根据 Hallie Gu 和 Eleanor Thornber 的报道，由于黑海地区局势紧张以及极端天气的影响，全球农产品价格出现了自 2022 年初俄罗斯入侵乌克兰以来的最大季度涨幅，这对各国中央银行的通胀目标构成了潜在挑战。
By Hallie Gu and Eleanor Thornber Global agriculture prices notched their biggest quarterly jump since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 on fresh tensions in the Black Sea region and extreme weather, in a potential headwind for central bank inflation targets.
彭博农业现货指数（Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index）追踪了包括大豆、咖啡在内的 10 种主要农产品的价格，该指数在截至 9 月的三个月内上涨了 13%，涨幅为 2022 年 3 月以来最大。
The Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index, which tracks 10 key crops from soybeans to coffee, jumped 13% in the three months through September, the most since March 2022.
近几个月来，俄罗斯和乌克兰之间的战斗加剧，导致从黑海地区输出的农产品数量大幅减少。黑海地区是全球重要的谷物和油籽供应地，供应量的减少迫使亚洲和非洲的进口国开始寻找替代品。极端天气也对农业生产造成了严重影响，美国和欧洲等主要种植区的小麦和玉米产量受到了冲击。
Intensifying fighting between Russia and Ukraine in recent months has choked crop flows from the Black Sea, a key global supplier of grains and oilseeds, tightening supplies and prompting import-dependent buyers in Asia and Africa to seek alternatives. Extreme weather has added to concerns, disrupting wheat and corn production in key growing regions from the US to Europe.
全球谷物价格还受益于中国持续购买美国大豆的行为，以及人们对两国领导人峰会前景的乐观预期。峰会后，双方宣布北京将降低对包括小麦和玉米在内的美国农产品的关税，但会继续对美国大豆征收额外关税。
Global grain prices were also supported by continued Chinese purchases of US soybeans and optimism over bilateral trade ahead of the key summit between the countries’ leaders late last month. Following the meeting, the two sides announced that Beijing would cut tariffs on US crops including wheat and corn as part of a broader deal, while keeping additional duties on American soybeans.
供应中断与贸易格局的变化令全球买家保持警惕，他们密切关注俄罗斯和乌克兰的和平谈判进展以及中国进一步的采购动向。然而，只有中国需求的持续增长，才能真正将这种乐观情绪转化为强劲的谷物市场表现。
The combination of supply disruptions and shifting trade flows is keeping global buyers on alert, with attention focused on any Russia-Ukraine peace talk prospects and more Chinese purchases. A sustained pickup in Chinese demand will be needed, however, to keep that optimism translating into stronger grain markets.
在天气方面，日益强化的厄尔尼诺现象（El Niño）继续威胁着全球各地的农业生产，尤其是棕榈油和可可等作物的产量。印度刚刚经历了十年来最弱的季风季节，这不仅影响了农作物收成，还加剧了食品价格的风险。
On the weather front, a strengthening El Niño — on track to be one of the strongest ever — continues to threaten agriculture production across regions, crimping forecasts for crops including palm oil and cocoa. India just capped its weakest monsoon season in a decade, threatening harvests and raising food-price risks.
美国农业部周三发布最新报告后，美国供应前景充裕，这抑制了部分看涨情绪。芝加哥谷物价格周三暴跌，随后收窄部分跌幅。
An ample outlook for US supply, after the Department of Agriculture released its latest report on Wednesday, has tempered some of the bullish sentiment. Chicago grains prices plunged on Wednesday before paring some losses.
过去一个季度，芝加哥玉米和小麦均上涨15%。大豆上涨13%。
In the past quarter, corn and wheat in Chicago both climbed 15%. Soybeans gained 13%.