如果共和党在11月的选举中失去对国会的控制，他们将迅速采取措施延长联邦债务上限的期限，直至唐纳德·特朗普总统的任期结束。此举的目的是防止民主党利用这一议题在分裂的政府中获取政治优势（即迫使共和党做出让步）。
Senate Republicans are laying the groundwork to quickly extend the federal debt ceiling through the end of President Donald Trump’s term should they lose control of Congress this November, aiming to prevent Democrats from weaponizing the issue to extract concessions in divided government.
目前，联邦债务上限的截止日期预计为2027年春季左右。过去，债务上限的提高大多是在两党合作的基础上完成的，这为少数党（即民主党）提供了向急于避免经济危机的政府施压、从而获取让步的机会。然而，去年的债务上限提升是通过党内投票决定的；共和党人希望明年能够剥夺民主党手中的这一重要谈判筹码。
The debt ceiling, which is set to be reached sometime around spring of 2027, has mostly been raised on a bipartisan basis, creating the opportunity for the minority party to extract concessions from the White House desperate to avoid an economic shock. But congressional Republicans raised the debt limit last year on a party-line vote, and are hoping to move to deprive Democrats of a potentially powerful bargaining chip next year.
这一幕后计划得到了多位参议员、另外两位知情人士以及G·威廉·霍格兰（G. William Hoagland）的证实。霍格兰曾担任参议院预算委员会的高级共和党助手，现任职于总部位于华盛顿的“两党政策中心”（Bipartisan Policy Center）。部分议员在匿名条件下透露了这些私人谈话的内容。
The behind-the-scenes planning was described by multiple senators, two other sources with the knowledge of the matter, and G. William Hoagland, who served as a senior GOP aide to the Senate Budget Committee and is now at the Washington-based Bipartisan Policy Center. Some of the lawmakers spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe private conversations.
霍格兰表示：“如果中期选举后国会控制权发生变化，他们将真正努力在年底前解决债务上限问题。”他还提到自己与“高层消息人士”的对话：“他们计划迅速采取行动，将债务上限问题从谈判议程中移除。如果他们在中期选举中失去对参议院或众议院的控制权，就会这么做。”根据法律规定，美国财政部仅被授权借款最多41.1万亿美元；如果债务上限无法得到提升，美国将面临前所未有的债务违约风险，这很可能引发全球经济的灾难。
“If the chambers change in the midterms, there will be a real effort to deal with the debt limit before the end of the year,” Hoagland said, citing conversations he has had with “very high sources.”
参议院多数党领袖约翰·图恩（John Thune，来自南达科他州）周三对记者表示，他已经与参议院预算委员会主席罗恩·约翰逊（Ron Johnson，来自威斯康星州）进行了沟通，并表示在下次国会选举前的过渡期内，提高债务上限将是可行的选择之一。
“They’d plan to move fast to take the debt limit off the table. They’re planning on doing this if they lose one of the chambers in the midterms.”The Treasury Department is only legally authorized to borrow up to $41.1 trillion. Failure to lift it would lead the U.S. to an unprecedented default on its debt obligations, and likely trigger a calamity for the global economy.
参议院共和党人是否有足够票数通过党派路线投票提高债务上限尚不清楚。由共和党主导的众议院是否会批准参议院通过的任何方案也同样不确定。
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (South Dakota) told reporters on Wednesday that he has spoken to Senate Budget Chair Ron Johnson (R-Wisconsin) and said raising the debt limit would be among “potential options” for the lame-duck period between the midterms and the new Congress.
共和党议员正考虑将一些措施纳入另一项预算协调法案，该法案只需简单多数即可通过。这些措施包括增加军事资金、援助因能源成本飙升而受损的农民，以及针对联邦医疗支出的新反欺诈提案。图恩表示，债务上限也在考虑之中。
It is unclear if Senate Republicans would have the votes to lift the debt ceiling in a party-line vote. It’s also unclear if the Republican-led House would approve whatever emerges from the Senate.
