东京——尽管油价下跌,全球债券收益率仍面临持续的上行压力。中东冲突的不确定性令投资者难以判断局势,而财政担忧再度浮现。
TOKYO -- Global bond yields are facing persistent upward pressure despite falling oil prices, as uncertainty over the conflict in the Middle East keeps investors guessing and fiscal fears resurface.
华尔街隔夜交易中,美国30年期国债收益率升至5.62%,创下约24年来最高水平。基准10年期国债收益率也维持高位,达到5.23%.周三早间,抛售潮蔓延至东京,基准10年期日本国债收益率升至3.095%。20年期和30年期国债收益率也双双上涨。债券收益率与债券价格呈反向变动。
Overnight on Wall Street, the yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury hit 5.62%, its highest level in roughly 24 years. The benchmark 10-year yield also remained elevated, at 5.23%. The selloff spilled into Tokyo on Wednesday morning, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond rising to 3.095%. The 20-year and 30-year yields also climbed. Bond yields move inversely to prices.
欧洲债券市场也出现类似走势。周二,德国和英国国债收益率一度升至数十年来的高位。
European bond markets saw similar moves. On Tuesday, yields in Germany and the U.K. briefly climbed to multidecade highs.
据Fitch Solutions旗下BMI的一份报告,利率上升已蔓延至美国整条收益率曲线,尤其是被称为“腹部”的中等期限部分,其他经济体也出现了类似变动。
According to a report by BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, the rise in interest rates has extended across the U.S. yield curve, particularly in the "belly," or intermediate maturities, with similar shifts seen in other economies.
报告称:“美国整条收益率曲线都已上移,尤其是‘腹部’部分,其他经济体也出现了同样的趋势。”较高的收益率反映了“经济增长走强、通胀上升、财政担忧加剧,以及超大规模企业大额发债等因素的共同作用”。这里的超大规模企业是指运营超大规模云计算和数据中心网络的科技巨头。尽管油价下跌,债券收益率仍处于高位。
"The whole curve for the U.S. has shifted higher, particularly at the 'belly,' a trend we have seen for other economies as well," the report said. Higher yields reflect "a combination of stronger growth, higher inflation, growing fiscal concerns as well as significant issuance by hyperscalers," the report said, referring to large tech companies that operate massive cloud computing and data center networks. Yields stayed hot despite a drop in oil prices.
原油期货价格已从近期高点回落。周三,美国西得克萨斯中质原油(WTI)期货价格约为每桶90美元,低于本月早些时候突破100美元的水平。布伦特原油期货价格也从9月份约每桶110美元的高位回落后稳定在103美元。
Oil futures have fallen from their recent peaks, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude trading around $90 per barrel on Wednesday, down from over $100 earlier this month. Brent futures have also stabilized from their September peak of around $110 per barrel to $103 now.
近期油价回落之际,市场对供应紧张的担忧有所缓和。本月早些时候,中东军事打击损坏油轮和沙特能源设施,令供应担忧升温。不过,油价仍高于2月下旬中东冲突爆发前的水平,当时WTI和布伦特原油价格约为每桶60至70美元。
The recent decline comes as fears of a supply crunch subside. Earlier this month, worries grew after military strikes in the Middle East damaged tankers and Saudi energy facilities. However, oil prices remain higher than they were before the Middle East conflict broke out in late February, when WTI and Brent were trading around $60 to $70 a barrel.
美伊冲突仍存在高度不确定性。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普周六表示,他拒绝了伊朗一项有条件的重开霍尔木兹海峡的提议。周日,他说,在11月中期选举前国内燃油成本高企、政治压力加剧的情况下,华盛顿正“非常认真”地考虑限制美国柴油出口,以压低国内价格。汽车行业机构RAC周一表示,英国柴油价格已飙升至历史新高。
Uncertainty over the U.S.-Iran conflict remains high. U.S. President Donald Trump on Saturday revealed that he rejected a conditional Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. On Sunday, he said Washington is "very seriously" considering a ban on U.S. diesel exports to hold down domestic prices amid political pressure over high fuel costs ahead of the November midterm elections. U.K. diesel prices have surged to a record high, according to motoring body RAC on Monday.
