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埃塞俄比亚计划从索马里撤军以回国打击叛军Ethiopia Plans Somalia Troop Pullout to Fight Rebels Back Home

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西蒙·马克斯(Simon Marks)和穆罕默德·奥马尔·艾哈迈德(Mohammed Omar Ahmed)报道:埃塞俄比亚计划从邻国索马里撤出数千名士兵,因为国内不断升级的战斗迫使阿比·艾哈迈德总理的政府将军事资源转向与反叛组织日益扩大的冲突。

By Simon Marks and Mohammed Omar Ahmed Ethiopia is planning to withdraw thousands of troops from neighboring Somalia as escalating fighting at home forces Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government to redirect military resources toward a widening conflict with rebel groups.

据知情人士透露,预计在未来几天或几周内,将有超过3000名埃塞俄比亚士兵开始撤离。由于未获授权向媒体发言,这些人士要求匿名。

More than 3,000 Ethiopian troops are expected to begin pulling out in the coming days or weeks, according to people familiar with the matter who asked not to be identified as they’re not authorized to speak to the media. Any pullback would leave a significant security gap on Ethiopia’s border with Somalia, which continues to battle an al-Qaeda-linked al-Shabaab insurgency.

任何撤军行动都将在埃塞俄比亚与索马里的边境留下巨大的安全缺口,而索马里目前仍在与基地组织有关联的青年党叛乱分子作战。2020年提格雷冲突期间,埃塞俄比亚曾采取过类似举措,当时数千名士兵从索马里撤出以协助政府的攻势。埃塞俄比亚政府发言人未回应有关战斗和潜在撤军的问题。

Ethiopia took a similar step during the Tigray conflict in 2020, when thousands off troops were withdrawn from Somalia to help with the government offensive. A spokesperson for Ethiopia’s government didn’t respond to questions about the fighting and the potential troop withdrawal. The fighting in the Horn of Africa nation adds to growing instability around the Red Sea, a vital shipping route.

这个非洲之角国家的战斗加剧了红海周边地区日益增长的不稳定性,而红海是一条至关重要的航运路线。在海峡对岸的也门,沙特阿拉伯与伊朗支持的胡塞武装之间重新爆发的冲突打破了2022年的一项停火协议,威胁到战略要地曼德海峡周边的局势动荡。

Across the water in Yemen, renewed conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran-backed Houthi rebels has shattered a separate 2022 truce, threatening turmoil around the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The military surge in northern Ethiopia has led to hundreds of deaths and injuries, according to health workers, as renewed clashes and drone strikes intensify a conflict that’s shattered a fragile 2022 peace agreement.

据医务工作者称,埃塞俄比亚北部的军事升级已导致数百人伤亡,随着冲突和无人机袭击的加剧,2022年达成的脆弱和平协议已被打破。

More than 700 wounded people sought treatment at hospitals supported by Médecins Sans Frontières in the region, the medical charity said in a statement.

无国界医生组织在一份声明中表示,该地区有超过700名伤者在他们支持的医院寻求治疗。

“The current situation in northern Ethiopia is very worrying,” MSF said, noting a growing toll of patients in the towns of Korem, Alamata and Shire.

无国界医生组织指出,科雷姆、阿拉马塔和希雷等城镇的患者人数不断增加,并表示:“埃塞俄比亚北部目前的局势非常令人担忧。”

The renewed clashes come four years after Ethiopia’s government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front signed a peace deal ending a two-year civil war that killed more than half a million people.

此次冲突重燃发生在该国政府与提格雷人民解放阵线签署和平协议四年后,该协议曾结束了一场导致超过50万人死亡的两年内战。

The latest conflict has seen seven rebel groups — including Fano militia fighters in Ethiopia’s Amhara region and the Oromo Liberation Army in Oromia — form an alliance with a goal of overthrowing Ahmed.

