根据福克斯新闻的最新民意调查，密歇根州的选民对美国参议院选举中的两位候选人都持怀疑态度，这导致选情异常胶着。
Michigan voters have concerns about both candidates in the U.S. Senate race and that leads to a tight contest, according to a new Fox News poll.
在密歇根州的潜在选民中，民主党候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德（Abdul El-Sayed）以1%的微弱优势领先共和党候选人迈克·罗杰斯（Mike Rogers），支持率为50%对49%。这项于周三发布的民意调查是福克斯新闻本季首次针对潜在选民进行的调查，因此无法与之前的民意调查直接进行比较。
Democrat Abdul El-Sayed has a slim 1-point edge against Republican Mike Rogers, 50-49%, among Michigan likely voters. The survey, released on Wednesday, is the first Fox News Poll this season among likely voters, so a direct comparison can’t be made to previous polls.
然而，在全体选民中，两者的支持率几乎相同：埃尔-赛义德的支持率为51%，罗杰斯为48%。这一情况与8月份的情况形成了反差——当时罗杰斯在全体选民中的支持率领先4个百分点（51%对47%）。
Yet amonged voters, the preference is almost identical, 51% El-Sayed vs. 48% Rogers. That’s a reversal since August, when Rogers was ahead by 4 points amonged voters, 51% to El-Sayed’s 47%.
福克斯新闻民意调查：选民质疑人工智能的潜力是否大于其风险以下分析仅针对潜在选民（除非另有说明）。
FOX NEWS POLL: VOTERS QUESTION WHETHER AI’S PROMISE OUTWEIGHS ITS RISKS The analysis below is among likely voters, unless otherwise noted.
与罗杰斯的支持者相比，埃尔-赛义德的支持者中对自己的选择更为确信（87%对80%）。总体而言，有15%的选民表示在投票前可能会改变自己的选择，其中罗杰斯的支持者中有18%，埃尔-赛义德的支持者中有12%。
More of El-Sayed’s backers feel certain of their choice (87%) than Rogers’ (80%). Overall, 15% say they could switch their pick before voting, including 18% of Rogers’ supporters and 12% of El-Sayed’s.
福克斯新闻民意调查：受成本压力困扰的选民转向民主党选情胶着的另一个原因是：大约相同比例的密歇根州选民认为罗杰斯与唐纳德·特朗普总统的关系过于密切（39%），同时也认为埃尔-赛义德的观点过于激进/自由派（36%）。
FOX NEWS POLL: SQUEEZED BY COSTS, FRUSTRATED VOTERS TURN TO THE DEMOCRATS Here’s why the race is tight. Roughly equal numbers of Michiganders say they are extremely concerned Rogers is too close to President Donald Trump (39%) as say El-Sayed’s views are too liberal (36%).
选民对两位候选人的评价也相当接近：47%的选民对埃尔-赛义德持积极看法，而对罗杰斯的积极评价为44%。在潜在选民中，对埃尔-赛义德的积极评价较8月份上升了5个百分点，而对罗杰斯的积极评价则下降了4个百分点。
And their favorable ratings are also close: 47% view El-Sayed positively compared to 44% for Rogers. Amonged voters, positive views of El-Sayed increased by 5 points since August while Rogers’ declined by four points.
埃尔-赛义德的主要支持群体包括传统上支持民主党的选民（女性、黑人选民以及拥有大学学位的选民）；在45岁以下的选民以及少数工会家庭中，他的支持率也更高。
El-Sayed’s best groups include those who traditionally go Democratic: women, Black voters and those with a college degree. He’s also ahead with voters under age 45 and the small subgroup of union households.
而罗杰斯的主要支持群体包括男性选民、农村选民、白人福音派基督徒、已婚选民以及没有大学学位的白人选民。
The groups giving Rogers some of his strongest support include men, rural voters White evangelical Christians, married voters and Whites without a college degree.
两位候选人均获得本党近乎一致的支持。罗杰斯在共和党人中获得95%支持，而埃尔-赛义德在民主党人中获得93%支持。此外，罗杰斯获得99%的“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）共和党人和88%的非MAGA共和党人支持，而埃尔-赛义德获得98%的美国民主社会主义者（DSA）民主党人和90%的非DSA民主党人支持。少数独立倾向选民略微倾向埃尔-赛义德。
Both candidates receive near-universal backing from their party. Rogers receives 95% among Republicans, while it’s 93% for El-Sayed among Democrats. In addition, Rogers gets 99% of MAGA Republicans and 88% of non-MAGA Republicans, while El-Sayed garners 98% of DSA Democrats and 90% of non-DSA Democrats. The small number of independents narrowly favor El-Sayed.
今年的政治格局有利于埃尔-赛义德。当选民被问及希望哪个党控制参议院时，民主党以52%对47%领先5个百分点。但要利用这一优势，他在激烈的初选后需要巩固民主党支持，因为11%支持其初选对手海利·史蒂文斯的潜在选民表示计划投票给罗杰斯。
This year’s political landscape favors El-Sayed. The Democrats hold a 5-point advantage when voters are asked which party they want to control the Senate, 52% to 47%. But to capitalize on that, he’ll need to consolidate Democratic support after a contentious primary because 11% of likely voters who backed his primary opponent Haley Stevens say they plan to vote for Rogers.
