詹姆斯·塔拉里科（James Talarico）能否赢得德克萨斯州的参议院选举尚不可知。但我们现在可以肯定的是：考虑到塔拉里科在这样一个共和党占优势的州，在开展了如此公开支持移民的竞选活动后，依然能取得如此接近的选票差距——而塔拉里科从一开始就断断续续地坚持这一立场——这应该会极大地影响民主党未来处理移民问题的方式。
James Talarico may or may not win the Senate race in Texas. But here’s something we can say right now: Given how close Talarico is coming in this red state after running such an overtly pro-immigrant campaign—which Talarico has done on and off from the outset—it should shape how Democrats handle the immigration issue going forward pretty dramatically.
塔拉里科充满活力的竞选活动核心存在一个悖论。他所在的州在2024年大选中以14个百分点的优势支持了唐纳德·特朗普。然而，尽管移民问题被广泛吹捧为特朗普的“强项”，塔拉里科在这一竞选周期中，比大多数在艰难选区竞选的其他民主党人更积极地倾向于移民问题背后的道德议题。民主党人可以从中汲取经验——但方式可能与他们想象的不同。
There’s a paradox at the center of Talarico’s spirited bid. He’s running in a state that Donald Trump carried by 14 points in 2024. Yet he’s actually leaned into the moral issues around immigration more aggressively than most other Democrats running in tough areas have this cycle, despite it being widely touted as Trump’s “strength.”Democrats can learn from this—and not in the ways they might think.
上周，在奥斯汀发表长篇讲话时，塔拉里科抓住了一则新闻：美国移民和海关执法局（ICE）向一名当地委内瑞拉移民的背部开枪——该移民目前已被拘留。塔拉里科以此为契机，从道德层面广泛论证了移民对我们国家是有益的。他呼吁为移民提供“更多合法途径”来到这里并“实现美国梦”，他表示这将使我们的国家“更富裕、更强大”。
Last week, during extended remarks in Austin, Talarico seized on the news that ICE shot a local Venezuelan immigrant in the back—he’s now in detention—to make an expansive moral case that immigration is good for our country. He called for “more legal pathways” for immigrants to come here and “live the American dream,” which he said would make our country “richer and stronger.”
在这些言论中，塔拉里科不仅呼吁扩大合法移民途径，还主张为长期无证居民提供入籍途径，并加强边境安全。简而言之，塔拉里科呼吁增加合法移民，称这将造福我们的国家，甚至宣称：“我认为大多数德克萨斯人都支持所有这些目标。”在这一声明——即大多数德克萨斯人支持所有这些主张——的背后，隐藏着一套真正的竞选理论。
In those remarks, Talarico called for those broadened legal pathways on top of a path to citizenship for longtime undocumented residents and increased border security. In short, Talarico called for more legal immigration, said this would benefit our country, and even declared: “I think most Texans support all of those goals.”Lurking behind this declaration—that a majority of Texans support all those things—is a genuine theory of the case.
那就是特朗普的议程——蒙面的ICE暴徒抓捕祖母和儿童、杀害美国公民、官方政府通讯中公然的白人民族主义——已经为建立一种新的支持移民的共识打开了大门，即使是在特朗普以压倒性优势获胜的地方也是如此。通过在德克萨斯州如此正面地传达这一信息，塔拉里科已经在实现某种潜在的、具有震荡性影响的成就之路上迈进了。
It’s that Trump’s agenda—the masked ICE thugs snatching grandmas and children, the killings of U.S. citizens, the overt white nationalism in official government communications—has opened the door to creating a new pro-immigrant consensus, even in a place Trump won overwhelmingly. By delivering such a message in Texas so frontally, Talarico is already on the road to accomplishing something potentially seismic.
原因如下。特朗普在2024年胜选后，一些观察人士认为，他在墨西哥边境、拉丁裔人口占比较高的格兰德河谷对西班牙裔选民中的得票增长，说明他缔造了一个新的、涵盖多个族裔的工人阶级联盟。按照这种说法，就连拉丁裔美国公民也开始倒向特朗普反移民、限制移民的主张，预示着一场将改变美国政治格局的长期政治重组。
Here’s why. After Trump’s 2024 victory, some observers suggested his gains among Hispanics in the Latino-heavy Rio Grande Valley, along the Mexican border, suggested he’d forged a new, multi-racial working-class coalition. In that narrative, even Latino U.S. citizens were gravitating toward Trump’s anti-immigrant restrictionism in a durable realignment that would change U.S. politics.