“我们迟早得处理这个问题。过去，协调程序——最近一次是去年夏天——一直是一个载体，”图恩说。“但我们目前对此没有任何宣布。……我们将继续跟踪事态发展，看看能实现什么。”
Republican lawmakers have eyed measures to include in another budget reconciliation package, which can be passed with a simple majority. These include more funding for the military and aid to farmers hurt by skyrocketing energy costs as well as new anti-fraud proposals on federal health care spending. Thune said the debt ceiling is also under consideration.
许多资深民主党人公开支持取消债务上限，并强烈批评共和党议员此前试图将其作为争取政策让步的筹码。但民主党人几乎肯定会投票反对一项跛脚鸭时期的增额法案，特别是如果其中包含其他共和党优先事项的话。
“We’ve got to deal with that at some point. In the past, reconciliation, as recently as last summer, has been a vehicle,” Thune said. “But we don’t have anything to announce on that. … We’re continuing to track and see what is achievable.”Many senior Democrats have publicly supported eliminating the debt limit and have strongly criticized prior attempts by Republican lawmakers to use it as a point of leverage for policy concessions. But Democrats would almost certainly vote against a lame-duck bill to increase it, especially if other GOP priorities are included.
一名共和党参议员在匿名发言时表示，提高债务上限很可能会被纳入今年晚些时候通过的任何一揽子方案，并指出总统支持彻底取消债务上限。参议员迈克·朗兹（共和党，南达科他州）周三也表示，他预计提高债务上限会被纳入“日后某项政策成果的一部分”。
One GOP senator, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said that increasing the debt limit would likely be included in any package passed later this year, noting that the president supports eliminating the debt limit altogether. Sen. Mike Rounds (R-South Dakota) also said Wednesday that he expects raising the debt ceiling to be included as “part of one of the products someplace along the line.”
这些计划或许很难在共和党于参众两院均仅握微弱多数的情况下获得通过。众议院自由核心小组政策主席、众议员奇普·罗伊（共和党，得克萨斯州）告诉《华盛顿太阳报》，除非“真正大幅削减支出”，否则他不会支持提高债务上限。但曾任无党派国会预算办公室主任的共和党政策顾问道格拉斯·霍尔茨-埃金表示，如果民主党赢得众议院或参议院，共和党参议员就不应将处理债务上限的问题拖到明年。
These plans may be difficult to get through the party’s narrow House and Senate majorities. Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), policy chair of the House Freedom Caucus, told The Washington Sun that he would not support an increase in the debt limit “without real and substantial spending reductions.”But Douglas Holtz-Eakin, a GOP policy adviser who served as the director of the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, said Senate Republicans should not let the debt ceiling go unaddressed until next year if Democrats win the House or Senate.
“如果民主党掌权，他们就会为解除债务上限付出‘非常高’的代价，”现任保守派智库美国行动论坛主席霍尔茨-埃金说。“他们可以任由这件事在特朗普任内无法实现。……你们可以降低特朗普为促成此事可能不得不付出的代价。”约翰逊在一次采访中表示，如果提高债务上限与大额支出削减配套，他对此表示支持。
If Democrats assume power, they will put a “really high” price on lifting the debt limit, said Holtz-Eakin, who is currently the president of American Action Forum, a conservative think tank. “They can have it not happen under Trump’s watch. … You can reduce the price Trump might have to pay to get it done.”In an interview, Johnson expressed support for raising the debt limit if paired with substantial spending cuts.
“如果赤字削减力度足够，如果我们能真正处理欺诈问题，”约翰逊说，并认为共和党可以将每年2500亿美元的欺诈金额作为治理目标。“如果非和民主党达成协议，我们不会从中得到任何东西，只会换来更多支出。”
“If there’s enough deficit reduction, if we can really address the fraud,” Johnson said, arguing the party could target $250 billion a year in fraud. “If you have to do a deal with Democrats we’ll get nothing for it, just more spending.”