存储芯片制造商美光警告，RAM短缺将持续到2028年，甚至可能更久。公司2026财年业绩电话会上，CEO兼公司董事长桑杰·梅赫罗特拉提醒投资者，美光已经售出了明年将生产的大部分内存，并表示客户支付的价格将比今年“高得多”。他说：“在2027年和2028年，我们看到需求都将超过供应。”“事实上，相比2026年，我们预计2027年和2028年行业供应将更加紧张。总体而言，供需环境只会越来越紧张。”
Memory-maker Micron has warned that RAM shortages will persist into 2028, and perhaps beyond. Speaking on the company’s FY 2026 earnings call, CEO and company chair Sanjay Mehrotra reminded investors that Micron has already sold most of the memory it will make next year and said customers will pay “much higher prices” than they shelled out this year. “In calendar 2027 as well as 2028, we see demand exceeding supply,” he added. “In fact, we see greater tightness in the industry in 2027 and in 2028 versus 2026. Overall, supply-demand environment is only getting tighter.”
“我们无法预见供需何时恢复平衡。”美光计划在2028年让新工厂投产——这得益于其新财年上半年计划投入250亿美元资本支出——但高管警告，这些设施不会立即改善供应或缓解价格压力。CEO表示，AI硬件所需的高带宽内存（HBM）需求增长速度快于服务器所用DRAM的需求。美光还在寻找扩大HBM利润率的办法，目前HBM的盈利能力不及DRAM。
“We do not have line of sight to when supply and demand will return to balance.”Micron plans to bring new factories online in 2028 – helped by planned capex of $25 billion in the first half of its new financial year – but execs warned those facilities won’t immediately help to improve availability or ease prices. The CEO said demand for the high-bandwidth memory (HBM) needed in AI hardware is growing faster than it is for the DRAM used in servers. Micron is also finding ways to expand its margins for HBM, which is currently not as profitable as DRAM.
不过，这两类内存的利润都极其丰厚。美光的业绩公告显示，专注HBM的云内存业务部门第四季度毛利率为83%，较去年第四季度的59%大幅跃升。销售更多DRAM的核心数据中心业务部门第四季度毛利率为90%，高于去年第四季度的41%。用于数据中心的固态硬盘销售额当季接近100亿美元，同比增幅超过1000%。第四季度营收为542.5亿美元，高于去年的113亿美元。全年营收达到1332亿美元，远高于去年的374亿美元。净利润增长895%，达到850亿美元。
Both types of memory are, however, enormously profitable. Micron’s earnings announcement reveals that the gross margin for its cloud memory business unit, which focuses on HBM, reported a Q4 gross margin of 83 percent – a big jump from the 59 percent in last year’s Q4. The core datacenter business unit, which sells more DRAM, recorded Q4 gross margin of 90 percent, up from 41 percent last year. Sales of solid-state disks for use in datacenters reached almost $10 billion for the quarter, up more than 1,000 percent year over year. Q4 revenue came in at $54.25 billion, up from $11.3 billion last year. Annual revenue landed at $133.2 billion, vastly higher than last year’s $37.4 billion. Net income rose 895 percent to $85 billion.
梅赫罗特拉告诉投资者，美光“拥有一条面向未来HBM产品的清晰路线图，并且很荣幸正与英伟达合作开发业界首个定制HBM4E解决方案NV-HBM，该方案将用于下一代GPU和NVLink融合平台。在NAND领域，用于卸载KV缓存的AI上下文内存存储，以及替代HDD的机会，正在扩大SSD的可寻址市场。”美光预计2027财年第一季度营收为615亿美元，上下浮动15亿美元，毛利率为86.25%。公司股价在盘后交易中一度飙升，随后又回到当日收盘价，表明投资者此前已预期其将实现大幅增长并获得可观利润。®
Mehrotra told investors Micron has “a strong roadmap for future HBM products and are proud to be working with NVIDIA on the industry’s first custom HBM4E implementation, NV-HBM, to be adopted on next generation of GPUs and NVLink fusion platforms. In NAND, AI context memory storage used for KV cache offload and HDD displacement opportunities are expanding the addressable market for SSDs.”Micron forecast Q1 FY27 revenue of $61.5 billion plus or minus $1.5 billion, and gross margin of 86.25 percent. The company’s share price spiked, then returned to its close-of-day price in after-hours trading, suggesting investors expected its colossal growth and profit. ®