但如今，这一梦想似乎正在破灭。在得克萨斯州参议员选举中，这一点尤为明显：特朗普正严重疏远拉丁裔选民——主要是因为经济问题，但也与移民政策有关——并促使他们转而支持塔拉里科。
But now that dream seems to be coming apart. This is very visible in the Texas Senate race, where Trump is badly alienating Latinos—mostly because of the economy, but also due to immigration—and leading them to support Talarico.
我获得了最新数据，足以有力地说明这一点。今年8月，得克萨斯南方大学对得州三个竞争激烈的众议院选区——第15、第28和第34选区——进行了民调调查。这些拉丁裔人口占比较高的选区均与美墨边境最南段接壤，此前都大幅倒向特朗普，有力推动了所谓“政治重组”的叙事。然而，调查发现，在第15选区，民主党挑战者领先共和党现任议员5个百分点；在第28和第34选区，民主党现任议员分别领先共和党挑战者11个和3个百分点。
I’ve obtained new data that drives the point home. In August, Texas Southern University polled three competitive House districts in Texas—the 15th, 28th, and 34th. These Latino-heavy districts, which abut the border’s southernmost portions, all swung hard toward Trump, heavily driving the “realignment” narrative. Yet the poll found the Democratic challenger leading the GOP incumbent in the 15th by five points, and the Democratic incumbents leading their GOP challengers in the 28th and 34th by 11 and three points respectively.
有意思的地方就在这里。我要求调查方提供这些选区拉丁裔选民对特朗普在相关议题上看法的细分数据。结果是：在得州第15选区，只有36%的拉丁裔选民认可特朗普在移民和边境安全方面的表现，61%表示不认可，净支持率为负25个百分点。在第28选区，这一数字是36%对60%，净支持率为负24个百分点。在第34选区，则是36%对62%，净支持率为负26个百分点。
Here’s where it gets interesting. I asked for the survey’s breakdown of how Latinos in the districts view Trump on these issues. The answer: In Texas’s 15th, only 36 percent of Latinos approve of Trump on immigration and border security, while 61 percent disapprove—25 points underwater. In the 28th, that’s 36-60, or 24 points underwater. And in the 34th, that’s 36-62—26 points underwater.
“得克萨斯南方大学民调的联合主持人马克·琼斯对我说，谈到得州拉丁裔选民时，他表示：‘他们原本以为得到的是边境安全和公共安全，而不是朋友、同事、教区教友和亲属被驱逐出境。’”塔拉里科的竞选活动将里奥格兰德河谷视为关键地区。他在此地推出了自己的移民政策，并在该地区举办了大约十几场宣传活动。该地区民众对特朗普的强烈反对，解释了为何塔拉里科能够获得全州约60%的拉丁裔选民支持——这与2024年时特朗普仅获得55%拉丁裔选民支持的情况形成了巨大反差。
“They thought they were getting a secure border and public safety, not the deportation of friends, co-workers, fellow parishioners, and relatives,” Mark Jones, who co-directs the Texas Southern University poll, told me, speaking about Texas Latinos. Talarico’s campaign sees the Rio Grande Valley as critical. He rolled out his immigration plan there, and he’s done around a dozen events in the region. The region’s turn against Trump helps explain why Talarico’s getting around 60 percent support from Latinos statewide—a huge turnaround from 2024, when Trump 55 percent of them.
从某种角度来看，这些数据还不够理想。政治顾问迈克·马德里（Mike Madrid）是研究拉丁裔选民投票行为的专家，他认为如果没有经济衰退的影响，这种情况可能不会发生。他指出，尽管特朗普采取了诸多措施，但他在拉丁裔选民中的支持率仍维持在30%左右；这表明民主党必须采取更多措施，将拉丁裔选民转化为支持民主党的选民群体。
In one sense, these numbers are not good enough. Political consultant Mike Madrid, an expert on the Latino vote, argues that this might not be happening without the bad economy. He notes that Trump’s ability to still reach the mid-30s with Latinos on immigration—despite all he’s done—suggests Democrats must do more to turn them into a pro-Dem voting bloc, rather than a swing constituency.
