特朗普总统即将在多个红州举行的竞选活动引发了关注,因为民主党人正试图在11月中期选举前扩大其选区版图。本周,特朗普计划访问俄克拉荷马州和阿拉巴马州,此外还将前往摇摆州俄亥俄州和得克萨斯州。总统还定于周一前往内布拉斯加州。共和党人辩称,这些行程都是该党战略的一部分,旨在尽可能接近复制2024年总统大选时的投票率。
President Trump’s upcoming campaign stops in a number of red states are raising eyebrows as Democrats seek to expand the midterm map ahead of November’s midterm elections. This week, Trump is slated to visit Oklahoma and Alabama, in addition to making stops in the swing states of Ohio and Texas. The president is also set to head to Nebraska on Monday. Republicans argue the stops are all a part of the party’s strategy to get as close as they can to replicating their 2024 presidential year turnout.
但民调显示,各阶层选民对特朗普政策的看法正在恶化,这威胁到了共和党在内布拉斯加州等曾被视为安全红州的选情。“我认为到处都亮着红灯,”一位不愿透露姓名的共和党策略师表示。周三,当被问及红州之行是否预示着共和党在中期选举前面临困境时,特朗普在椭圆形办公室没有直接回答。他说:“我们拥有世界上最好的经济。没有比这更好的经济了。我们唯一缺乏的是良好的公共关系。我们似乎无法让外界了解情况。”
But polls show voters across the board souring on Trump’s policies, threatening Republican chances in what were once thought to be safe red states like Nebraska. “I think there are red flashing lights everywhere,” said an unnamed Republican strategist. Asked in the Oval Office on Wednesday whether the red state tour signals trouble for the GOP heading into the midterms, Trump did not answer directly. "We have the best economy anywhere in the world," he said. "There's no economy like this economy. The only thing we don't have is good public relations.
得克萨斯州和俄亥俄州均被视为势均力敌的州,但特朗普在阿拉巴马州和俄克拉荷马州等看似稳固的红州举办集会,引发了外界对共和党在11月全票线候选人面临的严峻挑战程度的质疑。决策桌总部(Decision Desk HQ)联合创始人兼数据科学总监斯科特·特兰特(Scott Tranter)表示:“竞选团队和总统不会把时间花在不需要的地方,因此这是一个数据点。”
We don't seem to be able to get the word across." Texas and Ohio are both considered toss-up states, but the move for Trump to hold rallies in seemingly red strongholds like Alabama and Oklahoma has raised questions about how steep of a climb Republicans up and down the ballot are facing in November. “Campaigns and presidents don’t spend time where they’re not needed, so that is a data point,” said Scott Tranter, co-founder and director of data science at Decision Desk HQ.
一位共和党消息人士提醒不要过度解读这些访问,指出这些行程是更大战略的一部分,旨在尽可能复制该党在总统大选中的投票率,以应对中期选举。该消息人士还将此次行程描述为“一石二鸟”,指出特朗普在俄克拉荷马州和阿拉巴马州的停留将分别覆盖得克萨斯州和佛罗里达州的媒体市场。
One Republican source cautioned against reading into the visits, noting that the visits are part of a larger strategy of replicating the party’s presidential election turnout as much as they can going into the midterms. The source also described the trip as “hitting two birds with one stone,” noting that Trump's stops in Oklahoma and Alabama will also play in the Texas and Florida media markets, respectively.
“没有人能像特朗普那样激励基层选民,”共和党捐赠者丹·埃伯哈特(Dan Eberhart)说道,“我更希望看到他参加竞争更为激烈的参议院选举,比如北卡罗来纳州、德克萨斯州或爱荷华州的选举。”特朗普已经访问了包括德克萨斯州、密歇根州、爱荷华州和乔治亚州在内的多个关键州。此外,他还承诺在30天内会前往35个竞争激烈的选区进行竞选活动。
“Nobody can motivate the base like Trump,” said Dan Eberhart, a Republican donor. “I would rather see him in the more competitive Senate race spots like North Carolina, Texas, or Iowa.”Trump has already visited a number of competitive states already, including Texas, Michigan, Iowa and Georgia. Additionally, Trump has pledged to make campaign stops in 35 competitive races in 30 days.
一位共和党工作人员表示:“特朗普选择在阿拉巴马州和俄克拉荷马州进行竞选活动确实有些奇怪,但这只是他众多竞选行程中的第一步罢了。”周五,特朗普将前往阿拉巴马州的莫比尔市;该市被划分为该州的第1选区和第2选区。由于选区重新划分后对共和党有利,众议院共和党人将目标对准了由民主党议员肖马里·菲格尔斯(Shomari Figures)代表的第2选区。
“It’s obviously a little peculiar,” said one Republican operative, referring to the stops in Alabama and Oklahoma. But the operative added, “It’s the first of many stops as we know.”Trump will travel to Mobile, Ala., on Friday, which is divided between the state’s 1st and 2nd congressional districts. House Republicans are targeting Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District, which is represented by Rep. Shomari Figures (D-Ala.), after it was redistricted to benefit Republicans.
