根据周三发布的一项新的NBCUniversal Local/Telemundo Station Group民调，相对多数的可能加州选民支持11月州投票中的一项提案，该提案将对最富有的加州人征收一次性财富税，但该措施仍未达到多数支持。在民调中，48%表示他们会对该提案投“赞成”票，而38%表示会投“反对”票。另有14%表示尚未决定。“赞成”方10个百分点的领先优势超出了该民调的误差范围，即每一方支持率的误差为正负4个百分点。
A plurality of likely California voters support a proposal on the state’s November ballot that would impose a one-time wealth tax on the richest Californians, but the measure is still short of majority support, according to a new NBCUniversal Local/Telemundo Station Group poll released Wednesday. In the poll, 48% said they would vote “yes” on the proposal, while 38% said they would vote “no.”Another 14% said they were undecided. The 10-point lead for “yes” is outside the poll’s margin of error, which is plus or minus 4 percentage points for each side’s support level.
根据一项针对加州的配套调查，拉美裔可能选民中的差距几乎相同：50%表示会投“赞成”票，40%表示会投“反对”票，10%表示尚未决定。两项调查均于9月21日至24日进行。所谓的亿万富翁税——将在11月投票中以“第40号提案”出现——将对净资产超过11亿美元的加州人资产征收一次性5%的税，并要求州政府将新收入的90%用于医疗保健。
The spread was almost identical among Hispanic likely voters, according to a companion survey of California: 50% said they’d vote “yes,” 40% said they’d vote “no,” and 10% said they were undecided. Both surveys were conducted Sept. 21-24. The so-called billionaire tax — which will appear on the November ballot as “Proposition 40” — would implement a one-time 5% tax on the assets of Californians with net worths exceeding $1.1 billion, and it would require the state to spend 90% of the new revenue on healthcare.
剩余10%将在教育和食品援助项目之间分配。除了对净资产超过11亿美元者征收一次性税外，该措施如果获得通过，还将对净资产在10亿美元至11亿美元之间的个人征收较低税额。这些税项将追溯适用于截至2026年1月1日居住在该州的任何人。该提案使加州民主党领导人产生分歧。知名支持者——包括可能参加2028年总统竞选的众议员罗·卡纳，以及曾竞选州长但未成功的亿万富翁活动人士汤姆·斯泰尔——认为，这将有助于缩小收入不平等差距，并帮助弥补因总统唐纳德·特朗普“大而美法案”中医疗补助削减而造成的州预算缺口。
The remaining 10% would be split between education and food assistance programs. In addition to the one-time tax on those worth more than $1.1 billion, the measure, if it is passed, would implement a smaller tax on individuals worth between $1 billion and $1.1 billion. The taxes would apply retroactively to anyone living in the state as of Jan. 1, 2026. The proposal has divided Democratic leaders in California. Prominent proponents — including Rep. Ro Khanna, a potential 2028 presidential candidate, and Tom Steyer, a billionaire activist who unsuccessfully ran for governor — argue it would help close income inequality gaps and help make up for state budget shortfalls as a result of Medicaid cuts in President Donald Trump’s “big, beautiful bill.”
该投票措施的反对者，包括州长加文·纽森及其今年接任者的民主党候选人哈维尔·贝塞拉认为，该倡议将导致富有的投资者和科技领袖逃离加州。这项提案由加州大型医疗工会“国际服务雇员联合会-西部联合医疗工作者工会”牵头，其细节也引发了许多其他工会和民主党团体的反对。这些团体对该提案表示不满，因为公共教育和食品援助等其他进步政策优先事项从新税收中获得的收益远不及医疗保健领域。
Opponents of the ballot measure, including Gov. Gavin Newsom and the Democratic candidate to succeed him this year, Xavier Becerra, have argued the initiative would drive wealthy investors and tech leaders from the state. The details of the proposal, which has been led by Service Employees International Union-United Healthcare Workers West, a large California healthcare workers union, have also sparked opposition from many other unions and Democratic groups. Those groups have taken issue with the fact that other progressive policy priorities, like public education and food assistance, would benefit far less than healthcare from the new revenue.
许多民主党批评人士还与一些共和党人联手，后者长期以来一直认为，财富税可能会导致超级富豪逃离加州，从而破坏该州的收入来源。但最新的民意调查显示，加州选民在很大程度上并不担心富有的加州居民会离开。共有59%的受访者表示对这一潜在结果“不担心”或“不太担心”，而41%的受访者表示对富人因该投票措施而离开加州感到“非常担心”或“有些担心”。
Many Democratic critics have also joined forces with some Republicans, many of whom have long argued that a wealth tax could destabilize California’s revenue streams by causing the ultrarich to flee the state. But the new poll showed California voters were largely not worried about the prospect of wealthy California residents’ leaving. A total of 59% of respondents said they were either “not” or “not too” concerned about that potential outcome, while a total of 41% said they were “very” or “somewhat” concerned about rich people’s leaving the state because of the ballot measure.