不过，这也意味着一个重要的机会：特朗普已经失去了在2024年选举中赢得这些选民的支持，因此民主党有机会长期巩固这一优势。在那些倾向共和党的地区，民主党可以通过经济政策和边境安全问题来吸引选民，并同时传递出对移民的友好态度——由于特朗普的恶劣行径，这种态度在这些地区也变得具有说服力。马德里表示：“民主党获得了绝佳的机会，第二次机会来重建一个支持工薪阶层的选民联盟。”
But this also suggests a big opening.
此外，还需要承认：塔拉里科获得支持的一个原因可能是他刻意与乔·拜登的移民政策划清了界限，多次批评拜登在边境问题上的失职。塔拉里科的移民政策也着重强调加强边境安全措施；马德里指出：“这才是我们应该讨论的重点。”
Trump has thrown away his 2024 gains with these voters, meaning Democrats can try to seal the deal long-term. In redder areas, they can lead with the economy and border security, and pair that with a welcoming message for immigrants, which is now sellable even in red areas due to Trump’s savage inhumanity.
塔拉里科自己也用他的常用语表达了这一观点：“我们的边境应该像前廊一样——门前应该铺上欢迎垫，门上应该装有锁。”这里的“锁”固然重要，但“欢迎垫”同样不可忽视。
“Democrats have been given a golden opportunity, a second chance to reconstitute a working- class coalition,” Madrid says.
归根结底，塔拉里科的方案要求美国移民与海关执法局降低长期无证居民被遣返的优先级，将重点放在危险罪犯身上。方案还要求为许多无证移民群体提供入籍途径，尽管这并非参议院民主党人在2013年通过的大规模特赦（该法案被众议院共和党人否决）。方案将为移民赴美工作开辟新的合法渠道，并在呼吁增加法官以更快审理相关申请的同时，维持庇护申请者和难民的受理渠道。
It should also be acknowledged that one reason for Talarico’s gains is likely that Talarico has distanced himself from Joe Biden’s immigration record, repeatedly declaring that Biden failed on the border.
如果缺乏更多细节，很难评估这意味着什么。这是否意味着将难民接收规模恢复到拜登时期的水平？是否意味着恢复针对那些面临本国恶劣处境的群体的临时保护身份，而特朗普已在很大程度上终止了这一机制？在美国获得庇护的标准，是否会比此前民主党总统执政时期更加严格？塔拉里科的竞选团队尚未对此作出详细说明。
Talarico’s plan is also heavy on adding border security. “That’s where the conversation begins,” Madrid notes. Talarico alludes to this himself with one of his frequent formulations“Our border should be like a front porch—it should have a welcome mat out front and a lock on the door.”The “lock” is important.
但从总体框架来看，这是一份人道且支持移民的议程。塔拉里科的基本价值观是，移民有利于国家，以无数方式 enriches our country? enriches = 丰富/增益. "it enriches our country in innumerable ways" 以无数方式促进国家发展. facilitate and encourage immigration, including among those seeking humanitarian sojourn here.
But let’s not neglect the “welcome mat” part. After all, Talarico’s plan calls for ICE to deprioritize the removals of longtime undocumented residents while focusing on dangerous criminals.
"为移民提供便利并予以鼓励，包括帮助那些寻求在本国进行人道主义居留的人" Here could mean US. "在我们这里 humanitarian sojourn" 在美国 humanitarian stay. Translate "包括为寻求人道主义居留的人提供便利". Third:的确，如果这一主张现在还可能引起共鸣，可能是因为特朗普基本关闭了边境，让人产生无证移民问题已经“解决”的印象。
It calls for a path to citizenship for many undocumented groups, though it’s not the large-scale amnesty that Senate Democrats passed in 2013 (which the GOP House killed). It would create new legal pathways for immigrants to come here and work.
这或许意味着，在如此艰难的处境下，民主党人现在必须像塔拉里科那样传达这样一个信息：他们不会允许美国退回到拜登时代的局面。如何在重建一个更加人道的制度体系的同时解释如何实现这一目标，确实是一项艰巨的挑战。归根结底，塔拉里科的方案要求美国移民与海关执法局降低长期无证居民被遣返的优先级，将重点放在危险罪犯身上。
It would maintain channels for asylum-seekers and refugees while calling for more judges to adjudicate such claims faster. It’s hard to evaluate this without more details. Would it mean going back to Biden-era levels of refugee admission?