尽管该选区实际上属于第1选区,但共和党候选人、州众议员雷特·马奎斯(Rhett Marques)仍计划在该选区举行竞选集会。特朗普前往俄克拉荷马州的行程也引起了人们的关注——在那里,他将与自己支持的州长候选人迈克·马泽伊(Mike Mazzei)共同参加集会。从表面上看,马泽伊对阵民主党候选人辛迪·芒森(Cyndi Munson)的竞选局势对共和党极为有利;不过根据无党派机构“库克政治报告”(Cook Political Report)的评估,这场竞选的胜负仍难以预料。
The GOP nominee, state Rep. Rhett Marques, is slated to speak at the rally even though it is technically in the 1st Congressional District. The president’s trip to Oklahoma, where he is set to be joined at a rally by his endorsed gubernatorial pick, Mike Mazzei, is also raising eyebrows. On the surface, Mazzei’s race against Democratic nominee Cyndi Munson appears to be firmly in the GOP column, with the nonpartisan Cook Political Report rating the race as “solid Republican.”
一位民主党工作人员指出:“民主党方面的民调显示,这场竞选的胜负其实非常胶着。”马泽伊的竞选团队发言人贾汉·威尔科克斯(Jahan Wilcox)在向《国会山报》(The Hill)发表的声明中提到了特朗普的背书记录:“特朗普历来都有支持获胜者的传统,而我们正在取得胜利。”
Public polling in the governor’s campaign has been scarce, but Republicans and Democrats note the race may be closer than it appears. “Democrats have seen polling showing the governor’s race is tied,” said one Democratic operative. Mazzei campaign spokesman Jahan Wilcox cited Trump’s endorsement record in a statement to The Hill.
“我们很高兴欢迎他回到俄克拉荷马州,并把此次访问带来的势头延续到11月。与此同时,迈克·马泽伊正努力废除州所得税、取消老年人和退伍军人的财产税,并让俄克拉荷马州对每个家庭来说都更加负担得起。”威尔科克斯说。8月,马泽伊在异常激烈的共和党决选中以不到一个百分点的优势险胜,距11月大选只剩两个多月。
“President Trump has a history of backing winners, and we’re winning. We’re excited to welcome him back to Oklahoma and carry the momentum from his visit through November as Mike Mazzei fights to eliminate the state income tax, abolish property taxes for seniors and veterans, and make Oklahoma more affordable for every family,” Wilcox said. Mazzei emerged from a brutal Republican primary runoff that he won by less than a point in August, giving him just over two months until the general election.
相比之下,蒙森6月以超过74%的得票率赢得民主党初选。这名未透露姓名的共和党战略人士说:“总统不仅为俄克拉荷马州共和党候选人中可能最糟糕的人背书,还选中了他。”这名战略人士补充道:“他去那里是为了挽救自己的个人品牌。”他说:“目前的选情比本应出现的更加胶着。”民主党州长协会在一份声明中回应了特朗普访问的消息,称“共和党人已进入全面恐慌状态”。
By comparison, Munson won the Democratic primary with over 74 percent of the vote in June. “The president endorsed and picked the worst possible candidate out of the field of Republicans in Oklahoma,” the unnamed GOP strategist said. “He’s going there to try to save his brand,” the strategist added. “It’s tighter than it should be.”The Democratic Governors Association responded to the news of Trump’s visit in a statement, saying “Republicans are in full-on panic mode.”
共和党全国委员会周二宣布,特朗普将前往内布拉斯加州格兰德艾兰。随着特朗普政府治下能源价格上涨给以农业为主的州的共和党人带来威胁,该州参议院选举受到了更多关注。内布拉斯加州现任联邦参议员皮特·里克茨(共和党)周二接受美国有线电视新闻网记者达娜·巴什采访时,承认了本州选民面临的经济现实。
The Republican National Committee announced on Tuesday that Trump will be visiting Grand Island, Neb. That state’s Senate race has received more attention as rising energy prices under the Trump administration threaten Republicans in agriculture-centric states. In an interview with CNN’s Dana Bash on Tuesday, Nebraska’s incumbent Sen. Pete Ricketts (R) acknowledged the economic reality voters in his state are facing.
里克茨对该电视台说:“毫无疑问,高昂的燃油价格给内布拉斯加州每个家庭的预算都带来压力。”当被问及特朗普下周对该州进行竞选访问时,里克茨说:“我们欢迎他来。”
“There’s no doubt that high fuel prices put a strain on the budgets for every Nebraska family,” Ricketts told the network. When asked about Trump’s campaign visit to Nebraska next week, Ricketts said, “We welcome him.”