共和党人深知，唐纳德·特朗普总统的低支持率将在11月给他们带来巨大麻烦。他们也意识到，为了避免在选举中惨败，特朗普可能是他们唯一的选择。
Republicans know President Donald Trump's unpopularity poses a big problem for them in November. They also recognize he may be their only option to avoid a wipeout.
距离选举日还有五周，许多共和党人正陷入进退两难的困境。在一些势均力敌的选区，部分候选人担心与特朗普一同竞选会疏远未定选民，因为特朗普身上背负着诸多负面因素：高油价、选民持续的经济担忧以及旷日持久的伊朗战争。
Five weeks before Election Day, many Republicans are facing a damned-if-they-do, damned-if-they-don’t dilemma. Some candidates in close races are wary of alienating undecided voters by campaigning alongside Trump and the baggage that comes with him: High gas prices, voters’ persistent economic concerns and the prolonged war in Iran.
然而，与总统保持距离可能会让他们更难动员那些投票意愿较低的基本盘选民——而这些选民只有特朗普才能吸引到投票站。
But keeping the president at arm’s length could make it harder to turn out the low-propensity base voters they need — voters that only Trump has been able to bring to the polls.
一位全国性的共和党操盘手在匿名条件下坦率地谈到了当前的局势，就像本文中的其他人一样。他说：“这些人陷入了困境。他们可能不希望特朗普来选区，但特朗普仍然可以做些事情来提供帮助。”
“These guys are in a pickle,” said one national GOP operative granted anonymity to speak candidly about the landscape, like others in this article. “They may not want Trump to come to the district, but there are still things that Trump can do to help.”
当被问及如果特朗普在他们的候选人参选的摇摆州进行竞选活动会发生什么时，另一位负责中期选举的共和党操盘手表示：“我怀疑我的候选人会因此感染新冠。”但候选人可能没有太多选择。在选举的最后冲刺阶段，特朗普正日益介入选举，他加大了竞选行程的力度，计划在多个红州进行多站访问，并反复呼吁选民“假装”他在选票上。最近，他还出现在由纳税人资金资助的竞选风格广告中，而白宫声称这些是公益广告。
Asked what would happen if Trump campaigned in a battleground state where their candidates were running, another GOP operative working on midterm races said: “I suspect my candidates would come down with COVID.”But the candidates may not have much of a choice. Trump is increasingly inserting himself into the election in the closing stretch, ramping up his campaign travel with a slate of stops scheduled in red states, repeatedly imploring voters to “pretend” he’s on the ballot and, most recently, appearing in taxpayer-funded campaign-style ads that the White House has claimed are Public Service Announcements.
据两位直接知情人士透露，一些共和党人已建议特朗普团队不要让总统前往奥马哈的一个偏向民主党的选区，以及其他一些他在大选日前支持率处于低位的关键选区。布林克·哈丁（Brinker Harding）正在竞选奥马哈的席位，该席位原由即将退休的众议员唐·培根（内布拉斯加州共和党人）担任；当被问及他是否会参加特朗普即将在内布拉斯加州格兰德岛举行的集会时，他的竞选团队没有回应，该地距离奥马哈约两小时车程。其他人也表达了类似的看法。
Some Republicans have encouraged Trump’s team not to send the president to a blue-leaning Omaha district and other key districts where his approval rating is underwater ahead of Election Day, according to two people with direct knowledge of the matter. Brinker Harding is running in the Omaha seat being vacated by retiring Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.); his campaign didn’t respond when asked if he’ll attend Trump’s upcoming rally in Grand Island, Nebraska, about a two-hour drive away. Others have said similar things.
