2026年最热门的投资领域并非人工智能，而是运输石油和燃料的船舶。由于全球各地的冲突导致航运距离延长，相关服务提供商得以收取更高的费用。SonicShares Global Shipping (BOAT) ETF 自成立以来表现优异：截至本季度末，其涨幅已达35%，有望创下自2021年上市以来的最佳业绩；全年累计涨幅更是高达63%，远超科技和人工智能等相关领域的表现。State Street的Technology Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) 在第三季度的涨幅为3%，全年累计涨幅为36%。
The hottest trade of 2026 isn't artificial intelligence. Instead, it's ships carrying oil and fuel as conflicts around the world force longer voyages, allowing takers to charge a premium for their services. The SonicShares Global Shipping (BOAT) ETF is up 35% quarter to date, on pace for its best quarter since its inception in 2021. Year to date, it's up a whopping 63% — far outpacing other parts of the market, including tech and AI. State Street's Technology Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) is up 3% in Q3 and 36% for the year.
在油轮行业中，许多表现优异的公司主要负责运输石油和精炼产品：例如，Okeanis Eco Tankers（一家原油运输公司）本季度的涨幅超过60%，全年累计涨幅更是超过100%；Dorian LPG（专门运输液化石油气的公司）本季度涨幅为58%，全年累计涨幅超过121%；Nordic American Tankers（一家运营双壳油轮的公司）本季度涨幅为43%，全年累计涨幅超过131%。
Many of the tanker industry's top performers are transporters of oil and refined products: Okeanis Eco Tankers , transporter of crude oil, is up more than 60% this quarter and has more than doubled year to date. Dorian LPG , which specializes in transporting liquified petroleum gas, is up 58% quarter to date and has more than doubled year to date up over 121%. Nordic American Tankers , operator of double hull oil tankers, is up 43% quarter to date and has more than doubled, up 131% year to date.
德意志银行LNG基础设施与海运部门主管Chris Robertson表示：“油轮股价的上涨与‘运输里程的增加’密切相关。”简单来说，如今石油和燃料需要通过效率较低的航线进行运输，因此运输成本上升。由于船舶被长时间占用，可用于运输新货物的船只数量减少，从而导致运价上涨。Robertson将油轮市场的繁荣归因于三大地缘政治因素：最近的是霍尔木兹海峡的封锁（该海峡是原油和精炼产品运输的重要通道）；其次是俄罗斯原油及精炼产品受到的制裁（由于俄罗斯入侵乌克兰）；还有也门胡塞武装对红海航运船只的袭击。这些地缘政治紧张局势共同“拉长了整个供应链的长度，降低了运输效率”。
"The run up in tanker stocks is related to what's called expanding tonne miles," said Chris Robertson, Deutsche Bank's director of LNG infrastructure and maritime shipping. Simply put, oil and fuel today are traveling farther on less efficient routes. With ships tied up for longer, fewer are available to carry the next cargo. Robertson traced the tanker market's upswing to three geopolitical disruptions. The most recent is the blockade around the Strait of Hormuz, a key choke point for shipping crude oil and refined products. The two others include sanctions on Russian crude and refined products following the invasion in Ukraine and Yemeni Houthi attacks on shipping vessels in the Red Sea. Taken together, these geopolitical tensions have been "stretching out the entire supply chain and making things less efficient," Robertson said.
油轮公司的盈利主要取决于运费——即客户为通过船舶运输石油所支付的费用。
Tanker earnings are driven by freight rates, or what customers pay to move oil by ship.
如果航线更长，或因安全担忧而运营中断，这些费率就会上升。持续的地缘政治冲突一直是高风险保险成本上升的核心原因，因为船东要求获得更高的保险费，才愿意在高风险地区装载货物。 罗伯逊说：“只要袭击威胁仍然存在，费率就会继续保持高位。”他还赞扬了这些公司资产负债表状况的改善，以及“非常稳健”的股东回报政策。
Those rates go up if there's longer routes or disruptions due to security concerns. Ongoing geopolitical conflicts have been the core driver of higher costs for more risk insurance as ship owners demand a premium price to take on the risk of loading cargoes in high-risk areas. "As long as the threat of attack remains in place, rates will continue to be very robust," Robertson said. He also praised their improving their balance sheets, and "very robust" shareholder return policies.
罗伯逊表示：“许多上市油轮公司在偿还债务方面大幅改善了资产负债表。”从盈利角度看，这意味着利息支出减少，偿债负担减轻，从而有更多现金可用于派发股息和回购股票。根据国际海上运输公司（International Seaways）8月10日发布的最新业绩报告，该全球最大油轮公司之一连续第三季度将净收入的85%返还给股东。
"Many of the publicly listed tanker companies have dramatically improved their balance sheets in paying down their debt," Robertson said. From an earnings perspective, that means there's less interest expense and less debt serviced. That leaves more cash available for dividends and share repurchases. International Seaways , one of the largest global tanker companies, had 85% of its net income returned to shareholders, for the third consecutive quarter, as of the company's latest earnings report on Aug. 10.
尽管现货市场目前接近高位，但这并不意味着运输成本会迅速下降。罗伯逊表示，即使中东石油出口已从今年早些时候的低迷中复苏运费仍将在短期内保持高位，因为只要船只遭袭的可能性仍然存在，运营商就可能对进入该地区收取更高费用。罗伯逊说：“船只仍然面临遭袭风险。”因此，他补充称，油轮公司“仍会要求更高的风险溢价，才会进入战区”。
While the spot market is near its peak at the moment, that doesn't mean shipping costs could fall quickly. Robertson said freight costs should remain elevated for the time being even as oil exports from the Middle East recovered from earlier this year. That's because operators may still charge more to enter the region while ship attacks remain a possibility. "There's still risk of attacks on ships" Robertson said. Therefore, he added, tankers are "still going to demand a higher premium to go into a war region."