阿比·麦克洛斯基报道：在我们达拉斯家附近的十字路口，有一户人家的前院立着一块巨大的“塔拉里科”（Talarico）标语牌；而街对面的那户人家则挂着一块巨大的“帕克斯顿”（Paxton）标语牌。选举日前的一个月，这里的局势就是这样：两位候选人的支持率几乎持平，选票在各个社区和家庭之间分散着。
By Abby McCloskey At an intersection near our house in Dallas, one home has a large Talarico the front yard. The home directly across the street has a large Paxton sign. That’s what it’s like down here one month before Election Day. The candidates are neck-and-neck.
根据德克萨斯公共舆论研究机构（Texas Public Opinion Research）的最新民意调查，民主党候选人詹姆斯·塔拉里科（James Talarico）以五个百分点的优势领先共和党候选人肯·帕克斯顿（Ken Paxton）。虽然这一优势比夏末时小了些，但仍然属于有效领先范围（即超过了民意调查的误差范围）。
Votes are split across streets and among families. The latest poll by Texas Public Opinion Research has Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton by five points. It’s a smaller lead than in late summer, but it’s a lead — and it’s outside the margin of error.
大量资金涌入竞选活动：塔拉里科早早打破了筹款纪录；共和党方面则专门为帕克斯顿投入了1亿美元用于广告宣传。我们每周都会在邮箱里收到帕克斯顿的传单，上面称他为“‘税收专家’塔拉里科”——可事实上，塔拉里科从未遇到过他觉得合理的税收政策……我的孩子们都对这些打断棒球比赛的广告感到厌烦了。其中有一则特别令人难以理解的广告，声称帕克斯顿曾向一名儿童性侵犯者提供了“优惠的认罪协议”。
Money has poured in; Talarico demolished fundraising records early and Senate Republicans just committed $100 million in ad buys for Paxton. We’re getting weekly Paxton flyers in the mailbox featuring “Tax Man Talarico,” who never met a tax he didn’t like. My kids are getting sick of the commercials interrupting baseball games. One that’s particularly hard to explain is a pro-Talarico ad about Paxton offering a sweetheart plea deal to a child sex predator.
那些希望观看两位候选人辩论的选民恐怕要失望了：帕克斯顿甚至拒绝在福克斯新闻（Fox News）上与塔拉里科进行辩论。也许，当候选人已经处于领先地位、且唯一可能的结果就是落败时，他们就会选择回避辩论吧……其实，这也是那些认为自己的表现会让摇摆不定的选民转向对方阵营的人的常见做法。帕克斯顿本身是一名律师，同时也是该州的司法部长，向来不惧争论。
Voters interested in watching the two men debate are out of luck. Apparently, Paxton won’t even debate Talarico on Fox News. That’s what candidates do when they are already ahead and all they can do is lose, you might say. It’s also what people do if they think their performance will send voters on the fence to the other side’s greener pastures. Paxton is a lawyer and the state’s attorney general; not normally shy about an argument.
在上个月的共和党达拉斯大会上，唐纳德·特朗普总统甚至公开表示自己不喜欢帕克斯顿的穿着、说话方式或外貌……也许帕克斯顿的团队担心选民会认同特朗普的看法。
At the GOP’s Dallas convention last month, President Donald Trump said he didn’t care for how Paxton dressed, talked, or looked. Maybe Paxton’s team worries that voters will agree.
不过，这些因素或许真的无关紧要……以下是一些来自德克萨斯州民众的轶事：有一位中年共和党父亲，他经营着一家房屋建筑公司。他会投票给帕克斯顿，希望让德克萨斯州继续保持共和党的统治地位，并阻止民主党人掌控参议院。他听到的关于帕克斯顿的唯一负面消息，就是有人称帕克斯顿曾背叛了自己的妻子……另一位是一名中年共和党籍的私募股权合伙人。
Not that it may matter. A few anecdotes from people in Texas with their minds made up: One is a middle-aged Republican dad who runs a home building company. He’ll vote for Paxton to keep Texas red and the Democrats out of power in the Senate. The only bad press about Paxton that he’s heard is that the AG allegedly cheated on his wife. Another is a middle-aged Republican private equity partner.
他会在选票其余各项选举中投给共和党，但不会在帕克斯顿与塔拉里科的对决栏中投票。候选人之间必须有一条不能逾越的界线；在他看来，帕克斯顿在被得州众议院共和党人弹劾时越过了这条线。弹劾理由是一长串违法违规行为，包括受贿、虚假陈述、滥用公共信任、错配公共资源等。
He’ll vote Republican down the ballot, but leave the Paxton-Talarico boxes blank. There has to be a line that candidates don’t cross, and in his mind, Paxton crossed it when he was impeached by Texas House Republicans for a laundry list of violations, including bribery, false statements, abuse of public trust, misallocation of public resources and more.