“密歇根州参议院竞选的独特之处在于，有利于民主党的短期政治力量在一定程度上被对民主党候选人的担忧所抵消，”共和党民调专家达伦·肖表示，他与民主党人克里斯·安德森共同进行福克斯新闻民调。
CLICK HERE FOR CROSSTABS TOPLINE "The Michigan Senate race is unique in that short-term political forces favoring the Democrats are somewhat offset by concerns about the Democratic candidate," says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts the Fox News Poll with Democrat Chris Anderson.
“罗杰斯的坏消息是，埃尔-赛义德在巩固民主党支持方面取得了进展，且考虑到选民对经济的担忧，他仍有增长空间。”十分之四的密歇根州选民表示经济状况正在落后，他们以25个百分点的优势支持埃尔-赛义德。但最大比例近半数选民称家庭经济状况保持稳定，他们以13个百分点优势支持罗杰斯，而少数经济状况好转的选民以36个百分点优势支持罗杰斯。
"The bad news for Rogers is El-Sayed has made progress shoring up Democratic support and has room to grow given voter concerns about the economy." Four in ten Michiganders say they are falling behind financially, and they back El-Sayed by 25 points. But the largest share, nearly half, describe their family as holding steady, and they favor Rogers by 13 points, while the small number who are getting ahead prefer Rogers by 36 points.
尽管如此，十分之七的选民表示生活成本将对其参议院投票极其重要，他们以13个百分点优势支持埃尔-赛义德。他在关注美国对以色列政策的十分之四选民中领先8个百分点，在关注人工智能技术的十分之四选民中领先17个百分点。相反，罗杰斯在44%关注移民问题的选民中以26个百分点优势领先。
Still, for 7 in 10 voters, the cost of living will be extremely important to their Senate vote, and they back El-Sayed by 13 points. He also has advantages among the 4 in 10 focused on U.S. policy toward Israel (+8 points) and AI technology (+17 points). Conversely, Rogers is favored by 26 points among the 44% focused on immigration.
一半密歇根州选民认为特朗普对其参议院投票极其重要，他们以22个百分点优势支持埃尔-赛义德。
Half of Michigan voters consider Trump extremely important to their Senate vote, and they favor El-Sayed by 22 points.
2024年，特朗普在密歇根州以不到两个百分点的优势获胜，而罗杰斯以不到半个百分点的劣势败给了民主党人埃莉莎·斯洛特金。
In 2024, Trump won Michigan by less than two percentage points, while Rogers lost to Democrat Elissa Slotkin by less than half a point.
选民对政府的不满拖累了罗杰斯，近六成选民不认可总统的表现。虽然40%的人表示认可，但并非所有人都支持罗杰斯（93%）。总体而言，他仍具竞争力，获得了19%不认可特朗普者的支持，尽管28%仅“某种程度上”不认可特朗普的人更倾向于埃尔-赛义德。
Voter frustration with the administration is a drag on Rogers, as nearly 6 in 10 disapprove of the president’s performance. While 40% approve, not all support Rogers (93%). He remains competitive with support from 19% of Trump disapprovers overall, even as 28% who only "somewhat" disapprove of Trump prefer El-Sayed.
在接替任期届满的民主党州长格雷琴·惠特默的州长竞选中，民主党人乔斯林·本森在可能投票者中以54%对45%领先共和党人约翰·詹姆斯。在参议院竞选中支持罗杰斯的人有12%跨党派支持本森。
In the gubernatorial race to replace term-limited Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Democrat Jocelyn Benson leads Republican John James 54% to 45% among likely voters. Twelve percent of those backing Rogers in the Senate race cross-party lines to favor Benson.
该福克斯新闻民调于2026年9月24日至28日在灯塔研究（民主党）和肖公司研究（共和党）的联合指导下进行，包括对从全州选民档案中随机抽取的1,203名密歇根州注册选民的访谈。受访者通过固定电话（114人）和手机（794人）与现场访谈员交谈，或在收到短信后在线完成调查（295人）。基于注册选民样本的结果抽样误差为±2.5个百分点，而1,028名可能投票者的子样本误差为±3个百分点。
Conducted September 24-28, 2026, under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with a sample of 1,203 Michiganed voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (114) and cellphones (794) or completed the survey online after receiving a text message (295). Results based on theed voter sample have a margin of sampling error of ±2.5 percentage points and for the subsample of 1,028 likely voters it is ±3 percentage points.
子群体结果的抽样误差更高。除了抽样误差外，问题措辞和顺序也可能影响结果。制定权重目标的来源包括最近的美国社区调查、福克斯新闻选民分析和选民档案数据。权重通常应用于年龄、种族、教育和地区变量，以确保受访者的人口统计特征具有代表性。可能投票者基于概率统计模型确定，该模型依赖过往投票记录、对当前选举的关注度、投票意向、年龄、教育、种族、族裔和婚姻状况。
Sampling error for results among subgroups is higher. In addition to sampling error, question wording and order can influence results. Sources for developing weight targets include the most recent American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis and voter file data. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education and area variables to ensure the demographics of respondents are representative of theed voter population. Likely voters are based on a probabilistic statistical model that relies on past vote history, interest in the current election, intention to vote, age, education, race, ethnicity and marital status.
只有当样本量至少达到N=100时，才会显示子群体结果。福克斯新闻台的维多利亚·巴拉拉为本报道做出了贡献。
Results among subgroups are only shown when the sample size is at least N=100. Fox News’ Victoria Balara contributed to this report.