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法国经济成为选举焦点之际,法国公共债务状况一览A look at France’s public debt as economy takes center stage in French election

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塞缪尔·彼得尔坎 巴黎——在埃马纽埃尔·马克龙总统任内的两届任期中,法国公共债务攀升至历史新高,令投资者不安,并成为明年总统选举临近之际的一个核心议题。

SAMUEL PETREQUIN PARIS — France’s public debt has climbed to a record during the two terms of President Emmanuel Macron , unsettling investors and emerging as a defining issue ahead of next year’s presidential election.

法国已深陷严重社会紧张局势之际,接替马克龙的候选人面临压力,必须说明将如何遏制债务。法国债务如今已相当于国内生产总值的119%,国家吃紧的财政状况很可能主导整场选举活动。

With France already gripped by deep social tensions , the candidates vying to succeed Macron are under pressure to explain how they would bring the debt under control. It now stands at 119% of gross domestic product, leaving the country’s strained public finances likely to dominate the campaign.

法国总理塞巴斯蒂安·勒科尔尼将于周四公布2027年预算草案。他希望通过削减公共支出,降低法国赤字。这一想法遭到了各政治派别的广泛批评。

Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu, who is to unveil the 2027 draft budget on Thursday, wants his government to reduce the country’s deficit by cutting public spending. That idea has drawn widespread criticism across the political spectrum.

解决债务问题的 一种方案尤其受到审视。激进左翼总统候选人让-吕克·梅朗雄提议取消欧洲中央银行持有的法国政府债券,以释放资金用于公共支出,并声称这将为投资腾出资金。右翼人士则argue称,梅朗雄的提议不切实际;极右翼领导人玛丽娜·勒庞主张进行改革,“清理整顿”公共财政。

One idea to fix the debt has been particularly scrutinized. The radical-left presidential candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon has proposed canceling French government bonds held by the European Central Bank to unlock money for public spending, claiming it would free up funds for investment. Others on the right argue that Melenchon’s proposal is unrealistic, with far-right leader Marine Le Pen calling for reforms to “clean up” public finances.

“冻结这笔债务意味着将其转化为永久债务,也就是没有还款期限、利率很低或为零的债务,”梅朗雄说。“因此,冻结债务实际上等同于将其取消。”欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德表示,梅朗雄的想法将“是对欧盟条约的纯粹违反”,因为该条约禁止央行为本国政府提供融资。

“Freezing this debt means transforming it into perpetual debt — that is, debt with no repayment deadline and a low or zero interest rate,” Melenchon said. “Freezing it is therefore effectively the same as canceling it.”ECB President Christine Lagarde says Melenchon’s idea would be a “pure violation” of the EU treaty, which bans central bank financing of national governments.

拉加德强调,如果法国现在冻结债务,那么下次寻求借款时,债权人可能会提出极其苛刻的条件,甚至干脆拒绝借款。

Lagarde insisted that if the country freezes its debt now, the next time it seeks to borrow, creditors could demand exorbitant terms or flat-out say no.

“无论在法律、技术还是财务层面,一件事即使毫无道理,你反复声称它如此,也并不意味着它就是合理的,”她在9月10日的新闻发布会上说。

“It’s not because you repeat something that doesn’t make any sense -- either legally, technically, or financially -- that it becomes something valid,” she said during a Sept. 10 news conference.

以下梳理了法国公共债务的现状,以及它对欧洲第二大经济体造成的影响。

Here is a look at France’s public debt and how it affects the second-largest economy in Europe.

法国仍是世界主要工业强国,拥有全球第七大经济体。但法国国家统计与经济研究所本周发布的数据显示,截至6月底,法国公共债务达到3.596万亿欧元(4.08万亿美元),相当于国内生产总值的119%。

France remains a major industrial power and has the world’s seventh-largest economy. But at the end of June, its public debt stood at 3.596 trillion euros ($4.08 trillion), equivalent to 119% of GDP, according to figures released this week by France’s National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies.

在新冠疫情暴发之前,2029年该比例仅为国内生产总值的97.9%。

It stood at 97.9% of GDP in 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic.

近年来,法国并非唯一一个不断累积债务的国家。欧盟官方统计机构欧洲统计局的数据显示,截至2026年第一季度末,欧元区广义政府债务总额与国内生产总值之比为88.9%。

France is hardly alone in loading up on debt in recent years. At the end of the first quarter of 2026, the general government gross debt to GDP ratio in the euro area stood at 88.9%, according to data from Eurostat, the official statistical office of the European Union.

