优惠，而非全面下调挂牌价，来吸引买家。
In a bull case, prices could gain 10 per cent next year and return to their 2018 peak if Middle East tensions ease, oil prices normalise and mainland economic rebalancing accelerates, it added.
摩根士丹利预计，第四季度房价将大致持平，到2027年上涨5%。该行指出，人才持续流入有助于维持香港楼市需求。
报告还称，在乐观情景下，如果中东紧张局势缓解、油价恢复正常、内地经济再平衡加快，明年房价可能上涨10%，并回到2018年的峰值。
UBS struck a more cautious note, saying interest from mainland investors in Hong Kong property assets remained limited in a research report published on Monday.
瑞银的语气更为谨慎，称周一发布的一份研究报告显示，中国内地投资者对香港房地产资产的兴趣仍然有限。
这家欧洲银行预计，香港房价将在第四季度温和回调，2026年全年涨幅为5%至10%，低于今年迄今12%的涨幅。
The European bank expects home prices to correct moderately in the fourth quarter, putting full-year 2026 growth at 5 per cent to 10 per cent, below the 12 per cent gain so far this year. By Peggy Ye