里约热内卢，巴西——随着巴西人准备在周日参加总统选举的第一轮投票，他们正在权衡主要候选人之间在安全、外交政策和环境问题上的巨大分歧。不过，他们也在考虑一些与日常生活息息相关的问题。
RIO DE JANEIRO, Brazil—As Brazilians prepare to vote in the first round of the presidential election Sunday, they're weighing sharp differences between the top candidates on security, foreign policy, and the environment. But they're also thinking about kitchen table issues.
如果你真的想了解巴西人对经济的看法，只需看看他们家餐桌上出现“皮卡尼亚”（picanha）这道牛肉菜肴的频率就知道了。
And if you really want to know how Brazilians feel about the economy, look no further than how often picanha, the country's prized cut of beef, is on the table.
四年前，左翼总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦在竞选时向选民承诺：如果他当选，人们将能够再次负担得起“皮卡尼亚”这道昂贵的牛肉菜肴。当时，巴西经济仍在从新冠疫情中恢复。
When left-wing president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was campaigning for his current role four years ago, he told voters they would be able to afford picanha again if he were elected. At the time, Brazil's economy was still recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic.
“皮卡尼亚”是一种优质的牛里脊肉，这道菜在这个热爱牛肉的国家被视为繁荣的象征。
Picanha, or a top sirloin cap steak, is a marker of prosperity in this beef-loving country.
如今，卢拉正在竞选连任；根据民调显示，他的竞争非常激烈，对手是前极右翼总统贾伊尔·博索纳罗的儿子弗拉维奥·博索纳罗。卢拉的经济表现是选民们关注的焦点之一。最近的一项调查显示，只有10%的巴西人认为他们的收入在过去一年里增长速度超过了生活成本的上涨幅度。
Lula is now running for reelection in what polls suggest is a tight race with Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former far-right President Jair Bolsonaro. Lula's economic record is among the many issues under scrutiny by voters—and a recent survey found that only 10 percent of Brazilians feel their income has grown faster than the cost of living in the past year.
44岁的马塞拉·皮罗齐是一家里约热内卢烧烤店的合伙人，她说如今她只在城市的富裕地区销售“皮卡尼亚”。她表示，在较贫困的地区，人们的消费观念更为保守：“由于肉类价格高昂，我们很少被邀请为活动提供餐饮服务。”37岁的阿图尔·格德斯在里约北部工人阶级聚居区经营着一家肉铺，他也表示近年来自己销售的“皮卡尼亚”数量有所减少，转而专注于销售价格更亲民的汉堡肉饼。
Marcella Pirozzi, 44, the co-owner of a Rio de Janeiro barbecue company, says these days she only tries to sell picanha in wealthy parts of the city. In poorer areas, people are "more conservative" about their spending, she says. "We don't get hired to cater events very often due to meat prices." At his butcher shop on Rio's working-class north side, 37-year-old Arthur Guedes says he's also scaled back how much picanha he expects to sell in recent years. Instead, he's focusing on a more accessible product: hamburger patties.
卢拉上任后，一波公共支出带动了经济增长的加速，尽管目前增速正在放缓。在他任期的前三年里，平均工资的增长超过了通货膨胀。但与此同时，由于体育博彩的兴起、信贷渠道的便捷以及高利率等因素，家庭负债也急剧上升。
After Lula took office, a burst of public spending caused economic growth to speed up, though it's now slowing. In the first three years of his term, average wages grew more than inflation. But household indebtedness also shot up, thanks to factors like a boom in sports gambling, easy access to credit lines, and high interest rates.
根据巴西中央银行的数据，截至今年6月，巴西家庭收入的26.6%被用于偿还非抵押贷款。
By this June, Brazilian households were spending 26.6 percent of their income on non-mortgage debt payments, according to the central bank.
一些分析人士认为，美国的一个概念现在也适用于巴西，即“情绪性衰退”（vibecession）。该术语最初在乔·拜登政府时期被使用，用来描述一种在技术上并未陷入衰退，但民众却感到难以负担的经济状态。
Some analysts say a concept from the United States now applies in Brazil: that of a "vibecession." The term was first used in the Joe Biden administration to describe an economy that is not technically in recession, but feels unaffordable.
圣保罗大学经济学家劳拉·卡瓦略认为这个说法很贴切。她说，经济数据与民众感知之间的差距，可能源于巴西人会将现状与卢拉在2000年代首次担任总统的时期进行心理对比。当时巴西经济蓬勃发展，许多家庭第一次买得起冰箱和乘坐飞机出行。
University of São Paulo economist Laura Carvalho argues the phrase is apt. She says the gap between the economic data and how it's perceived could come from Brazilians making mental comparisons with an earlier period when Lula was president, in the 2000s. Brazil's economy boomed dramatically, and many families could afford items like refrigerators and air travel for the first time.
卡瓦略指出，相比之下，当今的经济正遭受着当时所不存在的价格冲击：“疫情、随后的乌克兰战争，以及现在的伊朗战争。”特朗普对巴西征收的高额关税也造成了经济损失。卡瓦略认为，巴西选民对生活成本的担忧是全球性现象的一部分。
In contrast, today's economy is suffering from price shocks that didn't exist back then, Carvalho said: "the pandemic, and then the war in Ukraine, and now, with the Iran war." Trump's heavy tariffs on Brazil have also taken an economic toll. Brazil's voter worries about the cost of living are part of a worldwide phenomenon, according to Carvalho.
她说：“世界各地的现任政府都在承受各种冲击导致物价上涨带来的后果。人们看到物价上涨，就会责怪执政者。”博索纳罗正在大肆渲染基本生活必需品变得难以负担这一观点。他发布了一段自己在超市谴责物价的视频，并特意点名提到了巴西烤肉中常用的皮卡尼亚牛排（picanha）。
"You have incumbents everywhere that are suffering the effects of the price increases of the different shocks," she said. "People look at the price increase and they blame whoever is in government." Bolsonaro is playing up the idea that basic staples have become unaffordable. He published a video of himself denouncing prices in the supermarket, making sure to name-check picanha.
但他并未就自己的经济主张提供太多细节。他笼统地认为，削减税收和政府开支将促进经济增长。博索纳罗的一位高级顾问曾称赞阿根廷自由意志主义总统哈维尔·米莱的政策，这些政策虽然降低了通胀，但近几个月来贫困率有所上升。
But he has not given much detail about his own economic proposals. He broadly argues that cutting taxes and government spending will boost growth. One of Bolsonaro's top advisors has praised the policies of libertarian Argentine President Javier Milei, which have reduced inflation but seen poverty rise in recent months.
卢拉方面则淡化了人们对巴西国债可能变得不可持续的担忧。他近日宣布了旨在解决家庭债务问题的新措施，例如债务重组计划和禁止在线博彩。肉铺老板格德斯表示，就在选举前几天，他仍未决定如何投票。“我没有从候选人身上看到改善国家的明确策略，”他说。
Lula, for his part, has downplayed concerns that Brazil's national debt might be getting unsustainable. He's announced new measures in recent days meant to address household indebtedness, like a debt restructuring program and ban on online betting. Guedes, the butcher shop owner, said that only days before the election, he still hadn't decided how to vote. "I don't see clear strategies from the candidates for how to improve the country," he said.
皮罗齐已经拿定了主意。她说她“准备好迎接改变”，并将投票给博索纳罗。
Pirozzi has made up her mind. She says she's "ready for a change" and will vote for Bolsonaro.