法国的债务规模低于希腊和意大利,分别为国内生产总值的143.5%和138.9%,也低于美国的122.6%。然而,法国并不具备美国拥有全球主导储备货币这一优势,而这种货币地位增强了华盛顿的融资能力。

France’s debt pile is smaller than Greece’s, which was 143.5% of GDP, and Italy’s (138.9%). It’s also lower than the U.S.’s 122.6%. France, however, lacks the U.S. advantage of having the world’s dominant reserve currency, which supports Washington’s ability to borrow.

法国每年都会编制预算。预算收入主要来自个人和企业缴纳的税款及各项费用。预算支出用于为教育、司法和治安等公共服务提供资金。过去50年来,法国预算支出一直高于收入,形成预算赤字。为弥补这一缺口并继续为公共服务提供资金,法国会举借贷款。这些贷款的总价值构成公共债务。赤字之所以重要,是因为投资者在向政府提供资金时会要求获得更高的回报。

Every year, France prepares a budget. These resources mainly come from taxes and levies paid by individuals and businesses. Expenditure is the money used to finance public services such as education, the justice system, or policing. For the past 50 years, expenditure has exceeded revenue, resulting in a budget deficit. To finance this gap and continue funding public services, France takes out loans. The total value of these loans constitutes public debt. Deficits matter because investors demand more in return when they lend the government money.

法国上一次实现预算收支平衡是在1973年,当时该国维持着慷慨的福利制度和强有力的劳动者保护。多年来,法国累积的债务一直处于高位——自2008年起超过国内生产总值的90%——但得益于稳定的经济增长以及多年的近零利率,这一水平尚可控制。

France last balanced its budget in 1973, while maintaining a generous welfare state with strong worker protections. For years, accumulated debt was high — over 90% of annual gross domestic product from 2008 on — but manageable due to steady growth and years of near-zero interest rates.

随后是新冠疫情,以及俄罗斯在2022年入侵乌克兰后切断大部分天然气供应所引发的能源危机。法国政府大量支出补贴,以维持企业运营并保护民众免受能源成本上涨的影响。与此同时,全球利率突然大幅上升。法国的债务占国内生产总值(GDP)的比重从疫情前的2019年的98%飙升至2020年的114%。

Then came the pandemic , followed by an energy crisis after Russia cut off most natural gas supplies following its 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The French government spent heavily on subsidies to keep businesses afloat and shield people from higher energy costs. Globally, interest rates suddenly moved higher. Debt in France jumped from 98% of GDP in pre-pandemic year 2019 to 114% in 2020.

随着公共债务的增加,法国政府的支出也随之扩大。债务偿还是支出中的重要组成部分,约占国家预算的7%。鉴于当前利率大幅上升,预计每年的利息成本将达到770亿欧元,这笔资金无法用于学校、养老金或医疗保健等领域的支出。信用评级机构Scope在9月下调了法国的长期评级。

As public debt increases, the French state also increases its expenditure. Debt service is a significant item of expenditure, accounting for around 7% of the state budget. With interest rates much higher these days, interest costs are expected to reach 77 billion euros a year, money that is not available for spending on schools, pensions or healthcare. The credit rating agency Scope downgraded France’s long-term ratings in September.

该机构在9月表示:“财政前景持续恶化,其特征是政府总债务上升、财政赤字持续高企以及结构性改革进展有限,这些因素导致了此次评级下调。”

“A sustained deterioration in the fiscal outlook, characterized by rising general government debt, persistently high fiscal deficits and limited progress on structural reforms drive the downgrade,” the agency said in September.

尽管财政赤字扩大且公共债务上升,惠誉评级在8月表示,维持法国主权信用评级为“A+”,展望稳定。

Despite the widening fiscal deficit and rising public debt, Fitch Ratings in August said it is maintaining France’s sovereign credit rating at “A+” with a stable outlook.

该机构称:“法国庞大的多元化高收入经济体、稳健的银行业以及多元化的投资者基础,支撑了其信用评级。”根据法国经济部的数据,法国债务由多种类型的投资者持有。

“France’s ratings are supported by its large, diversified high-income economy, a sound banking sector and a diverse investor base,” it said. According to France’s economy ministry, French debt is held by a wide variety of investors.

  1. 四分之一由法国投资者持有。
  1. one-quarter by French investors.
  1. 四分之一由法国央行持有,作为欧洲央行货币政策的一部分进行购买。
  1. one-quarter by the Banque de France, purchased as part of the European Central Bank’s monetary policy.
  1. 四分之一由欧元区投资者持有。这些债务由实行基金积累制养老金体系的国家的保险公司、银行、中央银行和养老基金持有。
  1. one-quarter by investors from the euro area. The debt is held by insurers, banks, central banks, and pension funds in countries where retirement is based on funded pension systems.