一位参与众议院共和党战场选区竞选的共和党高层人士告诉《政治报》（POLITICO）：“他们已经给我打了四次电话，询问我们是否希望他来，我都拒绝了。”该选区是特朗普在2024年轻松获胜的地区。
另一位熟悉共和党中期选举策略的共和党工作人员表示，该党认为其自身以及特朗普的角色主要是推动共和党选民的投票率，而争取温和派、独立选民和其他摇摆选民的工作则更多地落在候选人个人身上。
"They've called me four times now to see if we want him to come, and I've said no," one senior Republican involved in a House GOP battleground race in a district Trump safely won in 2024 told POLITICO. Another Republican operative familiar with Republican midterm strategy said the party views its role — and Trump’s — primarily as driving GOP turnout, while the work of persuading moderates, independents and other swing voters falls more heavily on individual candidates.
“总统去哪里是经过战略性决定的，我们会去那些试图提高共和党选民投票率的地区，”该工作人员说。“我们不会把他派往那些可能会对我们的候选人造成伤害的地区。”其他在竞争日益激烈的红色州的人士承认，如果他们想动员“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）的基本盘以保住关键席位，没有人能像特朗普那样产生号召力。
“Where the president is going is being decided very strategically, to areas where we are trying to boost turnout among Republican voters,” the operative said. “We're not going to be sending him into areas where it would necessarily be hurtful to our candidates.”Others in red states that are increasingly competitive acknowledge that if they want to rally the MAGA base to the degree necessary to hold onto key seats, no one can deliver like Trump.
“总统是共和党的投票机器，”俄亥俄州共和党主席亚历克斯·特里安塔菲卢（Alex Triantafilou）说，他将于周六在俄亥俄州欢迎特朗普的到来。“我当然知道一些全国性民调和专家对此有何看法。但他随时欢迎来到俄亥俄州，因为我们知道他能点燃我们支持者的热情。”并非所有人都认为特朗普即使在那些他轻松获胜的地方也是净加分项。
“He's a turnout machine for the Republican Party, the president is,” said Ohio GOP Chair Alex Triantafilou, who will welcome Trump to his state on Saturday. “I certainly know what some of the national polling and some of the pundits have to say about this. But he is always welcome to Ohio because we know that he fires our people up.”Not everyone thinks Trump is a net-positive even in places he comfortably won.
一位不愿透露姓名的共和党全国性操盘手在坦言时表示，目前“没有任何迹象表明会有足够的选民投票，以弥补流失的中间摇摆选民”。即将卸任的北卡罗来纳州共和党参议员汤姆·蒂利斯（Thom Tillis）表示，他认为特朗普在该州开展竞选活动并无益处——特朗普在过去三次总统大选中均赢下了该州，而前共和党全国委员会主席迈克尔·沃特利（Michael Whatley）目前正努力在与前州长罗伊·库珀（Roy Cooper）的竞选中缩小差距。
A national GOP operative, granted anonymity to speak candidly, said there are “no indications that there are enough turn out voters to overcome dropping some persuasion voters.”Outgoing North Carolina Republican Sen. Thom Tillis said he doesn’t think it would be helpful for Trump to campaign in his state — which the president won in all three of his presidential runs, and where former RNC chair Michael Whatley is struggling to tighten the race against former Gov. Roy Cooper.
“在我看来并非如此——只要看看选票，看看独立选民的情况。我不认为他（特朗普）是那个能把他们动员出来投票的人，”他在接受《政治报》（POLITICO）采访时说道。
“Not in my opinion — just if you take a look at the votes — you take a look at the independents. I don't think he's the one who's going to get them out,” he told POLITICO.
“我认为（特朗普的）工作是动员那些传统上支持他，但在非大选年不出来投票的人，”他补充道，“我们的工作（作为候选人）则是……拉开一些距离。这并不意味着你背叛了对总统的忠诚……所以，我认为有些州他应该去，有些州他不应该去。”然而，沃特利竞选团队的看法则不同。“现在在北卡罗来纳州，是谁在推动共和党的投票率——是特朗普还是蒂利斯？我们欢迎特朗普回到北卡罗来纳州，”沃特利的高级顾问乔纳森·费尔茨（Jonathan Felts）表示。近几周，特朗普和副总统万斯（JD Vance）都曾前往北卡罗来纳州为沃特利助选。
“I think [Trump’s] job is to get the people out who traditionally vote for him and don't show up in off-year elections,” he added. “Our job [as candidates] is to then … create some separation. It's not like you're breaking your loyalty to the president. ... So there are states I think he should go to, there are states I don't think he should go to." The Whatley campaign, however, feels differently. “Who drives R turnout right now in NC — Trump or Tillis? We would welcome Trump back to NC,” said Whatley’s senior adviser, Jonathan Felts. Both Trump and Vice President JD Vance have been to North Carolina to campaign with Whatley in recent weeks.
