日本央行最新的短观调查显示,商业景气指数再次回升。尽管面临石油供应中断、日元疲软以及更深层次的结构性压力,这一乐观的读数依然出炉。
The Bank of Japan's latest tankan survey showed business sentiment improving again. The upbeat reading came despite oil disruption, a weak yen and deeper structural strains.
日本央行在其季度短观调查中对经济作出了积极评估,大型制造商的景气指数从22升至24。这项备受关注的调查还显示,大型非制造商的景气指数从37降至35,而主要的商业景气指标则连续第六个季度出现改善。
The Bank of Japan has given a positive assessment of the economy in its quarterly tankan survey, with sentiment among large manufacturers rising to 24 from 22. The closely watched survey also showed sentiment among large non-manufacturers slipping to 35 from 37, while the main business sentiment indicator improved for the sixth straight quarter.
最新数据的出炉正值日本面临重大压力之际,其中包括油价上涨、日元疲软以及进口成本上升。为了在经历多年近零利率或负利率后使货币政策正常化,日本央行今年已在6月和9月两次上调基准利率至1.25%,达到三十年来的最高水平。
The latest reading comes even as Japan faces major pressures, including higher oil prices, a weak yen and rising import costs. The central bank has raised its benchmark interest rate twice this year, in June and September, taking it to 1.25 per cent, its highest level in three decades, as it tries to normalise monetary policy after years of near-zero or negative rates.
该调查通过计算预期情况良好的企业数量与持悲观态度的企业数量之差来衡量景气状况。其最新调查结果被广泛视为衡量日本经济健康状况的重要指标。
The survey measures the number of companies expecting good conditions against those feeling pessimistic. Its latest findings are widely seen as an important indicator of the health of Japan's economy.
尽管受到油价飙升的影响,这一积极的读数依然实现。伊朗战争实际上关闭了霍尔木兹海峡,资源贫乏的日本此前通过该海峡进口了大部分石油。布伦特原油目前的交易价格约为每桶98美元,低于早些时候近120美元的高位,但仍高于战前每桶70美元以下的水平。
The positive reading has come despite the impact of soaring oil prices. The war in Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which resource-poor Japan had earlier received most of its oil imports. Brent crude is now trading at about USD 98 a barrel, down from nearly USD 120 earlier, but still above pre-war levels of below USD 70 a barrel.
尽管理论上更高的利率会支撑走强的货币,但日元依然相对疲软。美元兑日元交易价格接近160日元,而五年前约为110日元,这进一步加剧了进口价格上涨带来的压力。日本央行表示,日元疲软和物价上涨依然是关键挑战。
Although higher interest rates would in theory support a stronger currency, the yen remains relatively weak. The US dollar has been trading at nearly 160 yen, compared with around 110 yen five years ago, adding to the pressure from rising import prices. The Bank of Japan has said the weak yen and higher prices remain key challenges.
日本也面临着一些长期性的结构性问题,包括人口老龄化、劳动力短缺,以及对未来经济活力的担忧。总体而言,尽管能源成本上升、货币贬值以及人口结构变化带来的压力仍在持续影响经济前景,但《Tankan》调查显示企业信心仍在持续改善。(数据来源:PTI)
Japan is also dealing with longer-term structural problems, including an ageing society, labour shortages and concerns about the economy's vitality in the years ahead. Overall, the tankan survey pointed to continued improvement in business sentiment, even as energy costs, currency weakness and demographic strains continue to weigh on the outlook. With PTI Inputs