首尔——周四,韩国举行了年度国军日纪念活动,然而上个月因地雷爆炸导致三名士兵受伤一事引发的朝韩对峙,给此次活动蒙上了一层阴影。
SEOUL -- South Korea marked its annual Armed Forces Day on Thursday with a ceremony overshadowed by a standoff with North Korea over a mine explosion that injured three soldiers last month.
在9月21日朝韩非军事区发生地雷爆炸事件后,紧张局势随之加剧。调查结论显示,该爆炸装置是由朝鲜人员放置的。
Tensions rose after a mine detonated on Sept. 21 in the Demilitarized Zone that separates North and South Korea. Investigations have concluded that the explosive device was placed there by North Korean personnel.
周三,联合国军司令部宣布,其与韩国当局对非军事区爆炸事件进行的现场检查显示,在缓冲区韩国一侧发现了一枚处于激活状态的朝鲜反步兵地雷。联合国军司令部表示,朝鲜违反了双方之间的《停战协定》。
On Wednesday, the United Nations Command announced that on-site checks, conducted along with South Korean authorities, into the explosion in the DMZ turned up an active North Korean antipersonnel mine on the South Korean side of the buffer zone. The UNC said that North Korea had violated the Armistice Agreement between the two sides.
韩国联合参谋本部于同日举行了公开简报会,期间一名官员强烈要求朝鲜对地雷爆炸事件承担责任并道歉。周二,国防部长姜信哲表示,地雷是朝鲜埋设在非军事区的,并未从其他地点移位。姜信哲还表示,韩国将采取未明确说明的“相应措施”。朝鲜最高领导人金正恩权势强大的妹妹金与正坚决否认朝鲜是地雷爆炸的幕后黑手。她在周三通过国家媒体发表的声明中指责韩国“捏造毫无根据的结果”,以此作为对朝进行侵略的借口。9月16日从朝韩边境韩国一侧拍摄的一个朝鲜村庄。
South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff held a public briefing on the same day, during which an official strongly called on North Korea to take responsibility for the mine explosion and apologize. On Tuesday, Defense Minister Kang Shin-chul said that North Korea had buried the mine in the DMZ, and that it had not been displaced from another location. Kang said that his country would take unspecified "corresponding measures." Kim Yo Jong, the powerful sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, vehemently denied that North Korea was behind the mine explosion. In a state media missive on Wednesday, she accused the South of "concocting baseless results" to be used as a pretext for aggression targeting the North. A North Korean village photographed from the South Korean side of the inter-Korean border on Sept. 16.
韩国左翼总统李在明目前面临着艰难的平衡:一方面,他希望表现出对这个拥有核武器的邻国所带来的危险的严重关切;另一方面,他又要为恢复与朝鲜的对话敞开大门,这长期以来一直是他的夙愿。
Lee Jae Myung, South Korea's left-leaning president, now faces a difficult balance, in that he will wish to appear both serious about the danger posed by his nuclear-armed neighbor while also leaving the door open to a resumption of dialogue with the North, a long-held ambition of his.
他主张对朝鲜采取温和的态度,认为只有通过对话与合作,朝鲜半岛上的两国才能解决自20世纪50年代初朝鲜战争以来一直存在的对抗局势。上个月在接受《纽约时报》采访时,李明博呼吁美国考虑放宽对朝鲜的制裁,以换取平壤方面停止其武器研发计划的承诺。
He favors a dovish approach to North Korea, contending that only through dialogue and cooperation can the two Koreas solve their confrontation that dates back to the Korean War of the early 1950s. In an interview with the New York Times last month, Lee called for the U.S. to consider easing sanctions on North Korea in exchange for a promise from Pyongyang to halt developments of its weapons programs.
这一立场使他遭到保守派反对派的指责:他们认为他对朝鲜过于软弱,且由于未能保持高度的军事警惕性,从而加剧了韩国的国家安全风险。
That position has opened up Lee to accusations from the conservative opposition that he is soft on the North and has worsened the risks to South Korea's national security by failing to maintain strict military vigilance.
