伦敦，9月30日：面对全球借贷成本飙升、各国政府频繁进行货币干预、油价重新突破100美元/桶的大关，以及人工智能可能毁灭人类的种种警告，股市投资者本应纷纷逃离市场。
LONDON, Sept 30 : Stock market investors might have been expected to run for the hills in the face of an extraordinary surge in global borrowing costs, currency interventions, wars, oil back above $100 a barrel and warnings that AI might wipe out humanity.
然而，目前被广泛追踪的世界主要股指仅比历史最高点下跌了2%，全年涨幅已超过12%；尤其是在经历了动荡的第三季度后，这些股指再度上涨了3万亿美元。
Yet the most widely tracked world equity indexes are just 2 per cent off their all-time highs and up more than 12 per cent for the year after another $3 trillion tick higher during a tumultuous third quarter.
令人担忧的是，那些本应成为全球投资组合中“稳定器”的G10国家政府债券，反而成了引发市场恐慌的根源——尤其是本月。
Instead it has been G10 government bonds, ultra-safe assets supposed to provide the ballast in global investment portfolios, which have been causing all the worries, especially this month.
在美国规模达29万亿美元的国债市场中（该市场几乎决定了所有金融产品的价格），10年期国债的收益率已飙升至5%以上，达到2007年金融危机前的最高水平。日本的国债收益率也升至数十年来的新高；德国、法国和英国的国债收益率也均达到了17%至19%的峰值。由于债券价格与收益率呈反比关系，这无疑对投资者的回报造成了多年来最严重的冲击。
In the $29-trillion US Treasury market, which anchors pricing for virtually all financial assets, the key 10-year yield has soared past 5 per cent to its highest level since just before the 2007 financial crash. Yields in Japan have climbed to multi-decade highs too, while those in Germany, France and Britain have all hit 17 to 19 year peaks. As bond prices move inversely to yield it has meant the biggest hit to investors returns in years.
AXA首席经济学家吉勒斯·莫埃克（Gilles Moec）指出：“与上世纪90年代或金融危机前国债收益率飙升的情况不同，这次收益率的上升属于一个明显的上升趋势。”他补充说：“从根本上讲，我们现在正处于一个完全不同的结构性趋势中，这让人感到非常焦虑。”
AXA's chief economist Gilles Moec said that unlike when Treasury yields spiked above 5 per cent in the 1990s and before the financial crisis, this rise was part of a new clearly upward trend. "What people are worried about is that we are in a completely different structural trend now, that is the long and the short of it," said Moec.
对于股市多头来说，情况确实不容乐观：韩国的KOPSI指数（其芯片制造商曾是推动人工智能市场繁荣的主要力量）已经下跌了近20%，创下自新冠疫情以来的最差表现；尽管该指数目前的市值仍是去年同期的两倍。
"It is making people very, very nervous," he added. FINGERS CROSSED There have been some snags for stock market bulls. South Korea's KOPSI index, whose chipmakers have been a big driver of AI euphoria, has pulled back almost 20 per cent.
Pictet资产管理公司的阿伦·赛（Arun Sai）表示，全球股市正受益于“前所未有的”企业盈利增长——例如，标准普尔500指数的企业盈利预计今年至少将增长30%。
It makes it its worst quarter since the COVID-19 pandemic, although it is still twice a valuable as it was this time last year. Pictet Asset Management's Arun Sai said world stocks were riding a "truly unprecedented" earnings rise.
“这让大宗商品超级周期、互联网泡沫等一切都相形见绌，”赛（Sai）补充道：“除了经济衰退后的复苏期，我们从未见过这样的景象。”
S&P 500 earnings for example are expected to jump at least 30 per cent this year. "It dwarfs the commodity super cycle, it dwarfs the dotcom boom, everything," said Sai, adding: "We have never seen anything like this outside of a recession recovery".
与此同时，本季度货币市场的关键时刻是7月下旬日本和美国罕见地采取联合干预行动，以防止日元跌至近40年来的低点，从而避免金融市场动荡。
The moment of the quarter for currency markets, meanwhile, was late July's rare coordinated intervention by Japan and the US to prevent the yen's slide to near 40-year lows from destabilising financial markets.
尽管本季度美元兑日元汇率下跌了3%，但近期美国国债收益率的飙升推动美元兑其他主要货币（尤其是瑞士法郎、欧元和墨西哥比索）回升。
While the dollar has fallen 3 per cent versus the Japanese currency this quarter, the recent surge in Treasury yields has driven it back up against other top currencies, particularly the Swiss franc, euro and the Mexican peso.
比特币也大幅飙升，而石油本季度40%的涨幅使其全年涨幅达到70%。这也是布伦特原油自2020年第二季度因新冠疫情导致全球经济首次停摆而暴跌以来，单季度涨幅第二大的一次。
Bitcoin has soared too, while oil's 40 per cent quarterly rise leaves it up 70 per cent for the year. It is also Brent's second-biggest quarterly jump since Q2 2020 after the tumble it took when COVID-19 first shuttered the global economy.
尽管土耳其市场本月因一位高层官员所称的“庞氏骗局”式基金而受到冲击，但大型发展中经济体似乎和科技股一样，在很大程度上经受住了债券市场的抛售。
Although Turkish markets were rattled this month by what one top official described as a Ponzi-like funds scheme, large, developing economies, like tech stocks, seem to be largely surviving the bond market selloff.
“我们还没有经历大家所担心的那种大规模避险，”安本（Aberdeen）新兴市场投资组合经理维克多·萨博（Viktor Szabo）表示，“所以我们仍然在祈祷，但看看美元接下来会发生什么将非常有趣。”最后冲刺：今年余下时间还有很多看点，中东和乌克兰的冲突仍在持续。
"We haven't had the big risk off that we are all afraid of," said Viktor Szabo, an EM portfolio manager at Aberdeen. "So we are still sitting here fingers crossed, but it will be interesting to see what happens with the dollar from here." FINAL LAP There is plenty in store for the rest of the year, with the conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine both grinding on.
预计利率将继续上升，本周末还将迎来南美最大经济体巴西的总统选举第一轮投票。
Interest rates are expected to keep rising and the first weekend throws up the first round of the presidential election in Brazil, South America's biggest economy.
11月初的美国中期选举规模将更大，民调显示美国总统唐纳德·特朗普所在的共和党可能会失去众议院，甚至可能失去参议院。
US midterm elections in early November will be even bigger, with polls showing US President Donald Trump's Republican party could lose the House of Representatives and maybe even the Senate.
这可能会让2026年的收官阶段变得非常有趣，尽管投资者最想知道的是债券收益率会升至多高，以及由人工智能驱动的股市反弹是否会破裂。
That could make for a very interesting end to 2026, although what investors want to know most is how high bond yields might go and whether the AI-driven equity rally cracks.
“这是否会扰乱市场？”Gramercy主权研究与策略联席主管凯瑟琳·埃克苏姆在谈及借贷成本水平时表示。
"Whether or not this breaks markets?" Kathryn Exum Co-Head of Sovereign Research & Strategy at Gramercy said, referring to level of borrowing costs.
“我认为，你必须看到这些（10年期美国国债）收益率水平持续高于我们目前所处的位置。”
"I think you'd have to see these (10-year Treasury) yield levels sustained at a little bit higher rate than where we're at currently."