沙特如何化解邻国也门胡塞武装构成的威胁，以及可以向谁求助，目前尚不清楚。美国无意介入，欧洲各国态度摇摆，没人愿意与伊朗公开冲突。
It's unclear how the Saudis can defuse the threat presented by the Houthis in next-door Yemen or who they can turn to for help. The US isn't interested, the Europeans are hedging and nobody wants open conflict with Iran.
也门萨那一幅描绘曼德海峡航运限制的壁画。上周，由于邻国也门的胡塞武装持续发动袭击，沙特阿拉伯一些学生被告知应待在家中并通过线上方式上课。然而第二天警报便解除，他们获准返回学校线下上课。
A mural depicting shipping restrictions in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait in Sanaa, Yemen Last week, some students in Saudi Arabia were told they should stay at home and attend classes online, due to continued threats from attacks by the Houthi group in neighboring Yemen. But the very next day, they were given the all-clear and allowed to return to school in person.
沙特阿拉伯与也门胡塞武装之间的冲突似乎已成为沙特日常生活的一部分。经过一段相对平静的时期后，胡塞武装从7月开始不断加大对沙特的袭击，向其境内发射了大量导弹和无人机。
The conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Houthi militia in Yemen seems to have become part of everyday life in Saudi Arabia. After a period of comparative calm the Houthis have been ramping up attacks on the country, starting July, and have fired many missiles and drones over the border.
近几周来，胡塞武装还在也门进一步推进，占据了也门海岸和红海数个岛屿的更多控制区。这意味着他们能够监视曼德海峡的海上交通。该水道连接红海与亚丁湾。
Over recent weeks, the Houthi militia have also pushed further into Yemen taking more control of the Yemeni coast and several islands in the Red Sea. This means they can oversee maritime traffic in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The waterway connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden.
胡塞武装袭击后，沙特首都利雅得一座机场的燃料库冒起滚滚浓烟。新一轮胡塞武装袭击威胁到沙特“2030愿景”。这是沙特领导人王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼提出的一项宏大计划，旨在推动沙特摆脱对石油收入的依赖。要将“2030愿景”变为现实，沙特需要保持稳定，但目前形势正朝着相反方向发展。
A plume of smoke rises from a fuel depot at the airport in Saudi Arabia's capital, Riyadh, after Houthi attacks The renewed Houthi attacks endanger Vision 2030, Saudi Arabia's ambitious project to move the kingdom away from its dependence on oil revenues, which was conceived by Saudi leader Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. To make Vision 2030 a reality, Saudi Arabia needs stability — but right now, the outlook is moving in the opposite direction.
“也门局势的升级正将沙特更深地拖入地区战争，而这场战争实际上是沙特希望避免的。”弗里德里希·埃伯特基金会中东地区和平与安全项目负责人马库斯·施奈德说。
"The escalation in Yemen is drawing the Saudis deeper into the regional war, a war that Saudi Arabia actually wanted to prevent," said Marcus Schneider, who heads the Friedrich Ebert Foundation's Regional Peace and Security Project in the Middle East.
对全球能源的影响 沙特阿拉伯的能源基础设施尤其容易受到胡塞武装袭击，而后者已经扰乱了全长超过1200公里的所谓“东西输油管道”。在其他运输路线因美国、以色列和伊朗之间的战斗变得不安全后，该管道被用于运输石油，例如通过霍尔木兹海峡航运的路线。
Impact on world's energy Saudi Arabia's energy infrastructure is particularly vulnerable to Houthi attacks which have already disrupted the so-called East-West pipeline, which runs for over 1,200 kilometers. It was being used to transport oil after other routes, such as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, became precarious due to fighting between the United States, Israel and Iran.
由于胡塞武装的袭击，曼德海峡——其英文意为“眼泪之门”——也正承受巨大压力。
thanks to the Houthis the Bab el-Mandeb Strait — which means "gate of tears" in English — is also coming under pressure.
美国智库卡内基国际和平基金会中东项目非驻校学者安德鲁·莱伯称，这是“管道遇袭和红海扣船的双重打击”。事实上，这可能迫使沙特重新尝试通过霍尔木兹海峡运输石油，尽管这条航线仍受到严重限制。
Andrew Leber, a nonresident scholar in the Middle East program of the US think tank, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, calls it a "one-two punch of pipeline attacks and Red Sea seizures." In fact, it may send the Saudis back to the Strait of Hormuz to try to ship their oil, even though that route is still heavily restricted.
一名也门士兵在曼德海峡守卫一艘液化石油气运输船。谁来提供援助？
A Yemeni soldier guards an LPG tanker at the Bab al-Mandeb Strait Who will help?
作为沙特盟友，美国不太可能伸出援手。华盛顿表示将以情报和侦察支持沙特，但美国总统唐纳德·特朗普似乎不愿直接介入针对胡塞武装的军事行动。美国智库战略与国际研究中心称，部分原因可能是美国在持续对伊朗采取军事行动后承受着压力。
It is unlikely that Saudi ally the US, is going to send help. Washington has said it will support the Saudis with intelligence and reconnaissance, but President Donald Trump appears reluctant to get involved in a direct military campaign against the Houthis According to a US-based think tank, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, this may partially be because the it is feeling the strain of its ongoing campaign against Iran.
该中心上周在一篇评论中写道：“据报道，美国军方面临严重挑战，包括一些先进拦截弹短缺的问题。”
"The US military is reportedly facing serious challenges, including shortages of some sophisticated interceptors," the CSIS wrote in a commentary last week.
美国外交关系委员会也撰文称，美国的“爱国者”导弹、拦截弹和巡航导弹库存正在减少。因此，在也门对伊朗的战争中开辟另一个战场，并非美国所愿。
The US Council on Foreign Relations, or CFR, has also written about dwindling stocks of Patriot and interceptor missiles, as well as cruise missiles. So the risk of opening another front in its war with Iran, in Yemen, is not a welcome prospect for the US.
