詹姆斯·平井：衡量法国债券风险的一项指标又迈过一个重要节点，因为投资者正警惕明年可能出现的政治动荡。
By James Hirai A measure of French bond risk reached another milestone as investors gird for potential political upheaval next year.
投资者购买法国10年期国债而非更安全的德国同类债券所要求的额外收益率，自2012年以来首次升至120个基点。一些分析师表示，如果财政和政治不确定性恶化，这一水平可能很快便会触及。
The extra yield investors demand to buy France’s 10-year bonds over safer German equivalent debt rose to 120 basis points for the first time since 2012. It’s a level that some analysts said was within reach if fiscal and political uncertainty deteriorated.
在距离明年总统选举只剩七个月之际，反对党仍不愿与即将卸任的埃马纽埃尔·马克龙政府妥协，投资者也为此深感不安。据本周早些时候发布的一项投票意向调查，极右翼候选人马琳·勒庞和极左翼候选人让-吕克·梅朗雄预计都能进入第二轮决选。
Investors are on edge ahead of next year’s presidential election, as opposition parties are reluctant to compromise with President Emmanuel Macron’s outgoing administration just seven months ahead of elections. Far-right candidate Marine Le Pen and far-left rival Jean-Luc Mélenchon are expected to make it through to the second-round runoff, according to a survey of voting intentions released earlier this week.
该国的财政风险也持续受到关注。法国债务机构周二晚宣布，计划明年回购后净发行总额达3400亿欧元（3860亿美元）的中长期国债，规模将创历史新高。政府预计于周四公布2027年预算。
The nation’s fiscal risks also continue to draw attention. France’s debt agency announced late on Tuesday it plans to sell a total of €340 billion ($386 billion) in medium- and long-term debt net of buybacks next year, the most ever. The government is due to release its 2027 budget on Thursday.
随着经济增速大幅放缓，以及立场分裂的议会反对紧缩措施，法国一直难以遏制公共财政状况持续恶化。政府赤字占经济产出的比例预计将在2026年从2025年的5.1%升至约5.4%，而政府最初的目标是使这一比例小幅收窄。
The nation has struggled to get a grip on runaway public finances as economic growth slows sharply and a fragmented parliament pushes back against austerity measures. The deficit is on track to swell to around 5.4% of economic output in 2026 instead of narrowing slightly from 5.1% in 2025 as the government initially targeted.
政治和财政波动已导致法国国债在近期全球抛售潮中表现落后。法国国债与德国国债的利差在过去四个月几乎翻倍，长期融资成本也升至2002年以来未曾见过的水平。
The political and fiscal volatility has caused French bonds to underperform in the recent global selloff. The spread over Germany has almost doubled over the past four months, and long-term borrowing costs rose to levels last seen in 2002.