在拉美裔选民中，62%的人表示“不担心”或“不太担心”，38%的人表示“非常担心”或“有些担心”。值得注意的是，民调还发现，加州选民对纽森的工作表现评价几乎旗鼓相当，而纽森被广泛视为2028年总统大选的潜在候选人。45%的受访者表示认可他的工作表现，46%的人表示不认可，另有9%的人表示不确定。拉美裔选民对纽森的态度更为积极，54%的人认可他的州长表现，38%的人不认可。但当谈到民主党人如何看待纽森可能参加2028年大选时，他们绝大多数表示会支持他。
Among Hispanic voters, 62% said they were either “not” or “not too” concerned, while 38% said they were “very” or “somewhat” concerned. Notably, the poll also found California voters almost evenly split over whether they approve or disapprove of the job performance of Newsom, widely seen as a 2028 presidential hopeful. Forty-five percent of respondents said they approved of his job performance, while 46% said they disapproved. Another 9% said they weren’t sure. Hispanic voters were more positive about Newsom, with 54% approving and 38% disapproving of his performance as governor. But when it came to how Democrats felt about a possible Newsom 2028 bid, they overwhelmingly said they’d get behind him.
当被问及如果他在2028年竞选民主党总统候选人，他们是否会投票给他时，66%的民主党受访者表示会投票支持他，15%表示反对，19%表示不确定。另一项名为“Proposition 39”的提案如果获得通过，将要求选民在亲自投票时出示政府颁发的身份证件；而通过邮寄方式投票的选民则需要提供他们在注册时使用的身份证件的最后四位数字。
Asked whether they’d be inclined to vote for him if he ran to become the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee in 2028, 66% of Democratic respondents said yes, 15% said no, and 19% said they weren’t sure. Another November ballot measure, Proposition 39, would, if it is passed, require voters to show a government-issued ID when they cast ballots in person, while mail-in voters would have to provide the last four digits of a designated ID used during registration.
在可能的选民中，49%表示支持该提案，42%表示反对，9%表示尚未决定。关于“Proposition 39”，55%的西班牙裔选民表示会投票支持该提案，38%表示反对，7%表示尚未决定。加州选民普遍认为生活成本和经济问题是他们在投票时最关心的问题：其中25%的人认为“生活成本/通货膨胀”是最重要的问题，23%的人认为“经济/就业”是最重要的问题；另有15%的人认为“移民和执法政策”是最重要的问题，11%的人认为“医疗保健”是最重要的问题，10%的人认为“外交政策和伊朗战争”是最重要的问题。
Among likely voters, 49% said they would support the measure, while 42% said they would vote against it, and 9% said they were undecided. Asked about Proposition 39, 55% of Hispanic voters said they would vote “yes” in support of it, while 38% said they would vote “no,” and 7% said they were undecided. California voters strongly said cost of living and the economy were among the most important issues when they were deciding to vote, with 25% saying “cost of living/inflation” was the most important and 23% saying “economy/jobs.”Another 15% said “immigration and enforcement” was the most important, while 11% said healthcare, and 10% said “foreign policy and the Iran War.”
没有其他问题的支持率超过5%。在人们普遍关注经济问题的背景下，42%的受访者表示他们的“个人财务状况”与四年前相比“没有变化”；36%的人表示情况“变得更糟”，22%的人表示情况“有所改善”。同时，在这个民主党占优势的加州，大多数受访者（64%）表示不赞成唐纳德·特朗普总统的工作表现；另有31%的人表示赞成，5%的人表示不确定。
No other issueed at more than 5%. Amid the focus on economic issues, a plurality of respondents — 42% — said their “personal financial situation” was “the same” as four years earlier. Thirty-six percent said it was “worse” compared with four years earlier, while 22% said it was “better.”Meanwhile, most respondents (64%) in reliably blue California overwhelmingly said they disapproved of the job President Donald Trump was doing. Another 31% said they approved, and 5% said they weren’t sure.
当被问及伊朗冲突对美国经济的影响时，超过三分之二（67%）的受访者表示这种冲突对美国经济产生了“重大”影响；16%的受访者表示影响“有一定程度”，7%的受访者表示影响“不大”，8%的受访者表示“没有影响”。
Asked how much impact they felt the conflict with Iran was having on the U.S. economy, more than two-thirds (67%) of respondents said it was having a “great” deal of impact. Another 16% said it was having “some” impact, while 7% said “not much,” and 8% said “none.”