据日本央行季度短观调查，日本大型制造业企业的商业景气感受连续第六个季度改善，并升至八年来最高水平。
Business sentiment among large Japanese manufacturers improved for a sixth straight quarter and hit the highest level in eight years, according to the Bank of Japan’s quarterly tankan survey.
短观数据显示，7月至9月大型制造业企业商业景气指数从前一季度的22升至24。
The tankan data shows that the business sentiment index for large manufacturers rose to 24 in the July-September period, compared to 22 in the previous quarter.
该数据未达到市场预期的25，但商业信心指数持续改善，或有助于支持日本央行继续加息。
A market forecast of 25 was missed, but continued improvement in the confidence score could help support the case for the BOJ to keep taking rates higher.
尽管大型制造业企业景气改善，但非制造业企业指数五年来首次下降，由前一季度的37降至35。
While sentiment at big manufacturers improved, the figure for the nonmanufacturing companies declined for the first time in five quarters, to 35 from 37 in the previous quarter.
野村综合研究所首席经济学家木内忠英在周四发布的一份报告中写道：“我认为，制造业与非制造业企业商业景气感受之间的分化，是油价上涨带来的影响。”
“I believe the split in business sentiment between manufacturers and non-manufacturers is due to the impact of higher oil prices,” Takahide Kiuchi, executive economist at Nomura Research Institute, wrote in a report on Thursday.
木内忠英写道，自春季以来，大型制造商在转嫁上涨的石油成本方面取得了一定进展，因而得以保住利润；而非制造商提价的难度则更大。
Since large manufacturers have made reasonable progress in passing on increased oil costs since spring, they have secured profits, Kiuchi wrote, adding that price increases are more difficult for non-manufacturers.
他还指出，人工智能和半导体需求蓬勃发展，预计正在支撑制造业企业的商业景气。
He also noted that booming artificial intelligence and semiconductor demand is believed to be supporting business sentiment at manufacturers.
周四公布的短观调查显示，大型制造商以及中小企业的商业信心均保持稳健。其中，中型企业指数由17升至23，小型企业指数由9升至14。
The tankan survey, which was released Thursday, shows business confidence remained solid not only for large manufacturers, but also at smaller companies, with the index for midsize companies increasing to 23 from 17, and at smaller companies, with the index rising to 14 from 9.
由于通常有超过99%的受访企业正常回复问卷，因此该数据质量极高，能够准确反映实际情况。在最新一期短观调查中，调查于8月26日至9月30日进行，共访问了9104家企业。
As more than 99% of companies polled normally respond to the questionnaire, the data is considered to be of a very high quality and an accurate reflection of the situation on the ground. In the latest tankan, 9,104 companies were polled from Aug. 26 to Sept. 30.
在短观调查中，企业被问及经营状况是“有利”、“不太有利”还是“不利”。“有利”读数意味着回答“有利”的企业多于回答“不利”的企业。9月18日，日本央行将政策利率——无抵押隔夜拆借利率——从1%上调至1.25%，使日本借贷成本达到1995年以来的最高水平。
In the tankan survey, companies are asked whether business conditions are “favorable,” “not so favorable” or “unfavorable.”Positive readings mean those answering “favorable” outnumber companies answering “unfavorable.”The BOJ raised its policy rate — the uncollateralized overnight call rate — on Sept. 18 to 1.25% from 1%, bringing Japan’s borrowing costs to the highest level since 1995.
在9月加息之前，市场预期日本央行将采取更为鹰派的立场，但该央行最终对前景释放了相互矛盾的信号。两票偏向鸽派的反对票，与植田和男行长略显鹰派的言论相抵消。
Prior to the September rate increase, expectations that the BOJ would become more hawkish increased, but the bank ended up offering mixed signals about the outlook. Two dissenting votes suggesting dovishness balanced mildly hawkish remarks from Gov. Kazuo Ueda.
据Totan ICAP的数据，截至周四下午，投资者预计日本央行将在12月加息，概率为82%。日本央行定于10月29日和30日召开为期两天的政策会议，市场预计该次会议加息概率为22%。
The market expects the BOJ to raise rates in December, with investors pricing in an 82% chance as of Thursday afternoon, according to data from Totan ICAP. The central bank is scheduled to hold a two-day policy meeting on Oct. 29 and 30, and the market is pricing in a 22% chance of an increase at that meeting.