Rystad Energy首席经济学家克劳迪奥·加林贝蒂在一份报告中称,“柴油出口禁令的讨论是能源市场近期最具影响的政策问题”。他表示,正式禁令将推动欧洲和拉丁美洲的油价“大幅上涨”,并解释称成品油库存已经很低。他补充说,在美国,由于墨西哥湾沿岸炼油企业很快将被迫降低开工量,汽油和航空燃油价格“将随时间推移而上涨”。
"The diesel export ban discussion is the most consequential near-term policy question for energy markets," Rystad Energy chief economist Claudio Galimberti said in a note. A formal ban would push prices "sharply higher in Europe and Latin America," he said, explaining that product stocks are already low. In the U.S., gasoline and jet fuel prices "would rise over time as U.S. Gulf Coast refiners would be forced to reduce their runs before long," he added.
至于10月与伊朗解决冲突的前景,加林贝蒂称,这种结果不太可能实现。
As for the prospects of a resolution with Iran in October, Galimberti said such an outcome was unlikely.
除通胀持续高企的担忧外,财政问题也令债券市场承压。特朗普承诺,如果共和党赢得中期选举,他将向每一位美国成年人发放5000美元。在法国,修复公共财政的努力进展缓慢,明年将举行总统选举,这加剧了人们对出台更多扩张性政策的担忧。
Alongside concerns over sticky inflation, fiscal worries are also weighing on bond markets. Trump has promised to give $5,000 to every adult American if his Republican Party wins the midterm elections. In France, where efforts to repair public finances have lagged, a presidential election will be held next year, fueling concerns over the possibility of more expansionary policies.
英国国家统计局上周发布的数据显示,英国公共部门8月份净借款额达到183亿英镑(238亿美元),远超此前预测。
Public-sector net borrowing in the U.K. reached 18.3 billion pounds ($23.8 billion) in August, according to data released by the Office for National Statistics last week, far exceeding forecasts.
市场难以判断各国央行的加息节奏。CME“美联储观察”工具显示,联邦基金期货表明,美联储在下月政策会议上加息的概率为47%,低于上周近70%的水平。周二,纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯表示“没有必要急于行动”,并暗示该央行今年可能只需再加息一次。
Markets are struggling to gauge the pace of rate hikes by central banks. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, Fed funds futures imply a 47% chance of a rate increase at the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy meeting next month, down from nearly 70% last week. On Tuesday, New York Fed President John Williams said there was "no need for urgency," and signaled that the central bank may need to lift interest rates only once more this year.
9月,美联储将基准隔夜利率上调25个基点,升至3.75%至4.00%的区间。
The Fed in September raised its benchmark overnight interest rate 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%.
日本央行本月早些时候也加息25个基点后,投资者转而预计该央行将在12月而非10月加息。Totan Research和Totan ICAP的数据显示,10月加息的概率为23%,而12月加息的概率超过80%。
In Japan, investors are leaning toward a December rate hike, rather than one in October, after the Bank of Japan also raised rates 25 basis points earlier this month. Totan Research and Totan ICAP data show a 23% chance of an October increase, compared with odds of more than 80% for December.
随着通胀压力加剧,印度等新兴经济体也面临各自的政策困境,使利率前景更加复杂。
Emerging economies such as India face their own policy dilemma as inflationary pressures build, complicating the outlook for interest rates.
印度央行8月连续第四次会议维持利率不变,但市场目前越来越预计该央行将在10月加息。印度约90%的原油需求需通过进口来满足。
While the Reserve Bank of India kept rates unchanged for a fourth consecutive meeting in August, markets now increasingly predict the central bank will raise rates in October. India relies on imports to meet around 90% of its crude oil demand.