周三，华尔街获得了一些急需的通胀数据。8月份个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数同比上涨3.4%，远低于道琼斯预期的3.7%。剔除食品和能源价格后，核心PCE同比上涨3%，也低于预期。这些数据提振了股市早盘的表现，并推动国债收益率从多年高点回落。根据芝商所（CME Group）的FedWatch工具显示，10月份加息的可能性也从周二的50%左右降至35%。
Wall Street got some much-needed inflation data on Wednesday. The personal consumption expenditures price index rose 3.4% year over year in August, well below a Dow Jones forecast of 3.7%. Excluding food and energy, PCE increased by 3% year over year , also less than anticipated. Those numbers gave equities a boost in early trading while moving Treasury yields off of multiyear highs. It also moved odds of an October rate hike to 35% from around 50% on Tuesday, per the CME Group's FedWatch tool.
然而，由于交易员还在权衡ADP发布的最新就业数据，市场走势受到了一定抑制。9月份私营部门就业人数增加了9万人，超过了道琼斯预期的6.8万人。如果周五公布的美国就业报告强于预期，投资者可能会重新评估美联储再次加息的可能性。以下是华尔街一些投资者、经济学家和策略师对这些数据的看法：FWDBonds首席经济学家克里斯·鲁普基（Chris Rupkey）表示：“8月份的通胀之火并没有市场预期的那么猛烈……今天的数据表明经济并未过热，通胀情况比预期的要温和。没有必要急于进一步加息，决策者可以坐下来等待地缘政治风险的演变。通胀已经降温，何必着急呢？”
However, market moves were kept in check as traders also weighed the latest employment data out of ADP. Private payrolls rose by 90,000 in September , topping a Dow Jones consensus of 68,000. Should Friday's U.S. jobs report come in stronger than expected, investors may reprice the likelihood of another Fed rate increase. Here's what some investors, economists and strategists on Wall Street had to say about the data: Chris Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBonds: "The inflation fire is not burning as hot as markets expected in August. … The data today say the economy is not overheating, and that inflation was cooler than expected. There is no need to hurry with additional rate hikes and policymakers can sit and wait for how the geopolitical risks play out.
eToro美国投资分析师布雷特·肯威尔（Bret Kenwell）表示：“今天低于预期的通胀报告可能会让华尔街松一口气，尤其是投资者希望看到近期国债收益率的上涨能够降温，并希望下个月美联储加息的预期能够减弱……抗击通胀的战斗远未结束，但今天的数据朝着正确的方向迈出了一步。”
Inflation is cool, what's the hurry?" Bret Kenwell, U.S. investment analyst at eToro: "Today's cooler-than-expected inflation report will likely be a relief for Wall Street, particularly as investors hope to see the recent rise in Treasury yields cool and expectations for a Fed rate hike next month fade. … The inflation battle is hardly over, but today's numbers are a step in the right direction.
油价若明显回落，将有助于缓解通胀压力，但眼下的焦点是国债收益率。过去一个月，国债收益率大幅上升，而股市则相对保持韧性。”One Point BFG Wealth Partners首席投资官彼得·布克瓦尔表示：“[PCE]确实为美联储在10月按兵不动提供了理由，同时债券市场也在调整其定价。”Janus Henderson Investors基金经理亚当·赫茨表示：“底层经济再次显现出韧性，第二季度GDP增速上修至2.2%，第三季度GDP即时估值也格外强劲。尽管今天的通胀数据略好于预期，但强劲的劳动力和GDP数据表明，这份数据不太可能推翻市场对年底前再次加息的共识预期。”
A meaningful retreat in oil prices would help ease inflationary pressure, but the immediate focus is on Treasury yields, which have risen sharply over the past month even as equities have remained relatively resilient." Peter Boockvar, CIO of One Point BFG Wealth Partners: "[PCE] does give the Fed reason to wait in October with the bond market changing its pricing." Adam Hetts, portfolio manager at Janus Henderson Investors: "The underlying economy proves resilient once again, with Q2 GDP growth revised up to 2.2% alongside a particularly strong Q3 GDP nowcast. While today's inflation data is somewhat better than expected, strong labor and GDP data suggest the print is unlikely to derail consensus expectations for another rate hike before the end of the year."
Fifth Third Wealth Advisors首席投资官克里斯·奥斯蒙德表示：“今天的数据呈现出一个恰到好处的组合。……总体而言，这些数据利好风险资产，并大幅降低了10月加息的可能性，同时仍为第四季度加息保留了空间。”Navy Federal Credit Union首席经济学家希瑟·朗表示：“经济面临的首要问题是通胀高企。遏制通胀的进展已经停滞。美联储最看重的PCE通胀数据显示，8月份通胀并未取得任何进展。而9月份数据必然会更高。”
Chris Osmond, CIO at Fifth Third Wealth Advisors: "Today's data delivers a goldilocks combination. … The net effect is broadly supportive of risk assets and materially reduces the probability of an October rate hike, while keeping a Q4 hike on the table." Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union: "The No. 1 problem in the economy is hot inflation. Progress has stalled on taming it. The PCE Inflation data – the Federal Reserve's favorite – show no progress in August on inflation. And it's inevitable that September will be higher."