最新冲突中,包括埃塞俄比亚阿姆哈拉地区的法诺民兵组织以及奥罗米亚地区的奥罗莫解放军在内的七个反政府武装组织结成了联盟,其共同目标是推翻埃塞俄比亚总统艾哈迈德。

On Monday, Ethiopian federal government forces and allied fighters captured the strategic northern town of Alamata and were moving closer to the Tigrayan capital of Mekelle, according to two regional diplomats and videos the pro-government Tigray Peace Force posted on its Facebook page.

据两名地区外交官以及亲政府的“提格雷和平力量”组织在其Facebook页面上发布的视频显示,周一,埃塞俄比亚联邦政府军及其盟友已占领了北部战略要地阿拉马塔,并正在向提格雷地区的首府梅克勒推进。

The International Committee of the Red Cross said it evacuated 161 people including federal police, Ethiopian Airlines staff and African Union monitors from Mekelle on Monday.

国际红十字会表示,周一他们从梅克勒撤离了161名人员,其中包括联邦警察、埃塞俄比亚航空公司的工作人员以及非洲联盟的观察员。

The conflict also threatens to draw in regional powers, after Ethiopia’s army chief, Birhanu Jula, accused Egypt, Sudan and Eritrea over the weekend of backing the rebel alliance.

这场冲突还可能引发地区大国的介入:埃塞俄比亚军队司令比拉努·朱拉上周末指责埃及、苏丹和厄立特里亚支持这些反政府武装组织;这三个国家均否认了这一指控。

All three countries have denied the allegations.

埃及外交部发言人纳德尔·扎基在一份声明中表示:“埃及的外交政策基于坚定的原则,其中最重要的是尊重各国的主权、领土完整以及不干涉他国内部事务。”厄立特里亚国务部长萨利赫·穆罕默德则在联合国大会上警告称:“必须立即停止这场战争及其相关的破坏行为。”

“Egyptian foreign policy is based on firm principles, foremost among which is respect for the sovereignty of states and the unity and territorial integrity thereof, and non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries,” Nader Zaki, a spokesperson for Egypt’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said in a statement on Eritrean Minister of State Saleh Mohammed warned the United Nations General Assembly on Monday of “the urgency of reversing the war and related acts of subversion.”Sudan’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement on Tuesday that “its territory has never been and will never serve as a launchpad for any activities targeting the security and stability of neighboring countries.”

苏丹外交部周二在声明中表示:“苏丹的领土从未、也永远不会成为任何针对邻国安全和稳定的活动的基地。”分析人士指出,如果反对派武装控制了连接埃塞俄比亚与吉布提的公路(该公路承担了埃塞俄比亚90%的对外贸易),阿法尔地区的冲突可能会对埃塞俄比亚首都亚的斯亚贝巴构成严重威胁。

Analysts warn the expanding conflict in the Afar region, which borders Eritrea and Djibouti, may pose a serious threat to Addis Ababa if opposition forces sever the highway linking the land-locked country to Djibouti, which handles about 90% of Ethiopia’s external trade. Still, Awol Allo, a senior lecturer at the University of Sheffield, said there was limited support for the rebel coalition inside Ethiopia, despite the Fano fighters in the Amhara region having evolved into a “formidable insurgency.”

不过,谢菲尔德大学的高级讲师阿沃尔·阿洛(Awol Allo)表示,尽管阿姆哈拉地区的法诺(Fano)武装已经发展成一支“强大的叛乱力量”,但在埃塞俄比亚国内,对这一反政府联盟的支持仍然非常有限。

“It is very difficult to find any mutual vision for the future or any collective aim between groups like the Fano and TPLF,” he said.

他说:“法诺武装与提格雷人民解放阵线(TPLF)之类的组织之间,很难找到共同的未来愿景或共同的目标。他们是否具备推翻政府的制度和组织能力,实在令人怀疑。”

“It is very doubtful they have the institutional and organizational structure behind them to overthrow the government.”