在阿尔巴尼斯政府首个任期内“原住民之声”公投遭否决后，工党的处境显得相当艰难。
After the defeat of the voice referendum during the Albanese government’s first term, things looked pretty rough for Labor.
工党的支持率跌至历史最差水平之一，政府议员也情绪低落。当时由彼得·达顿领导的联盟党开始设想赢得下一届选举的可能性。一年来，工党的支持率持续下滑，直到选举前几个月才有所回升。
Labor slumped to some of its worst polling levels and government MPs were in a funk. The Coalition, then led by Peter Dutton, started to imagine the possibility of winning after one term. Labor’s polls went in the wrong direction for a year, only turning around in the months before the election.
过去几周，阿尔巴尼斯政府的处境也开始变得同样艰难。周二的加息和周三公布的通胀数据，只会进一步加剧安东尼·阿尔巴尼斯和吉姆·查默斯面临的不利政治气氛。
Things have started to feel similarly ropey for the Albanese government in the past couple of weeks. Tuesday’s interest rate rise and Wednesday’s inflation numbers only compound the bad political vibes for Anthony Albanese and Jim Chalmers.
截至8月的一年内，总体通胀率从3.5%升至4%，截尾平均通胀率则连续第三个月维持在3.6%。上周，失业率升至近五年来的高位。
Headline inflation rose to 4% in the year to August, up from 3.5%, while trimmed mean inflation held steady at 3.6% for a third month. Last week, unemployment climbed to a near five-year high.
澳大利亚储备银行周二将现金利率上调至4.6%，创15年来最高水平，这本身已经足够糟糕。但央行行长米歇尔·布洛克还警告称，利率可能进一步上调，并将部分原因归咎于经济中的过度需求，称伊朗战争在国内既有问题之外又添了一层麻烦。
The Reserve Bank’s decision to lift the cash rate to 4.6% on Tuesday – the highest in 15 years – was bad enough. But the governor, Michele Bullock, also warned that more rises are possible, putting some of the blame on excess demand in the economy and describing the war in Iran as coming in addition to the existing problem at home.
这削弱了查默斯关于霍尔木兹海峡引发的全球动荡应归咎于通胀的说法。周三，这位财长甚至被媒体质问是否在用“煤气灯话术”迷惑选民。面对有关工党大规模支出计划的质疑，查默斯坚称政府支出正在下降，不过也承认他们还能做更多工作。
That took the air out of Chalmers’ argument that global disruption from the strait of Hormuz was to blame for inflation. On Wednesday, the treasurer was even asked by media if he was “gaslighting” voters. Challenged over Labor’s big spending agenda, Chalmers insisted government spending was coming down, though he conceded there was more work they could do.
从政治角度看，从现在到选举之间，工党正面临一个日益艰难的阶段。
In a political sense, Labor faces an increasingly difficult period between now and the election.
针对负杠杆税收优惠和资本利得税的调整已经令住房市场降温，这意味着房主必须在房屋价值下跌的同时，承担更高的房贷还款额。扩大生活成本援助的代价十分高昂，而且几乎无助于扭转通胀。
Already changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax are cooling the housing market, meaning homeowners will have to pay more for their mortgages at the same time as the value of their home drops. Demand for more cost-of-living assistance comes with a big price tag and would do little to turn around inflation.
工党并没有太多可行选择。它希望兑现选举承诺、帮助家庭，包括减税、增加儿童照护和澳大利亚技术与成人教育（TAFE）课程支出，以及改善医疗保险服务——这些举措没有一项代价低廉。削减医疗或社会服务开支会辜负工党选民，其中包括一些对国家残障保险计划（NDIS）被削减400亿澳元感到愤怒的选民。政府如何为全民托育体系计划筹措资金，仍是未知数。
Labor doesn’t have many good options. It wants to deliver on election promises and help households, including by offering tax cuts and increased spending on childcare, Tafe courses and improved Medicare services – none of which comes cheap. Cuts to health or social services would break faith with Labor voters, some of whom are angry at $40bn in cuts to the NDIS. How the government can afford its universal childcare system plan is yet to be seen.
时势越来越有利于“一国党”。宝琳·汉森能够将选民的怨气和失望原样反馈给他们，这种能力无人能及；对抗议型政党而言，没有什么比家庭持续承受的经济痛苦更有威力。
The times suit One Nation more and more. Pauline Hanson’s ability to reflect voters’ grievances and disillusionment back to them is unrivalled, and nothing is more powerful for protest parties than sustained economic pain for households.
尚不清楚安格斯·泰勒能否借工党的困境改善联盟党的支持率。本周，他指责查默斯不懂商业或经济，但随后又拒绝承认，包括伊朗战争在内的任何国际因素对通胀的影响。
It is unclear if Angus Taylor can improve the Coalition’s standing off the back of Labor’s woes. This week he attacked Chalmers for not understanding business or the economy, but then refused to acknowledge any international effect at all on inflation, including the Iran war.
一些工党议员已经私下就政府处理经济问题的信息表达担忧，敦促阿尔博内斯和查默斯推进严肃改革，并采取更多措施帮助小企业。这些措施很难取得成果，推进速度也可能很慢。
Some Labor MPs have already spoken up privately about their concerns on the government’s economic message, urging Albanese and Chalmers to take on serious reform and do more to help small business. These measures would be hard won and likely slow moving.
如果工党要避免重演“原住民声音”公投之后的低迷，遏制通胀势在必行。要恢复该党在民调中的表现将比上次更难，持续加息势必会让它在政治上缓慢死亡。“一国党”或许会成为唯一的赢家。
If Labor is to avoid another malaise like the one that followed the voice referendum, turning the tide on inflation is essential. Restoring the party’s position in the polls will be harder than last time, with sustained interest rate rises sure to prompt a slow political death. One Nation might be the only winner.