澳洲储备银行表示，面对利率上升和房价暴跌的双重风暴，家庭完全有能力安然度过，但同时警告称，澳大利亚无法在突发全球人工智能投资泡沫破裂时独善其身。
The Reserve Bank says households are well placed to weather the twin storm of rising interest rates and plunging property prices, but warned that Australia would not be immune from sudden collapse of the global AI investment boom.
央行发布的最新金融稳定评估报告（这是一项对金融系统进行的半年期评估）指出，“全球金融稳定性面临的威胁仍在不断增加”。
The central bank’s latest financial stability review – a biannual assessment of the financial system – said the “threats to global financial stability continue to mount”.
在此警告发出之际，澳洲储备银行估算，尽管今年的房价跌幅扩大，但房贷余额超过房屋价值的借款人比例仍不到百分之一。
The warning comes as Reserve Bank estimated that fewer than one in 100 borrowers owe more on their home than its worth, despite this year’s broadening price falls.
报告称：“尽管部分家庭继续面临困难，但在强劲的劳动力市场以及借款人储蓄和资产缓冲的支撑下，目前陷入严重财务困境或出现贷款逾期的按揭贷款人估计比例仍然很低。”
“While some households continue to experience hardship, the estimated share of mortgagors in severe financial stress or in arrears has, so far, remained low, supported by the strong labour market and mortgagors’ savings and equity buffers,” the report said.
澳洲储备银行关于“负资产”借款人比例低于1%的估算附带了一个前提：那些贷款额接近房产价值的近期购房者，现在更有可能陷入房贷高于房屋市场价值的境地。
The RBA’s estimate that fewer than 1% of borrowers were in “negative equity” came with the caveat: recent buyers who took out loans worth close to the value of the property were more likely to now be in the position where the mortgage was higher than their home’s market value.
澳洲储备银行表示，这其中也包括利用政府5%首付住房担保计划（home guarantee scheme）的购房者，不过有迹象表明，这些借款人出现还款逾期的比例依然“可控”。
This included those who took advantage of the government’s 5% home guarantee scheme, the RBA said, although evidence suggested that the share of these borrowers falling behind on their payments remained “contained”.
澳洲储备银行估计，即使房价暴跌20%，也只会导致大约5%的房贷陷入负资产——这证明了大多数业主在过去几年中享受到了显著的资产增值。
The RBA estimated that even a 20% property price crash would only push around 5% of mortgages into negative equity - a testament to the fact most homeowners have enjoyed significant value gains over the years.
报告称：“如果借款人仍然有能力偿还贷款，仅凭负资产并不足以引发违约，绝大多数此类家庭目前仍然具备偿债能力。”
“Negative equity is insufficient to trigger default if borrowers remain able to service their loans, which remains the case for the vast majority of these households,” the report said.
澳洲储备银行表示，对人工智能热潮失去信心可能会引发“无序的资产价格修正”，而且澳大利亚“不太可能对”由此产生的影响“免疫”。
The RBA said that a loss of faith in the artificial intelligence boom could trigger “disorderly asset price corrections” and that “Australia is unlikely to be immune” from the impact.
除了对人工智能的巨额投资外，中东和乌克兰的两场持续冲突，以及“大国间战略竞争加剧”，凸显了这些威胁，澳洲储备银行（RBA）表示。全球企业债务和股市的高估值意味着它们容易遭遇“无序”回调。
Alongside the huge sums being invested in artificial intelligence, two ongoing conflicts - in the Middle East and Ukraine - alongside “intensifying strategic competition among major powers” underscored these threats, the RBA said. High valuations in global corporate debt and sharemarkets meant they were vulnerable to a “disorderly” correction.
报告称：“一个可能的触发因素可能是市场对人工智能投资热潮情绪的转变，而这一热潮越来越多地由对持续快速盈利增长的预期，以及一个日益不透明且循环往复的债务融资周期所推动。”
“One possible trigger could be a shift in sentiment towards the AI investment boom, which is increasingly fuelled by expectations of sustained rapid earnings growth and a debt-financing cycle that is becoming more opaque and circular,” the report said.
澳洲储备银行还警告了网络攻击风险上升（可能由人工智能助长）以及全球债券市场突然抛售的风险。“这些外部因素是对澳大利亚金融稳定最显著的威胁。”
The RBA also warned of the rising risk of cyber attacks, potentially facilitated by AI, and a sudden sell-off in global bond markets. “These external factors are the most prominent threats to financial stability in Australia.”