利物浦释放出令人乐观的好气氛之后，是时候提醒人们这个冬天将会发生什么了：能源账单将在新年到来时大幅上涨，最贫困家庭受创最深，而政府似乎对此毫无准备。
fter the hopeful good vibes in Liverpool, here comes a reminder of what is coming this winter: a mighty new year shock in energy bills, hitting the poorest hardest, that the government looks unprepared for.
从本周四起，适用于普通电、气双能源家庭的季度价格上限为1723英镑；至于2027年前三个月的价格，各方预测不一。
From the quarterly price cap level of £1,723 that will apply from Thursday for an average dual-fuel household, take your pick from a range of forecasts for the first three months of 2027.
能源咨询公司康沃尔洞察预测为1999英镑，大型供应商法国电力公司则预计为2076英镑。取两者中间值，就意味着单位费率较上一季度上涨18%，而且恰好发生在一年中用量最高的时段——能源消费高峰月份。
Energy consultancy Cornwall Insight says £1,999 Big supplier EDF thinks £2,076 Split the difference and we’re talking about a 18% quarter-on-quarter rise in the unit rate at the worst time of the year, the months of peak consumption.
众所周知，直接原因是天然气价格飙升，但政府不能声称对此感到意外。自从唐纳德·特朗普在中东的冒险不再仅仅持续一周以来，价格长期大幅上行的威胁就一直存在。
Everybody knows the immediate reason – soaring gas prices – but the government cannot claim to be surprised by events. The threat of a prolonged price spike has been present ever since Donald Trump’s Middle East misadventure became more than a one-week affair.
诚然，政府只是在一些边缘细节上做了调整。蕾切尔·里夫斯担任财政大臣时，从4月起将相当一部分绿色税费改由一般税收承担。安迪·伯纳姆则推出了一项“喘息空间”措施，从本周四起将电力增值税从5%下调至零，为期六个月。
The government, it’s true, has fiddled at the margin. Rachel Reeves, when chancellor, took a chunk of green levies into general taxation from April. Andy Burnham cut VAT on electricity from 5% to zero for six months, starting on Thursday, in one of his “breathing space” measures. But what is missing from the government’s response is properly targeted help for the most vulnerable.
“温暖家园”折扣计划确实存在——去年有550万低收入家庭享受每户150英镑的优惠，费用由所有账单缴纳者共同承担——但几乎所有人都认为，面对即将到来的账单，其力度远远不够，而且遗漏了大批按更合理的“弱势群体”定义本应获得援助的家庭，例如因健康原因而有较高能源需求的家庭。多年来，各智库、慈善机构、监管机构和能源公司一直倡导的共识性方案，是一套设计完善且具有灵活性的社会电价或折扣计划。
The warm homes discount scheme – worth £150, used by 5.5m low-income households last year and paid for by all bill payers – exists but virtually everybody agrees it is inadequate for the bills on the way and misses swathes of households who would fall within a better definition of “vulnerable”, such as those with high energy needs for health reasons. The consensus answer, promoted by various thinktanks, charities, regulators and energy companies for years, is a well-designed flexible social tariff or discount scheme.
例如，在2023年2月，由于俄罗斯对乌克兰的战争导致天然气价格飙升时，Ofgem（英国能源监管机构）的首席执行官曾表示：“鉴于账单价格持续居高不下，我们有必要紧急研究为最弱势群体提供‘社会性补贴’（即特殊优惠）的可行性。”然而三年过去了， successive governments（即历届政府）却丝毫没有表现出紧迫感。
Here, for example, was the chief executive of Ofgem as long ago as February 2023 after the gas price spike caused by Russia’s war on Ukraine: “We think that, with bills continuing to be so high, there is a case for examining with urgency the feasibility of a social tariff for customers in the most vulnerable situations.”Three winters later, it is hard to spot signs of urgency on the part of successive governments.
没有人会假装制定这样的补贴政策是一件容易的事；实际上，这需要整合大量数据——包括家庭收入（而非英国税务海关总署掌握的个人收入信息）、健康记录以及能源消耗情况——并做出极其复杂的决策。虽然完美无缺的方案几乎不可能实现，但这样的政策肯定比今年冬天将要出现的情况要好得多。今年冬天，约翰·希利（John Healey）很可能会在下一份预算报告中提高“温暖家园计划”（即针对低收入家庭的能源补贴计划）的补贴金额，因为这是他目前唯一可用的手段。
Nobody pretends a social tariff is easy to design. At heart, it’s a data exercise that would have to take in household income (as opposed to information on individual incomes held by HMRC), health records and energy consumption. Cliff-edge judgments would have to be made. Perfection would be impossible.
此外，希利还可以考虑取消天然气和电力的增值税（尽管这可能与英国的能源转型计划相悖）。或者，正如两周前120个组织所建议的那样，他将更多因能源转型而产生的“隐性税收”纳入税收体系（这样做确实有充分的理由，但从他的角度来看，这些措施可能会被视为增加民众负担的措施）。
But the result would surely be better than what will come this winter, which will probably be John Healey upping the level of the warm homes discount in next month’s budget because it’s the only lever available to him.
能源部长米娅塔·法恩布莱（Miatta Fahnbulleh）似乎已经意识到了自己接手时面临的混乱局面。鉴于能源系统中的消费者债务预计到今年年底将高达70亿英镑（这一数字实在惊人），她几乎不可能忽视这一严重问题。
In addition, Healey could conceivably remove VAT from gas as well as electricity (though that would run against the national electrification agenda). Or, as urged by 120 organisations a fortnight ago he could take more of the “hidden taxes” of energy transition into taxation (there are excellent reasons to do so, though all will look expensive from his point of view).
“有一个问题亟需得到解答……我们必须认真考虑相关成本，以及如何以最公平的方式来弥补这些损失，”她在本周接受《Politics Weekly》播客采访时说道。
Miatta Fahnbulleh, the energy secretary, seems to recognise the mess she has inherited. She could hardly miss it now that unpaid consumer debts in the energy system are projected to reach a colossal £7bn by the end of this year“There is a question that needs to be answered … we have to think about the costs and how we recover it in the most fair way,”
的确，这是一个非常重要的问题。令人欣慰的是，法恩布莱并没有重复她前任那些不切实际的承诺（比如“到2030年将账单费用降低300英镑”）；因为EDF（英国能源公司）对未来十年账单费用的预测更为现实。即便天然气价格下降，那些“居高不下”的非商品性成本（即能源系统的运营成本）仍将继续增加。
she told this paper’s Politics Weekly podcast this week Yes, that is indeed the question, and it’s encouraging that Fahnbulleh is not parroting her predecessor’s dreamy line about “£300 off bills by 2030” because everybody can also see that“stubbornly high” – EDF’s projection for bills for the end of the decade – is more realistic. Higher “non-commodity” costs are coming down the track even when the gas price falls.
然而，政府似乎仍未就如何为最弱势群体提供有效的账单补贴方案达成一致。到了冬季，人们又将不得不在最后一刻匆忙寻找解决方案，从而导致燃料贫困问题比实际情况更加严重。政府多年来一直犹豫不决、缺乏明确计划，这种行为实在令人无法原谅。
But it does not sound as if the government is even close to settling on a joined-up model for bill support for the most vulnerable that could serve for this winter and future winters. It’ll be the usual last-minute scramble for ideas and higher levels of fuel poverty than needed to be the case. The multi-year dithering is inexcusable.