随着汽油价格涨至每加仑6美元以上，以及伊朗境内持续进行的这场不受欢迎战争，特朗普总统在加利福尼亚州共和党人中的支持率持续下滑。这种支持率的下降可能会削弱该党在该州为数不多的竞争性国会选举中的胜算。由加州大学伯克利分校政府研究学院与《洛杉矶时报》联合开展的一项新调查显示，目前该州76%的共和党选民对特朗普的表现表示认可，这一比例较去年的83%有所下降。
With gas prices topping $6 a gallon and an unpopular war continuing in Iran, President Trump’s approval has slipped with California Republicans — a falloff that could diminish the party’s chances in the state's few competitive congressional races. A new poll by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies, co-sponsored by The Times, found that 76% of Republican voters in the state approve of the president’s performance, down from 83% last year.
即使在那些仍支持特朗普的选民中，对他的支持率也有所减弱：只有44%的共和党人表示强烈支持他的表现，而2025年8月这一比例为57%。该调查的负责人马克·迪卡米洛（Mark DiCamillo）指出，这可能导致共和党在该州的选举中的投票率降低。“共和党人在投票积极性方面正在逐渐失去动力，”他说。加州大学伯克利分校政府研究学院的联合主任G·克里斯蒂娜·莫拉（G. Cristina Mora）补充道：“特朗普越是试图将中期选举变成一场关于他个人的政治斗争（比如最近由政府出资制作的亲特朗普广告），民主党人就越有可能积极参与投票；这反而可能激发选民的投票热情。”
The president’s approval has softened even among those who still support his performance. Only 44% of Republicans in California said they strongly support Trump’s performance, down from 57% who said the same in August 2025. That could translate into lower Republican turnout in the state’s few competitive races, said the poll’s director, Mark DiCamillo. “Republicans are losing some of their enthusiasm in terms of being motivated to vote,” he said. In addition, the more Trump tries to make the midterm elections about himself — such as the pro-Trump ads recently sponsored and paid for by the government — the more Democrats might be inclined to show up, said G. Cristina Mora, the UC Berkeley institute's co-director. "That might actually have a galvanizing effect on voters," she said.
特朗普在加利福尼亚州的支持率下降，反映了他在全国范围内的支持率普遍下滑的趋势——即使在共和党人中也是如此。由于选民去年通过了由州长加文·纽森（Gavin Newsom）推动的重新划分选区方案（该方案旨在使选区对民主党更有利），该州的国会选举形势对共和党来说已经非常不利。根据无党派政治分析机构Cook Political Report的统计，在新的选区划分方案下，该州52个选区中仅有4个仍被视为共和党的“安全选区”，另有3个选区的竞争性加剧。
Trump's sinking support in California mirrors a national decline in the president's approval, even among Republicans. The congressional map in the state was already challenging for Republicans after voters last year approved a referendum championed by Gov. Gavin Newsom to redraw districts to be more favorable for Democrats — a response to similar efforts by Republicans in Texas and other states. In the new map, only four of the state’s 52 districts are currently considered safe Republican districts, while three additional districts are seen as competitive, according to the Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan political handicapper.
在加利福尼亚州，民主党在党派注册人数上大约占据20%的优势；因此，其余45个选区都被认为很可能会支持民主党或明确倾向于民主党。库克（Cook）认为，只有一个选区的竞争真正处于胶着状态——那就是位于中央山谷地区的第22选区，现任议员是大卫·瓦拉达奥（David Valadao）。库克的美国众议院事务编辑埃琳·科维（Erin Covey）表示：“目前来看，对民主党来说这是最有利的局面。”
The remaining 45 districts are seen as either likely or solidly Democratic in a state where Democrats hold a roughly 20% advantage in party registration. Only one race is considered by Cook to be a true toss-up — California’s 22nd Congressional District in the Central Valley, which is held by Republican Rep. David Valadao. “We're looking at the best case scenario for Democrats at this point,” said Erin Covey, Cook’s U.S. House editor.
瓦拉达奥是2021年1月6日国会骚乱事件后仅有的10名投票支持弹劾特朗普的共和党议员之一。他的对手是进步派民主党人兰迪·维莱加斯（Randy Villegas），后者是一位政治学教授，并得到了伯尼·桑德斯（Bernie Sanders）的支持。这位来自佛蒙特州的参议员本周末将与维莱加斯一起在贝克斯菲尔德（Bakersfield）参加一场集会。
Valadao, one of only 10 Republicans to vote for Trump’s impeachment in the wake of the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection, faces progressive Democrat Randy Villegas, a political science professor who has the backing of Bernie Sanders. The Vermont senator is joining Villegas this weekend for a rally in Bakersfield.
瓦拉达奥首次当选国会议员是在2012年，但在2018年民主党“蓝色浪潮”选举中落败；那次选举中，民主党在特朗普执政后的首次国会选举中赢得了40个席位。2020年他成功夺回了自己的席位，并一直保持至今。虽然关于这场选举的公开民调很少，但一个支持维莱加斯的政治委员会在6月进行的一项调查显示，民主党人领先瓦拉达奥4个百分点。
Valadao first won a seat in Congress in 2012, but was ousted from office during the Democrats’ “blue wave” election in 2018, in which the party gained 40 seats in the House in the first election after Trump took office in 2016. Valadao was able to win back his seat in 2020 and has held it since. There has been scant public polling in the race, but a poll conducted in June by a political committee backing Villegas showed the Democrat holding a 4-point lead over Valadao.
库克还指出，该州另外两个选区也倾向于民主党：位于河滨县（Riverside County）和圣地亚哥县（San Diego County）的第48选区，现任议员是共和党人达雷尔·伊萨（Darrell Issa），他选择退休而不参加重新划分选区后的选举；以及位于圣华金谷（San Joaquin Valley）的第13选区，现任议员是民主党人亚当·格雷（Adam Gray），他正在努力抵御前斯托克顿市长凯文·林肯（Kevin Lincoln）的挑战。
Two other congressional districts in the state are listed by Cook as leaning Democratic: California's 48th Congressional District in Riverside and San Diego counties, now held by Republican Rep. Darrell Issa, who opted to retire rather than seek reelection in the redrawn district. California's 13th Congressional District in the San Joaquin Valley, where Democratic Rep. Adam Gray is trying to fend off a challenge from Republican Kevin Lincoln, the former mayor of Stockton.
此外，这项民调还显示，特朗普在黑人和拉丁裔选民中的支持率有所下降——这两个群体曾在2024年总统选举中支持特朗普。调查还发现，人们对特朗普政府的两项核心政策普遍持反对态度。
Trump's approval also dipped among Black and Latino voters in the poll. Both groups were part of Trump's winning coalition in the 2024 presidential election. The poll also found broad disapproval of two signature Trump administration policies.
调查显示，70%的加州选民反对特朗普对伊朗发动战争的决定，其中五分之一的共和党人也持相同观点。同时，70%的加州选民认为总统的移民政策正在损害加州的经济和当地企业，同样有五分之一的共和党人也持有这种看法。这项调查于9月15日至9月20日期间通过英语和西班牙语在线进行，共收集了6,989名加州选民的意见。调查的误差范围为正负1.5个百分点。
It found that 70% of California voters disapprove of Trump's decision to go to war in Iran, including 1 in 5 Republicans. Also, 70% of California voters believe that the president's immigration policies are hurting California's economy and local businesses, including 1 in 5 Republicans. The poll was conducted online in English and Spanish between Sept. 15 and Sept. 20 and included the opinions of 6,989ed California voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 1.5 percentage points.