9月30日——俄罗斯警告北约：如果西方联盟试图切断或攻击俄罗斯的加里宁格勒地区，俄罗斯将不排除使用核武器。
Sept 30 - Russia has warned NATO that it would be ready to resort to nuclear weapons if the Western alliance tried to cut off or attack the Russian region of Kaliningrad.
加里宁格勒位于何处？加里宁格勒是一块高度军事化的飞地，与俄罗斯本土其他地区隔离开来，地处北约成员国波兰和立陶宛之间，同时濒临波罗的海。该地区人口约100万，面积略大于美国的康涅狄格州。
WHERE AND WHAT IS KALININGRAD? It's a highly militarised exclave - separated from the main mass of Russian territory - that is wedged between NATO members Poland and Lithuania and also borders the Baltic Sea.
加里宁格勒为何属于俄罗斯？加里宁格勒原为德国城市柯尼斯堡（Königsberg），是东普鲁士的首府。1945年4月红军占领该地后，它成为苏联的一部分。二战结束后，战胜国将东普鲁士分割开来，加里宁格勒随之归入苏联版图。
It has a population of about 1 million and is slightly bigger in area than the US state of Connecticut. HOW DID IT COME TO BE RUSSIAN? Kaliningrad, formerly the German city of Königsberg and capital of East Prussia, became part of the Soviet Union after the Red Army captured it in April 1945 and the victorious allies divided East Prussia at the end of World War Two.
其战略重要性何在？加里宁格勒为俄罗斯提供了部署防空部队、导弹系统和海军力量的基地，使俄罗斯能够向北欧和中欧地区投射军事力量。然而，由于其被两个北约成员国包围的地理位置，该地区在战争中容易成为俄罗斯的薄弱环节——因为俄罗斯难以维持补给线或增援部队。
WHAT MAKES IT STRATEGICALLY IMPORTANT? It provides Russia with a platform for air defence, missile and naval forces that can project power deep into northern and central Europe.
近期紧张局势的根源是什么？自2022年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰以来，加里宁格勒地区的紧张局势持续升级。北约为此采取了加强东部防线的措施：芬兰和瑞典分别于2023年和2024年加入了北约。俄罗斯认为西方对加里宁格勒的威胁日益严重。2026年5月，立陶宛外交部长称北约有能力“突破俄罗斯在加里宁格勒建立的防御体系”并摧毁当地的防空设施和导弹基地，俄罗斯对此表示强烈不满，称其言论“近乎疯狂”。
At the same time, it is a potentially vulnerable pressure point for Moscow because of its boxed-in location between two NATO states and the difficulty of maintaining supply lines or reinforcing it in the event of a war. WHAT HAS LED TO THE LATEST SPIKE IN TENSIONS? These have been rising steadily since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which led NATO to move decisively to strengthen its eastern flank. The alliance has expanded in the region, with Finland and Sweden joining in 2023 and 2024 respectively.
一名西方军事消息人士告诉路透社，8月中旬，北约成员国数十架飞机参与了加里宁格勒周边空域一次未经宣布的行动。这表明，一旦与俄罗斯发生冲突，北约有能力切断该飞地的无线电和雷达联系，并使其防空系统失效。
Russia perceives a growing Western threat to Kaliningrad. In May 2026, it slammed remarks by Lithuania's foreign minister as "verging on insanity" after he said NATO had to show Moscow it was capable of "penetrating the small fortress they've built in Kaliningrad" and razing Russian air defences and missile bases there.
俄罗斯驻欧洲各国大使馆在社交媒体上发帖，着重提及莫斯科所认为的北约在波罗的海地区构成威胁的军事调动，以及政策制定者和媒体针对加里宁格勒发表的鹰派言论。
A Western military source told Reuters that dozens of aircraft from NATO members were involved in an unannounced operation in the airspace around Kaliningrad in mid-August, demonstrating the capability to cut off the exclave's radio and radar links as well as its air defences in the event of a conflict with Russia.
北约表示，部分出于对关键海底能源和通信基础设施受到威胁的担忧，北约已加强在波罗的海地区的军事存在。在回应俄方警告时，北约敦促莫斯科停止其“日益鲁莽的行为”和“不负责任的核言论”。专家担心什么可能引发危机？
In social media posts, Russian embassies in Europe have highlighted what Moscow sees as threatening NATO military movements in the Baltic and hawkish rhetoric on Kaliningrad from policymakers and in the media. NATO says it has increased its presence in the Baltic Sea partly in response to concerns about threats to critical undersea energy and communications infrastructure. In its response to the Russian warning, it urged Moscow to halt its "increasingly reckless behaviour" and "irresponsible nuclear rhetoric".
自2022年以来，欧洲各国一直走在一线之间：一方面向乌克兰提供武器和情报，并对俄罗斯实施制裁，另一方面又避免亲自参战。不过，莫斯科本周表示，这些国家实际上已在“对俄开战”。
WHAT DO EXPERTS FEAR COULD SPARK A CRISIS? European states have been walking a fine line since 2022 - supporting Ukraine with weapons, intelligence and sanctions against Russia while stopping short of joining the conflict themselves - though Moscow said this week they are already "waging war" against it.
安全分析人士说，任何误判都可能导致直接军事对抗，而加里宁格勒凭借其地理位置，可能成为潜在的冲突爆发点。
Security analysts say any miscalculation could lead to a direct military confrontation - and Kaliningrad, by virtue of its location, would be a potential flashpoint.
可能触发局势的导火索包括无人机事件、关键基础设施中断、大规模新增导弹部署，或任何被莫斯科视为北约试图对这一飞地实施封锁的事情。
Among the possible triggers could be drone incidents, disruption of critical infrastructure, major new missile deployments or anything perceived by Moscow as amounting to a NATO attempt to impose a blockade on the exclave.