伦敦——继欧盟上周与菲律宾达成贸易协议取得突破后,欧洲企业正呼吁与东盟(ASEAN)达成区域间贸易协定,布鲁塞尔方面也正寻求实现贸易和政治关系的多元化。
LONDON -- European businesses are calling for a region-to-region trade agreement with ASEAN following a breakthrough in the EU's deal with the Philippines last week, as Brussels seeks to diversify its trade and political ties.
欧盟预计还将在今年年底前与泰国达成贸易协定,第十轮谈判将持续至周二。迄今为止,欧盟已与新加坡、印度尼西亚和越南签署了贸易协定,并正在与马来西亚进行谈判。
The European Union is also expected to conclude a trade agreement with Thailand by the end of this year, with the 10th round of talks ongoing until Tuesday. To date, the EU has trade deals in the region with Singapore, Indonesia and Vietnam, and is in negotiations with Malaysia.
但面对来自中国和美国这两个全球最大经济体的竞争,企业希望欧盟能更进一步,寻求与东盟作为一个整体达成协议。
But businesses want the EU to go deeper and wider by seeking a deal with ASEAN as a bloc, in the face of competition from the two biggest economies -- China and the U.S.
欧盟-东盟商业理事会执行董事克里斯·汉弗莱(Chris Humphrey)表示:“东南亚将欧洲企业视为可靠的投资者,但这些企业正在与美国和中国政府的全面政治和财政影响力进行竞争。”
"Southeast Asia regards European companies as credible investors, but those companies are competing against the full political and financial weight of the American and Chinese governments," said Chris Humphrey, executive director of the EU-ASEAN Business Council.
他在接受《日经亚洲》采访时表示,双边协定不应是终点,欧洲企业一直呼吁达成区域间贸易协定,特别是在能源、医疗、数字和金融服务领域。
He told Nikkei Asia that bilateral agreements should not be the end point and that European businesses have consistently called for a region-to-region trade agreement, particularly in energy, health, digital and financial services.
在商业理事会9月初调查的150位欧洲商界领袖中,只有18%的人认为欧盟与东盟的接触足够深入。汉弗莱指出,除了贸易专员马罗什·谢夫乔维奇(Maros Sefcovic)和欧盟最高外交官卡娅·卡拉斯(Kaja Kallas)的访问外,高层会议仍然很少。
Only 18% of 150 European business leaders surveyed by the business council in early September said the EU was sufficiently engaged with ASEAN. Humphrey said high-level meetings remained scarce beyond visits by Trade Commissioner Maros Sefocovic and the EU's top diplomat, Kaja Kallas.
对人权、环境和食品安全标准的担忧阻碍了双方的谈判。例如,欧盟与印度尼西亚谈判多年来的一个症结在于森林砍伐问题,直到去年双方才最终签署了一项广泛的全面经济伙伴关系协定。
Concerns about human rights, and environmental and food safety standards have hampered talks between the blocs. For example, one sticking point for years in the EU's negotiations with Indonesia was over deforestation before they finally signed a wide-ranging comprehensive economic partnership agreement last year.
同样,欧盟与曼谷之间的贸易谈判于2014年停滞,此时距谈判启动仅一年,原因是泰国军方发动政变夺取政权。谈判于2023年正式重启,尽管分析人士表示他们认为短期内达成协议没有障碍,但泰国在金枪鱼和海产品捕捞方面的劳工标准已引发欧洲相关行业的担忧。
Likewise, trade negotiations between the EU and Bangkok stalled in 2014, a year after they began, because the Thai military seized power in a coup. Talks were formally relaunched in 2023 and while analysts say they do not see any stumbling blocks for an agreement soon, Thailand's labor standards in tuna and seafood fishing have raised concerns in the European sector.
在区域对区域层面,谈判最初于2007年启动,随后因欧盟对缅甸军事政变及随后镇压抗议者的担忧,于2009年经双方同意暂停。
On a region-to-region level, negotiations were first launched in 2007 and subsequently paused by mutual agreement in 2009, over EU concerns about a military coup and subsequent crackdown on protesters in Myanmar.