然而,在周四的建军节纪念仪式上,李明博提到了韩国日益增长的国防生产能力,特别提到了周三试射的那艘被他称为“最先进的宙斯盾驱逐舰”的军舰,并强调该舰“完全采用韩国自主研发的技术制造”。他还重申了韩国的承诺:到2030年代中期,韩国将“成功研制出国产核动力潜艇”。Sejong研究所朝鲜半岛战略中心的分析师彼得·沃德表示,李明博的立场可以在强硬与愿意对话之间找到平衡。
But his address at the Armed Forces Day ceremony on Thursday contained mentions of South Korea's growing defense production capabilities, including the launch on Wednesday of what he called a "state-of-the-art Aegis destroyer" that he stressed was "built with our own technology." He also reiterated a vow that his country will by the mid-2030s have "successfully built nuclear-powered submarines using homegrown technology." There is a path for Lee to appear both tough and open to dialogue, said Peter Ward, an analyst at the Sejong Institute's Center for Korean Peninsula Strategy.
“他可以向朝鲜传递一个明确的信息:无论出于何种原因,侵犯非军事区的行为都是不可接受的;韩国将采取措施加强边境管控,并提升实时监控能力。”沃德对《Nikkei Asia》杂志说道。
Lee "can send a message to North Korea that violating the DMZ, even in error, is not acceptable. [South Korea] can take measures to make sure the border is better marked and that there is better real-time surveillance," Ward told Nikkei Asia.
沃德指出,朝鲜半岛的边界在许多地方并没有明确的划分;同时,也有可能性是朝鲜军方在那些爆炸事件发生的地点设置了地雷——这并非出于故意挑衅,而是因为他们误以为那些地雷位于自己的领土范围内。
The inter-Korean border is not clearly delineated in many places, and there is also the possibility that the North Korean military did place the mines in the location where they exploded, not as a deliberate provocation but because they believed they were on their own side, Ward said.
李在典礼上还称非军事区地雷爆炸是一起“不幸的事故”,并表示:“每当想到最近受伤的军人,我的心情依然沉重。”但他并未就爆炸指责朝鲜,并表示:“希望朝方在经历了漫长的中断后,现在能与我们一同走上恢复信任和重启对话的道路。”国际危机组织朝鲜半岛高级顾问克里斯·格林(Chris Green)表示,由于有证据表明地雷是朝鲜蓄意埋设的,而平壤方面对该事件仍保留“合理否认”的空间,因此围绕此次爆炸与朝鲜的对峙将很难解决。
Also at the ceremony, Lee called the DMZ mine explosion "an unfortunate accident" and said, "My heart remains heavy when I think of the service members who were recently injured." But he did not blame North Korea for the explosion and said, "I hope that the North joins us now on the path of restoring trust and resuming dialogue, following a long interruption." The standoff with North Korea over the explosion will be difficult to resolve, as there is evidence to suggest that the mine was placed there deliberately by North Korea and Pyongyang nevertheless retains "plausible deniability" over the incident, according to Chris Green, a senior consultant on the Korean Peninsula for the International Crisis Group.
欧洲朝鲜问题研究中心非常驻研究员、独立安全、外交与战略分析平台“半岛快讯”(Peninsula Dispatch)创始人加布里埃拉·伯纳尔(Gabriela Bernal)表示,此外,平壤和首尔之间缺乏活跃的对话渠道将使事情进一步复杂化,并增加边境地区的误解演变成某种形式冲突的风险。
Also, the lack of an active channel of dialogue between Pyongyang and Seoul will complicate matters further and raise the risk that miscommunication along the border could flare up into some form of conflict, said Gabriela Bernal, a nonresident fellow at the European Centre for North Korean Studies and founder of Peninsula Dispatch, an independent security, diplomacy and strategy analysis platform.
伯纳尔对《日经亚洲》表示:“沟通越少,此类事件迅速升级的可能性就越大,因为如果双方甚至连对话都没有,误解就在所难免。”
"The less communication, the more likely such incidents could escalate quickly, since misunderstandings are inevitable if the two sides aren't even speaking to each other," Bernal told Nikkei Asia.