新加坡，9月30日——周三，全球债券市场出现波动，预计将迎来多年来表现最糟糕的一个月份。导致这一状况的原因包括政府财政状况恶化、债券发行量激增以及通货膨胀上升；同时，持续了七个月的美国-以色列对伊朗的战争也推高了能源成本。
SINGAPORE, Sept 30 - Global bonds wobbled on Wednesday and were set for their worst month in years, hit by a toxic mix of deteriorating government finances, a glut of issuances and rising inflation as the seven-month-old US-Israeli war on Iran keeps energy costs elevated.
相比之下，股市表现较好，基本上没有受到债券收益率飙升的影响，在亚洲市场依然保持乐观态势。
Meanwhile, stocks fared better, largely unfazed by the surge in bond yields and were upbeat in Asia.
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借贷成本的上升已成为投资者关注的核心问题，因为政府债券的收益率是全球市场的基准，也是投资高风险股票时的参考价格，同时也是抵押贷款和企业借款的定价依据。
The rise in borrowing costs has been front-and-centre for investors, given that sovereign yields are an anchor for global markets, a reference price for investing in riskier stocks and a benchmark for mortgages and corporate borrowing.
作为基准的10年期美国国债收益率在亚洲市场维持在2007年以来的最高水平（5.2383%），预计本月将上涨近50个基点，这是大约两年来的最大涨幅。债券收益率与债券价格呈反向变动关系：收益率上升时，债券价格下跌；收益率下降时，债券价格上升。
Benchmark 10-year US Treasury yields held near their highest point since 2007 at 5.2383% in Asia and were set for a rise of nearly 50 basis points this month, the largest in about two years. Bond yields move inversely to prices. The 2-year yield fell slightly to 4.8889% after New York Federal Reserve President John Williams pushed back against expectations for earlier policy tightening, though yields remain more than 50 bps higher for the month.
在纽约联邦储备银行行长约翰·威廉姆斯表示不会提前收紧货币政策后，2年期国债收益率略有下降至4.8889%；不过，本月该收益率仍比去年同期高出50多个基点。
"This is becoming much bigger than another repricing of the next few central bank meetings," said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo. "I do think we are moving towards a structurally higher-yield regime ...
“这已经不仅仅是一次普通的利率调整了，”Saxo银行的首席投资策略师Charu Chanana表示，“我认为我们正朝着一个长期利率水平更高的环境迈进……要使收益率重新回到投资者在（全球金融危机）后习惯的极低水平，难度显然要大得多。”日本的国债收益率目前处于几十年来的高位；而德国和法国的10年期政府债券收益率本周也创下了17年和18年来的新高。
The hurdle for yields to return sustainably to the ultra-low levels investors became accustomed to after the (Global Financial Crisis) looks much higher." Yields in Japan are hovering near multi-decade highs , while 10-year government bond yields in Germany and France hit 17-year and 18-year peaks this week. ## DEFYING THE YIELD SURGE While a persistently higher risk-free rate increases the cost of refinancing for companies and weighs on growth, its impact on stocks has thus far been relatively limited.
挑战收益率飙升的挑战虽然持续上升的无风险利率增加了企业的再融资成本，从而对经济增长构成了压力，但其对股市的影响迄今为止仍然相对有限。
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares excluding Japan (.MISX00000PUS), opens new tab rose 0.2% in early trading and was on track for a monthly fall of just over 1%.
MSCI涵盖亚太地区（不包括日本）股票的最广泛指数（.MISX00000PUS）在早盘交易中上涨了0.2%，预计本月将下跌略超过1%。韩国的Kospi指数则上涨了0.9%，预计本月将基本持平；纳斯达克期货上涨0.13%，标准普尔500指数期货上涨0.16%。欧洲斯托克50指数期货和德国DAX指数期货均上涨了0.5%，英国富时100指数期货上涨了0.4%。
rose 0.9% and was set to end the month little changed, while South Korea's Kospi was headed for a monthly gain of 1.4%. Traffic signs in front of the Bank of Japan building in Tokyo, Japan, June 15, 2026. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab Nasdaq futures edged 0.13% higher and S&P 500 futures added 0.16%. EUROSTOXX 50 futures and DAX futures advanced 0.5% each, while FTSE futures tacked on 0.4%.
股市的韧性主要源于企业盈利的强劲表现、全球经济的稳定发展，以及对人工智能技术的持续关注。
Much of the resilience in equity markets can be attributed to upbeat corporate earnings, strength in the global economy and continued hype around artificial intelligence.
花旗银行亚太区交易策略主管Mohammed Apabhai在一份报告中表示：“令我们惊讶的是股市的反应如此乐观——名义GDP的增长推动了投资者对盈利前景的积极预期。”他特别提到了近期债券收益率的上升。“美国股市确实对债券收益率的上升做出了反应，但这种反应主要体现在非科技板块。”他还提到，在与纽约的宏观基金和机构投资者的会议上，许多人询问债券收益率还能升至多高、大型企业会在什么情况下缩减资本支出，以及股市何时会做出反应。
"What was surprising to us was the sanguine reaction of the equity market where the growth in nominal GDP was driving earnings optimism," said Citi's head of Asia-Pacific trading strategy Mohammed Apabhai in a note, referring to the recent rise in bond yields. "US equity markets are reacting to the rise in bond yields but only outside of the tech space." He added that, in meetings with macro funds and institutional investors in New York, many asked how high bond yields could go, at what level hyperscalers might scale back capital spending and when equity markets would react.
在货币市场方面，受美国债券收益率上升的推动，美元本月预计将上涨2%；欧元汇率跌至16个月来的低点（1.1336美元），预计本月将下跌2.4%，因为欧元在全球能源危机和欧洲政治风险加剧的背景下表现疲软。英镑下跌0.03%至1.3227美元，预计本月将下跌2.4%。日元汇率则维持在157.03美元/日元，预计本月将上涨1.7%，投资者因担心东京和华盛顿可能联合干预汇率而谨慎行事，不敢进一步压低日元汇率。
In currency markets, the dollar was on track for a monthly gain of 2%, aided by the rise in US yields. That left the euro trading near a 16-month low at $1.1336. It was headed for a monthly loss of 2.4% as the currency struggles in the face of a global energy shock and growing political risk in Europe. Sterling fell 0.03% to $1.3227 and was set to lose 2.4% for the month. The yen , however, steadied at 157.03 per dollar and was eyeing a monthly gain of 1.7%, with investors wary of pushing the currency lower due to the threat of a joint intervention by Tokyo and Washington.
在商品市场中，周三油价上涨：布伦特原油期货价格上涨0.56%，达到每桶103.16美元；美国原油价格上涨0.11%，达到每桶89.49美元。由于担心中东战争导致的供应中断会持续较长时间，这两种原油的价格都预计会出现月度涨幅。现货黄金价格下跌0.2%，降至每盎司4,171.93美元。
In commodities, oil prices rose on Wednesday, with Brent crude futures up 0.56% to $103.16 a barrel, while US crude edged 0.11% higher to $89.49. Both were set for monthly gains, on concerns about prolonged supply disruptions due to the ongoing Middle East war. Spot gold was down 0.2% at $4,171.93 an ounce.