特朗普即将前往俄亥俄州代顿市郊外的一个共和党票仓，这是他更广泛竞选行程的一部分，反映了当前的政治困境。其他预定的行程包括俄克拉荷马州和阿拉巴马州等深红州，以及俄亥俄州、内布拉斯加州和阿拉斯加州等拥有关键参议院席位争夺的共和党州。
Trump’s upcoming stop in a red corner of Ohio outside Dayton is part of a broader campaign swing that reflects the political bind. Other stops scheduled include in deep-red states like Oklahoma and Alabama, as well as in red states with key Senate contests including Ohio, Nebraska and Alaska.
具有讽刺意味的是，不断扩大的战场版图可能会使特朗普在共和党最担心的某些地方发挥更大的作用。随着选战蔓延到他曾以两位数优势获胜的州和选区，仅仅动员更多的基本盘选民或许就足以扭转局面。
Ironically, the expanding battleground map could make Trump more useful to Republicans in some of the places they are most worried about. As the fight has spread into states and districts he won by double digits, simply turning out more of his base may be enough to make a difference.
白宫方面称，特朗普是“共和党无可争议的领袖、最佳代言人以及无与伦比的激励者”。白宫发言人戴维斯·英格尔表示：“没有人能否认这样一个事实，即特朗普总统通过‘让美国再次伟大’（MAGA）运动建立了政治史上最强大的联盟之一，而总统深知如何与他们沟通。”
The White House argued Trump is the “unequivocal leader, best messenger, and unmatched motivator for the Republican Party.”“No one can dispute the fact that President Trump has created one of the most robust coalitions in political history with the MAGA movement, and the President understands how to communicate with them,” White House spokesperson Davis Ingle said.
共和党全国委员会和共和党国会全国委员会也表示，特朗普仍然是促进投票率的宝贵工具，他们的候选人非常渴望总统能到访其选区，并与他一同参加竞选活动。共和党参议院全国委员会未回应置评请求。
The Republican National Committee and National Republican Congressional Committee also said Trump is still a valuable turnout tool, and their candidates are eager to have the president visit their districts and to appear with him on the campaign trail. The National Republican Senatorial Committee did not respond to a request for comment.
然而，一些共和党最需要特朗普去动员的选民——尤其是那些曾在总统大选中投票支持他，但在中期选举中往往选择弃权的农村地区蓝领白人选民——他们自己对特朗普的总统任期也感到不满。
But some of the voters Republicans most need Trump to activate — especially blue-collar white voters in rural areas who came out to vote for him but often skip voting in the midterms — are themselves unhappy with his presidency.
《政治报》（POLITICO）最近的民调发现，即使是特朗普最坚定的支持者——那些自认为是“MAGA”阵营的人——也开始对他处理关键问题的方式感到失望。8月份的一项《政治报》民调显示，44%的“MAGA”特朗普选民认为伊朗战争导致他们的生活成本增加，而38%的人认为这场战争对他们的开支没有实质性影响。
Recent POLITICO polling found that even some of Trump’s strongest supporters — those who identify as MAGA — are souring on his handling of key issues. A POLITICO Poll in August found that a 44% plurality of MAGA Trump voters said the Iran war has made things more expensive for them, while 38% said the war has had no real impact on their costs.