就目前而言，美国的空袭无论如何都不太可能解决胡塞武装问题。美国外交关系委员会（CFR）写道，要化解胡塞武装带来的威胁，就必须发动大规模、协调一致的地面行动，尤其是当有关方面希望将也门民兵赶出其近期夺取的曼德海峡周边地区时。沙特阿拉伯对此也不太热衷。尽管美国和邻近的阿联酋提供支援，由沙特牵头、于2015年至2022年间与胡塞武装作战的联盟仍未能取得任何决定性胜利。这也显示了沙特军事力量的局限。
As it is, US airstrikes are unlikely to resolve the Houthi problem anyway. The CFR writes that to defuse the Houthi threat, a large, coordinated ground operation is needed, especially if forces want to push the Yemeni militia back out of the areas they recently took around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait Saudi Arabia is not too enthusiastic about this either. Despite help from the US and neighboring United Arab Emirates, a Saudi coalition that fought against the Houthis between 2015 and 2022 failed to achieve any kind of decisive victory. It also demonstrated the limits of Saudi military power.
双方存在明显的军事不对称。沙特拥有现代化武器，并在武装力量上投入巨额资金。但胡塞武装并不需要赢得一场传统战争。对他们而言，只需利用导弹和无人机威胁基础设施、扰乱航运就足够了。
There's clear military asymmetry. Saudi Arabia possesses modern weapons and spends enormous sums on its armed forces. But the Houthis don't need to win a conventional war. It is enough for them to use missiles and drones to threaten infrastructure and disrupt shipping.
施奈德告诉德国之声（DW）：“胡塞武装在也门根基深厚，能够承受相当严重的打击。相比之下，沙特为了实现2030年经济愿景，首要需要的是稳定。而目前，稳定比以往任何时候都更加遥不可及。”欧洲能提供帮助吗？
"The Houthis are well-established in Yemen and can withstand considerable blows," Schneider told DW. "Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, needs stability above all for its 2030 economic vision. And this is currently further away than ever."
自2024年初以来，欧洲通过所谓的“阿斯皮德斯行动”保护红海国际航运。意大利最近表示，打算由海军保障本国商船通行。几天前，法国也宣布将向沙特派遣士兵、雷达系统和防空力量，以保护红海港口延布，以及东西输油管道的终点。
Help from the Europeans? Since early 2024, through what is known as Operation Aspides, Europe has been protecting international shipping in the Red Sea Italy has recently said it intends to secure passage for its own merchant ships with its navy. And a few days ago France said it would send soldiers, radar systems and air defense to the Saudis in order to protect the Red Sea port of Yanbu the terminus of the East-West pipeline.
不过，这些欧洲举措不太可能在也门带来任何战略层面的转变。专家认为，欧洲不愿承担在那里进行长期战争所需的政治和军事代价。
Still, these European initiatives are unlikely to bring about any sort of strategic shift in Yemen. And experts argue Europe is unwilling to accept the political and military cost of a protracted war there.
新的麦加联盟：土耳其、沙特阿拉伯和巴基斯坦的军事首长于今年9月在沙特阿拉伯举行会议。“法国现已宣布将提供具体的军事援助，这一消息在利雅得受到了非常积极的评价，”施奈德解释道。“但问题依然存在：这能否从根本上改变军事格局？”最近与巴基斯坦和土耳其结成的共同防御条约被称为“麦加联盟”，但这一条约也有其局限。三国军事领导人就近期胡塞武装的袭击相互进行了磋商，但土耳其和巴基斯坦也不愿被卷入一场使其直接与伊朗对抗的冲突。
The new Mecca alliance: A meeting of military chiefs from Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, held in Saudi Arabia in September this year "The fact that France has now announced it will provide concrete military assistance has been received very positively in Riyadh," Schneider explained. "But still the question remains as to whether this can fundamentally alter the military balance." The recently formed mutual defense pact with Pakistan and Turkey, known as the Mecca alliance, also has its limits. The military leaders of all three countries have consulted with one another over recent Houthis attacks but Turkey and Pakistan are also reluctant to be drawn into a conflict that would see them confronting Iran directly.
外交是前进之道：所有这一切都意味着，外交举措很可能再次变得更为重要。
Diplomacy the way forward All this means that diplomatic overtures will likely become more important again.
此前接受德国之声采访时，萨那战略研究中心的阿卜杜勒加尼·阿里亚尼指出，胡塞武装实际上确实有兴趣发展与沙特阿拉伯的关系。
In a previous interview with DW, Abdulghani al-Iryani of the Sanaa Center for Strategic Studies noted that the Houthis do actually have an interest in relations with Saudi Arabia.
“也门在经济上完全依赖沙特阿拉伯，沙特阿拉伯既提供人道主义援助，也是也门移民工人的就业市场，”阿里亚尼说。
"Yemen is completely economically dependent on Saudi Arabia, both as a source of humanitarian aid and as a labor market for Yemeni migrant workers," al-Iryani said.
近年来，沙特阿拉伯试图通过外交手段以及团结分裂的也门政府军来遏制胡塞武装的影响。然而，该武装组织目前的推进势头似乎表明，这一战略存在局限。本文最初以德语发布。沙特阿拉伯为什么无法阻止胡塞武装？要观看此视频，请考虑升级至支持HTML5视频的网页浏览器。
In recent years, Saudi Arabia has tried to curb the Houthis' influence through diplomacy and by uniting divided Yemeni government forces. However the militia's current advance seems to demonstrate the limitations of this strategy. This story was originally published in German. Why can't Saudi Arabia stop the Houthis? To view this video , and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video