关于本雅明·内塔尼亚胡被指在哈马斯主导的2023年10月7日袭击发生前收到预警的争议，持续困扰着这位以色列总理，而此时距离定于10月27日举行的关键选举已迫在眉睫。
The controversy over warnings Benjamin Netanyahu is alleged to have received in advance of the Hamas-led October 7, 2023 attacks continues to dog the Israeli prime minister ahead of knife-edge elections slated for October 27.
内塔尼亚胡周日遭受了最新打击，此前《华尔街日报》的一篇报道称，埃及情报局长阿巴斯·卡迈勒曾就袭击向他发出过警告。据报道，卡迈勒在袭击发生前几天曾致电内塔尼亚胡，强调了2023年9月的先前警告——当时据称他曾飞往以色列，当面警告安全官员哈马斯正在策划袭击。
The latest blow to Netanyahu came on Sunday, after a Wall Street Journal report suggested that he had been warned of the attack by Egypt’s intelligence chief, Abbas Kamel, who reportedly phoned the prime minister just days before the attack, underscoring previous warnings in September 2023, when he is said to have flown to Israel to warn security officials in person that Hamas was planning an attack.
在卡迈勒发出警告的消息传出之前，以色列和美国媒体本月早些时候曾报道称，阿拉伯联合酋长国总统谢赫穆罕默德·本·扎耶德·阿勒纳哈扬（MBZ）曾在袭击发生前一周警告内塔尼亚胡，称哈马斯时任加沙领导人叶海亚·辛瓦尔正在策划此次袭击。
News of Kamel’s warnings follows reports in Israeli and US media earlier this month suggesting that Netanyahu had been warned by United Arab Emirates President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (MBZ) in the week before the attack that Hamas’s then-leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, was planning the assault.
内塔尼亚胡在美国纽约联合国总部举行的第81届联合国大会上发表讲话 [资料来源：Timothy A Clary/法新社]。内塔尼亚胡坚决否认收到过任何袭击预警，并已就这些指控提起诉讼。
Netanyahu speaks during the 81st UNGA at the UN headquarters in New York, US [File: Timothy A Clary/AFP] Netanyahu has been emphatic in his denials of having received any warning of an attack, and has sued over the claims.
卡迈勒和埃及政府均未对这些报道发表评论。阿联酋外交部表示，不对有关政府领导人之间谈话的媒体报道或猜测发表评论。
Neither Kamel nor the Egyptian government has commented on the reports. The UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs has said it does not comment on media reports or speculation concerning conversations between government leaders.
内塔尼亚胡试图将未能预警袭击的责任推给以色列国家安全总局（辛贝特）前局长罗南·巴尔。周一，巴尔宣布将因诽谤起诉这位长期以来的政治宿敌。
Netanyahu has attempted to shift the blame for not being alerted to the attack onto the former head of Israel’s internal security service, Ronen Bar, who announced on Monday that he would sue the prime minister, a longtime political nemesis for defamation as a result.
民调显示，10月7日袭击事件（该事件导致以色列1,139人死亡）以及由此引发的安全责任问题，仍然是选民在即将举行的议会选举前的重要议题。持续的媒体报道也使这场袭击带来的创伤始终处于公众讨论的中心——尽管以色列对加沙发动了种族灭绝战争，至今已过去三年多，这场战争导致超过74,000名巴勒斯坦人死亡。
Polling suggests that events surrounding the October 7 attacks, which killed 1,139 people in Israel, and questions over responsibility for security failures that preceded them remain important issues for voters ahead of the upcoming parliamentary elections. Continued media coverage has also kept the trauma of the attack at the centre of public debate, more than three years after Israel launched its genocidal war on Gaza, killing more than 74,000 Palestinians.
以色列在2023年10月7日的袭击中，以加沙地带为袭击源头，杀害了超过74,000名巴勒斯坦人。[Abdelhakim Abu Riash/Al Jazeera]“我们知道，埃及的情报主管于9月26日飞往以色列，并警告以色列可能会发生哈马斯发动的袭击，”以色列安全分析师、伦敦国王学院高级研究员阿隆·布雷格曼（Ahron Bregman）说，“我们也知道摩洛哥王室（MBZ）也发出了类似的警告。”
Israel has killed more than 74,000 people in Gaza in response to the October 7, 2023 attacks that were launched from the Palestinian enclave [Abdelhakim Abu Riash/Al Jazeera]“We know that Egypt’s Chief of Intelligence flew to Israel on September 26 and warned Israel of a … Hamas attack,” Ahron Bregman, an Israeli security analyst and senior teaching fellow at King’s College London, said. “We also know that similar messages came from MBZ.”
“为什么这些警告被忽视了呢？这就是我们所说的‘认知偏差’（‘conception’）的魔力所在，”他解释道，这里的“认知偏差”指的是以色列安全决策所基于的那些潜在假设。“以色列政府（尤其是内塔尼亚胡政府）坚信：哈马斯已经被威慑住了，其唯一目的只是想迫使以色列稍微放松对加沙的封锁和压力。”
“Why they were ignored? That’s the magic of what we call ‘conception’,” he said, referring to ha-conceptzia, the Hebrew term for the underlying assumptions on which Israeli security decisions are often based. “And Israel, not only Netanyahu, believed in the conception that Hamas was deterred and all it wanted was to [push] Israel a little bit to ease the pressure and blockade on Gaza.”Entrenched politics Netanyahu’s two main rivals in the race for prime minister have both seized on the alleged warnings.