有意思的是，我认识的女性——也就是母亲们——正从支持共和党转而支持民主党，有些人甚至会在选票下方的各项选举中都投民主党的票。从郊区妈妈到富有的祖母，各年龄层的女性都有这种情况。我必须说，想到这一转变，她们似乎兴奋不已。这其中有一种蓄意反抗的感觉。在这场选举中，她们的非共和党选票很长时间以来第一次或许真的能左右得州的选情。
Interestingly, it’s the women I know — the mothers — who are switching from Republican to vote Democratic, some down the ballot. This is everyone from suburban moms to wealthy grandmothers. I must say, they seem positively giddy at the prospect. There’s something about it that feels like an act of defiance. In this race, for the first time in a long time, their non-Republican vote might actually count in Texas.
我接触到的布什时代共和党人认为，帕克斯顿最终仍能险胜。他们中的许多人并不打算投票给他，但依然认为得州依然是共和党的地盘——尽管民调机构将这场比赛列为势均力敌。
The Bush-era Republicans I speak to think that Paxton will eke it out anyway. A lot of them don’t plan to vote for him, but they believe the state is still Republican — despite the pollsters who mark the race as a toss-up.
那些共和党人中仍有很多人怀念即将卸任的参议员约翰·科宁。事实上，初选结束前的民调显示，如果由科宁对阵塔拉里科，他的表现会好于帕克斯顿。卡尔·罗夫 recently 也在2026年《得州论坛报》节上表达了类似看法。
Many of those Republicans still pine for outgoing Senator John Cornyn. And indeed, polling conducted before the primary ended suggested that Cornyn would have performed better against Talarico than Paxton. This sentiment was recently echoed by Karl Rove at the 2026 Texas Tribune Festival.
身为一名保守派，塔拉里科的政策我几乎一项都不喜欢。他的言辞偏中间派，让人耳目一新，但他的政策议程明显偏左，即便他近来有所收敛。在经济政策方面，我赞成他取消特朗普的关税，不过考虑到这些关税并非国会通过法案设立，要取消并不容易。认同的也就只有这一点。
As a conservative, I like very few, if any, of Talarico’s policies. His rhetoric is centrist and refreshing, but his policy agenda is decidedly left, even if he’s moderated somewhat. When it comes to his economic policy, I agree with him on getting rid of the Trump tariffs, although that will be hard considering it wasn’t an act of Congress that instated them. That’s about it.
但我同时也认为，品格至关重要。在我们这个两极分化的时代，人们总倾向于认为“对方阵营总是更糟糕”，这种诱惑会将我们引向黑暗的深渊。我不禁想起特朗普在首次竞选时那句标志性的言论：即便他在第五大道开枪杀人，依然会得到支持。帕克斯顿（Paxton）的竞选活动给人的感觉正是如此。你可以做坏事，却依然能当选更高职位的公职，因为人们担心对方阵营会给你的孩子做变性手术并增加你的税收。
But I also think that character matters. The temptation of our polarized age — that the other side is always worse — will take us to dark places. I can’t help but think of Trump’s iconic statement from his first campaign, that he would still have support if he shot someone on Fifth Avenue. That’s what the Paxton campaign feels like. You can do bad things and get elected to higher and higher office because the other side will transition your children and raise your taxes.
认为那些道德有瑕疵的候选人只是个例，且在此之后政党会回归正途，这种想法未免过于天真。事实恰恰相反，可能性更大的是：当我们的政治越不看重品格，就越会吸引那些有缺陷的公共领导人。
It’s Pollyannaish to think that compromised candidates are one-offs — and that afterwards, the party will go back to upstanding behavior. The opposite is more likely. The less character matters in our politics, the more our politics will attract flawed public leaders.
阻止这种恶性循环的唯一途径，是其中一个政党主动叫停。但如今政党内部已没有了把关人，所以一切只能取决于选民。
The only way the spiral to the bottom stops is if one of the political parties stops it. But there aren’t party gatekeepers anymore — so it’s up to the voters.
而在得克萨斯州，距离中期选举还有一个多月，我们对此仍存在严重分歧。
And in Texas, one month out from midterms, we’re deeply split about it. To contact the author of this story: at amccloskey7@bloomberg.net