方案还要求为许多无证移民群体提供入籍途径，尽管这并非参议院民主党人在2013年通过的大规模特赦（该法案被众议院共和党人否决）。方案将为移民赴美工作开辟新的合法渠道，并在呼吁增加法官以更快审理相关申请的同时，维持庇护申请者和难民的受理渠道。
A resumption of Temporary Protected Status for groups facing horrific home-country conditions, which Trump has largely killed? Tougher standards for achieving asylum here than under previous Democratic presidents?
如果缺乏更多细节，很难评估这意味着什么。这是否意味着将难民接收规模恢复到拜登时期的水平？是否意味着恢复针对那些面临本国恶劣处境的群体的临时保护身份，而特朗普已在很大程度上终止了这一机制？在美国获得庇护的标准，是否会比此前民主党总统执政时期更加严格？塔拉里科的竞选团队尚未对此作出详细说明。
Talarico’s campaign has not elaborated. But in its broad strokes, this is a humane, pro-immigrant agenda. Talarico’s baseline values hold that immigration is good, it enriches our country in innumerable ways, and we should facilitate and encourage it, including among those seeking humanitarian sojourn here.
但从总体框架来看，这是一份人道且支持移民的议程。塔拉里科的基本价值观是，移民有利于国家，以无数方式促进国家发展，我们应当为移民提供便利并予以鼓励，包括帮助那些寻求在美国进行人道主义居留的人。
True, if there is space for this message to resonate now, it may be because Trump mostly closed down the border, creating the impression that undocumented immigration has been “solved.”
的确，如果这一主张现在还可能引起共鸣，可能是因为特朗普基本关闭了边境，让人产生无证移民问题已经“解决”的印象。这或许意味着，在如此艰难的处境下，民主党人现在必须像塔拉里科那样传达这样一个信息：他们不会允许美国退回到拜登时代的局面。如何在重建一个更加人道的制度体系的同时解释如何实现这一目标，确实是一项艰巨的挑战。
Which might mean that in difficult territory, Democrats now have to convey—as Talarico does—that they won’t allow a reversion to the Biden-era status quo ante. Explaining how to accomplish this while rebuilding a far more humane system is a genuinely difficult challenge. But still, the ingredients are coming together for a big Democratic reset.
但即便如此，推动民主党大重置的各项条件正在逐步形成。“大多数美国人支持移民，”塔拉里科在奥斯汀的活动上表示。“纵观美国历史，移民始终让我们更富有、更强大。”他反对“必须在安全与欢迎陌生人之间作出选择”这种说法，并补充道：“我们不必在这些事情之间二选一。”塔拉里科经常谈论自己的信仰，而在这里，他有意识地使用了《圣经》中的语言。
“Most Americans are pro-immigrant,” Talarico said during the Austin event. “Throughout American history, immigrants have always made us richer and stronger.”He rejected the idea that “you’ve got to pick between security and welcoming the stranger,” adding: “We don’t have to pick between those things.”Talarico, who regularly speaks about his faith, is consciously using Biblical language here.
正如比尔·克里斯托尔所论证的那样，“欢迎陌生人”的义务在美国生活中令人感受至深，而且这不仅仅是一种宗教义务。我们身边的移民——用塔拉里科的话说，就是我们的“邻人”——所承受的痛苦与不公，已经成为生活中压倒性、无处不在的现实，而“特朗普主义晚期”那些日常的残酷行径仍无休止地碾压着我们。
The duty to “welcome the stranger” is deeply felt in American life, as Bill Kristol has argued and not just as a religious duty. The suffering and injustice borne by the immigrants all around us—our “neighbors,” as Talarico put it—have become crushingly omnipresent facts of life as the banal cruelties of Late Stage Trumpism relentlesly grind us down.
但无论胜负，塔拉里科已经证明，即便在深红色的得克萨斯州，人们也想要某种更高、更好的东西。我们每个人都想要。民主党人：不要退缩。请坦率而无畏地谈谈这种仍在闪烁的希望。
But win or lose, Talarico has already demonstrated that even in deep-red Texas, people want something higher, something better. We all do. Democrats: Don’t hold back. Speak to this still-flickering sense of hopefulness forthrightly and unflinchingly.