内塔尼亚胡在总理竞选中的两大主要竞争对手都利用了这些所谓的警告来攻击对方。
Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, leader of the Beyachad (Together) alliance, said if the allegations were proven true, Netanyahu “cannot continue to serve in his position for another minute”. Former military chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot, whose Yashar party leads Netanyahu’s Likud in the polls by the slenderest of margins, said, “Netanyahu received dozens of warnings for October 7 and ignored them all. He is unfit.”UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan reportedly warned Netanyahu ahead of the October 2023 attacks [File: Evgenia Novozhenina/Pool via Reuters] The reports do not appear to have had a significant effect on the election polls, but, all the same, the latest revelations in The Wall Street Journal were likely to concern those within Netanyahu’s campaign who had already invested significant time and effort in rebutting the initial round of stories claiming he had been warned by the UAE leader, London-based Israeli academic and media analyst Ayala Panievsky told Al Jazeera.
前总理纳夫塔利·本尼特（Beyachad联盟的领导人）表示，如果这些指控被证实属实，内塔尼亚胡“根本不可能再继续担任总理职务一分钟”。前以色列国防军参谋长加迪·艾森科特（Gadi Eisenkot）的政党在民意调查中以微弱优势领先内塔尼亚胡领导的利库德党；艾森科特称：“内塔尼亚胡在2023年10月7日事件发生前收到了数十次警告，但他全都置之不理——他显然不适合继续执政。”
“However, the opinion polls have been quite stable for years now. I wouldn’t expect a significant portion of Netanyahu voters to break with him over this,” she said. “It could hurt him with voter turnout and excitement among his base, however, which could be significant as the polls seem relatively close.”
据报道，阿联酋总统谢赫·穆罕默德·本·扎耶德·阿勒纳哈扬在事件发生前曾警告过内塔尼亚胡。这些报道似乎并未对选举民意调查产生显著影响，但《华尔街日报》的最新披露仍可能让内塔尼亚胡的竞选团队感到担忧——毕竟他们已经投入了大量时间和精力来反驳那些最初声称内塔尼亚胡曾收到阿联酋领导人警告的报道。
Analysts suggested that part of the explanation lay in the Likud party’s and Netanyahu’s longstanding portrayal of themselves as political outsiders under attack from what they were encouraged to see as a hostile political establishment. That narrative may make supporters more inclined to accept the prime minister’s denials and his criticism of the security services and other institutions.
总部位于伦敦的以色列学者兼媒体分析师阿亚拉·帕尼耶夫斯基（Ayala Panievsky）告诉半岛电视台：“不过，近年来民意调查的结果一直相当稳定。我认为内塔尼亚胡的支持者中不会有很多人因此改变自己的投票立场。不过，这些报道可能会影响选民的投票积极性，尤其是他的核心支持者；鉴于目前民意调查的结果非常接近，这可能会产生重要影响。”
分析人士指出，利库德党和内塔尼亚胡长期以来一直将自己描绘成受到敌对政治势力攻击的‘局外人’；这种叙事可能使他们的支持者更倾向于相信内塔尼亚胡的否认，并接受他对安全机构等部门的批评。
“I think everyone expected [the reports on Netanyahu being given warnings] to be a landmark story, one serious enough to really damage Netanyahu,” Israeli political analyst Nimrod Flaschenberg said.
“我认为大家都认为这些关于内塔尼亚胡收到警告的报道具有里程碑式的意义，其严重性足以对内塔尼亚胡的执政地位造成实质性打击，”以色列政治分析师尼姆罗德·弗拉斯亨伯格（Nimrod Flaschenberg）说道。
“However, Netanyahu’s rebuttals and threats to sue have given his supporters something to hold on to,” Flaschenberg said. “They’re now free to dismiss the stories as fake, just as the opposition is pushing them. The politics of this really have become that entrenched.”Years of persecution However, analysts cautioned that it remains unclear whether acting on any warnings would ultimately have prevented an attack on the scale of October 7. They also pointed to the wider context in Gaza, where years of Israeli restrictions and military actions, widely condemned by rights groups, the United Nations, and a number of states, had contributed to deep grievances and a heightened risk of violence.
“然而，内塔尼亚胡的反驳和起诉威胁给了他的支持者们某种坚持的理由，”弗拉申伯格说。“他们现在可以随意将这些报道斥为虚假新闻，正如反对派正在推动的那样。这种政治博弈确实已经变得根深蒂固。”多年的迫害然而，分析人士提醒说，目前尚不清楚采取行动是否最终能阻止像10月7日那样规模的袭击。他们还指出了加沙更广泛的背景：多年来以色列的限制和军事行动——这些行为受到了人权组织、联合国和多个国家的广泛谴责——导致了深重的怨恨，并加剧了暴力的风险。“战略突袭是无法预防的，”布雷格曼继续说道。
“Strategic surprises cannot be prevented,” Bregman continued.
“一个意志坚定的对手最终会让你遭遇一次‘10月7日’。你可以推迟它，暂时阻止它，但你无法彻底终结它，”他说，“以色列的下一个‘10月7日’将来自西岸。不是现在，而是在未来。也许是五年、十年或三十年后，但这不可避免。”
“A determined opponent will eventually inflict on you an October 7. You can delay it. Prevent it temporarily, but you can’t stop it,” he said, “Israel’s next October 7 will come from the West Bank. Not now, but in the future. Maybe in five, 10, 30 years, but it’s inevitable.”