“真正感受到特朗普政策痛苦的，恰恰是特朗普的选民基础，”另一位参与全国多个摇摆州竞选的共和党策略师表示，由于谈论选情需要坦诚，他要求匿名。“他们必须动员这些人出来投票。但这些人对特朗普感到愤怒，所以这就形成了一种奇怪的动态：‘他到底是帮了忙还是帮了倒忙？他能去鼓励那些感到被剥夺权利、对特朗普感到非常愤怒的共和党选民吗？’”
“It's really Trump's voting base that's feeling the pain of Trump the most,” said another Republican operative involved in several battleground races across the country, granted anonymity to speak candidly about the landscape.“They have to turn those people out. But those people are pissed at Trump, so it's this weird dynamic of like: ‘Does he help? Does he hurt? Can he go and encourage the disenfranchised, the really pissed off Republican Trump voter?’” the operative said.
这位策略师说，“这确实将决定这次选举的结果。”值得注意的是，哪些共和党候选人正热情地参加特朗普的集会，而哪些人则选择缺席或对自己的计划保持沉默。
“That's really going to be what decides the outcome of this election.”It’s noteworthy which GOP candidates are enthusiastically coming out to Trump’s rallies — and which are sitting out or staying mum on their plans.
一位发言人确认，参议员乔恩·赫斯蒂德（Jon Husted，共和党，俄亥俄州）将会出席特朗普即将在代顿（Dayton）附近举行的集会。赫斯蒂德正在参加一场竞争激烈的选举——该州是特朗普以高票优势获胜的。共和党州长候选人维韦克·拉马斯瓦米（Vivek Ramaswamy）的发言人没有回应关于拉马斯瓦米是否出席集会的询问；同样，参加俄亥俄州第1、第7和第9选区竞选的另外三位共和党众议院候选人的发言人也没有给出任何答复。
A spokesperson confirmed that Sen. Jon Husted (R-Ohio), who is locked in a tough race in a state Trump won by double-digits, will attend Trump’s upcoming rally outside of Dayton; a spokesperson for Vivek Ramaswamy, the GOP gubernatorial candidate, did not respond to an inquiry about Ramaswamy’s attendance plans, nor did spokespeople for the trio of GOP House candidates running in Ohio’s competitive 1st, 7th and 9th Districts.
共和党众议员阿什利·欣森（Ashley Hinson，艾奥瓦州共和党参议院候选人）最近表示，伊朗战争需要“立即、成功地结束”——这一立场与特朗普的观点存在明显分歧。欣森没有参加副总统JD·万斯（JD Vance）于9月中旬在艾奥瓦州西部举行的竞选集会。不过，她本周早些时候确实出现在椭圆形办公室内，当时特朗普宣布了在艾奥瓦州建设一座价值150亿美元钢铁厂的计划。
Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson, the GOP Senate candidate in Iowa, recently said the Iran war needs to be “brought to a successful and immediate end” in a rare public break with Trump. Hinson also did not attend a campaign rally Vice President JD Vance held in western Iowa in mid-September She did, however, appear in the Oval Office behind Trump earlier this week when he announced a plan to build a $15 billion steel plant in Iowa.
然而，在当前日益严峻的政治环境下，一些共和党人认为，任何试图改变现状的努力总比什么都不做要好。
But with an ever-darkening environment, some Republicans see any efforts to reverse course as better than nothing.
“大家都看到了民意调查的结果，”德克萨斯州共和党战略家、保守派组织LIBRE Initiative的主席丹尼尔·加尔扎（Daniel Garza）说，“这些民意调查是否准确？我无从知晓。我只知道，投票率将是决定选举结果的关键因素；在这种情况下，任何有助于改善现状的努力都是有益的。”
“Everybody sees the polling,” said Daniel Garza, a Texas Republican strategist and president of the conservative LIBRE Initiative“Is the polling accurate? I have no idea. All I know is that turnout is going to be key to this, and anything helps right now, at this point.”Jordain Carney and Lisa Kashinsky contributed.