根据花旗研究部美国股票策略主管Scott Chronert的观点,尽管市场普遍预期美联储会再次加息,但其下一步行动可能是降息。
The Federal Reserve 's next move could be to cut rates, despite markets widely expecting another hike, according to Scott Chronert , head of U.S. equity strategy at Citi Research.
Chronert预计美联储可能会在2027年中期之前保持观望态度,届时才会降低借贷成本。
Chronert anticipates the Fed could be in a holding pattern until mid 2027 when it can then lower borrowing costs.
然而,根据CME的FedWatch工具显示,联邦基金期货市场认为美联储在12月的会议上再次加息的概率约为85%。
But fed funds futures suggest a roughly 85% likelihood that the Fed will increase rates again at its meeting in December, according to CME's FedWatch tool.
Chronert在CNBC的'Squawk on the Street'节目中表示:‘我们已经看到了9月份的加息,他们可能会在明年年中之前进入观望模式。’
Citi economists believe "we've got the September hike and they're probably in pause mode 'til middle of next year," Chronert said Thursday on CNBC's "Squawk on the Street."
美联储在9月份将利率上调了25个基点,这是三年来的首次加息。央行暗示未来可能还会再次加息。
The Fed hiked rates by 25 basis points in September, marking its first increase to borrowing costs in three years. The central bank signaled that another hike could be in the cards.
Chronert认为,加息后通胀可能会开始回落,劳动力市场将面临更大压力。
Following the Fed's hike, Chronert said inflation could begin to pullback and the labor market could feel more intense pressure.
不过他也承认,单凭9月份的加息不足以证明美联储致力于降低通胀。
To be sure, Chronert acknowledged that the September rate hike alone wouldn't "do much" to establish a narrative that the Fed is focused on bringing down inflation.
因此,他建议再加息一两次将有助于向市场传递央行政策稳定的信号。‘我可以将另一次加息视为积极信号,’Chronert说道。
Because of that, he said one or two additional increases could be useful for assuring traders that the central bank is stable. "I can take another Fed rate hike and probably spin that as a positive," Chronert said.