“东盟作为优先事项的时间远比当前地缘政治辩论所暗示的要长,”布鲁塞尔自由大学和鲁汶大学讲师卡米尔·内塞尔表示。
"ASEAN has been a priority for much longer than the current geopolitical debate suggests," said Camille Nessel, lecturer at Universite Libre de Bruxelles and KU Leuven.
新加坡尤索夫伊萨东南亚研究院高级研究员林秀莲也认为,期望错位阻碍了双方接触,欧盟希望通过贸易推动劳工、环境、可持续性、人权和监管方面的改革。
Joanne Lin, senior fellow at Singapore's ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, agreed that a mismatch in expectations has held back engagement, with the EU hoping to nudge reforms in labor, environment, sustainability, human rights and regulation through trade.
“但东盟希望欧盟成为一个更务实的伙伴,”她说,并列举了绿色转型、能源互联互通、数字贸易、韧性供应链和可持续基础设施等合作领域。
"But ASEAN would want the EU to become a more practical partner," she said, citing areas for cooperation like in green transition, energy connectivity, digital trade, resilient supply chains and sustainable infrastructure.
然而时过境迁——过去几年地缘政治竞争和紧张局势急剧升温,在欧洲主要经济体增长乏力之际,欧盟感到受到中国和美国的挤压。在其周边地区,欧盟还在应对俄罗斯的混合攻击,同时疲于应付薄弱的国防预算和政治不稳定。
Times have changed though -- geopolitical competition and tension have surged in the past few years, and the EU has felt squeezed by China and the U.S. at a time when major European economies are struggling to grow. In its own backyard, it is also fighting against Russian hybrid attacks while wrestling with weak defense budgets and political instability.
分析人士表示,在此背景下,塞夫乔维奇可能会采取更务实的做法,寻求与盟友合作,哪怕是距离更远的盟友。
In this context, Sefocovic may take a more pragmatic approach and seek cooperation with allies, even those farther away, analysts said.
在东盟国家方面,与邻国的竞争也可能加速了贸易协议的达成,因为各方都做出了妥协。
On the part of ASEAN countries, competition with neighbors may also have accelerated the conclusion of trade deals as parties reach for compromise.
内塞尔表示:“一旦越南与欧盟达成协议,这对印度尼西亚和菲律宾来说就至关重要。它们在许多相同的领域展开竞争,而优惠准入改变了这种竞争平衡。”欧盟与菲律宾的协议将取消94%贸易商品的关税,包括农产品、机械和电器。菲律宾的政府采购市场也将首次向外国参与者开放。
"Once Vietnam had an agreement with the EU, this mattered for Indonesia and the Philippines," Nessel said. "They compete in many of the same sectors, and preferential access changes that competitive balance." The EU-Philippines deal would remove tariffs on 94% of goods traded, including agrifood, machinery and appliances. For the first time, the Philippine government procurement market will also be open to foreign players.
塞夫乔维奇表示:“该协议为各种规模的企业提供了真正的机遇。在韧性已成为战略重点的当下,它还带来了更强大、更多元化的供应链。”根据官方数据,欧盟去年是菲律宾第四大贸易伙伴,占该国商品贸易总额的8.3%,双边商品贸易额为176亿欧元(约合199亿美元)。这些单一的贸易协定可能会推动双方最终达成一项协议。
"The agreement delivers real opportunities for businesses of every size," said Sefocovic. "It also delivers a stronger, more diversified supply chain at a moment when resilience has become a strategic priority." The EU was the Philippines' fourth-largest trading partner last year, representing 8.3% of the country's total trade in goods, with bilateral trade in goods valued at 17.6 billion euros ($19.9 billion), according to official figures. These singular trade deals could propel both blocs finally toward an agreement.
欧盟发言人表示:“这一与东盟成员国签署的双边自贸协定网络,可以作为最终实现区域间自贸协定的基石,这仍然是我们共同的长期目标。”克莱门特·吴(Clement Ngu)是特约撰稿人。
"This network of bilateral FTAs with individual ASEAN members can act as building blocks toward an eventual region-to-region FTA, which remains our shared long-term objective," an EU spokesperson said. Clement Ngu is a contributing writer.