东京——根据日本央行周四发布的9月份会议纪要，该行的货币政策委员会讨论了是否需要进一步加息以调整过于宽松的金融环境。这表明央行在制定货币政策时，正在密切关注利率及贷款增长情况。
TOKYO -- The Bank of Japan's policy-setting board debated the need for additional rate hikes to adjust "accommodative" financial conditions, a summary of opinions from its September meeting released Thursday shows, signaling the central bank is closely monitoring interest rates and lending growth in making monetary decisions.
日本央行的目标是在确保加息不会扰乱稳定的贷款趋势和股价的前提下，决定加息的时机和节奏。
The BOJ aims to decide the timing and pace of rate hikes while ensuring the move will not disrupt solid lending trends and stock prices.
在9月份的会议上，日本央行将政策利率从1.0%上调至1.25%，这是三个月来的首次加息，此前加息的频率为每六个月一次。
At the September meeting, the BOJ raised the policy rate to 1.25% from 1.0%, the first hike in three months, accelerating from the previous pace of every six months.
部分委员会成员认为，央行已经“接近”或“基本达到了”2%的通胀目标。日本央行一直致力于将通胀率提升至2%，同时试图在加息的同时保持宽松的贷款环境。
Some policy board members argued the central bank is "fairly close to" or "has generally reached" the underlying inflation rate target of 2%. The BOJ has been focused on raising underlying inflation to 2%, while trying to maintain an accommodative lending environment even with rate hikes.
由于日元疲软和原油价格高涨等因素，日本央行现在对物价可能出现大幅上涨的情况变得更加谨慎。此外，央行还希望防止金融市场变得过于宽松。
Having nearly reached that 2% target, the BOJ is now growing cautious about sharp price upticks, due to factors such as a weak yen and high crude prices. The central bank is also trying to prevent the financial market from becoming too accommodative.
一位委员会成员表示：“如果物价继续朝着符合2%通胀目标的方向发展，且金融环境依然保持宽松状态，那么央行就有必要通过继续上调政策利率来调整货币政策的宽松程度。”该成员认为，如果出现通胀可能超出预期的迹象，加息的节奏也需要加快。
"It will be necessary for the bank to continue to adjust the degree of monetary accommodation by raising the policy interest rate," said one board member, if "prices continue to develop in a manner consistent with the price stability target of 2%" and "financial conditions remain accommodative." The member argued the pace of hikes will need to rise if there are signs inflation could exceed expectations.
会议结束后，在新闻发布会上，行长上田和夫提出了三种判断金融环境是否宽松的标准：利率、银行贷款情况以及资产市场状况。
At a news conference after the meeting, Gov. Kazuo Ueda offered three ways of determining if financial conditions are accommodative or not: interest rates, bank lending and asset markets.
植田承认，长端和超长端利率已大幅走高。9月25日，10年期日本国债收益率一度触及3.115%，达到约30年来未见的水平，并仍呈上升趋势。长期利率上升可能推高长期固定利率按揭贷款及其他贷款的利率。“另外两个渠道仍略具宽松性。”植田说。
Ueda acknowledged that long and ultra-long rates have tightened considerably. Yields on 10-year government bonds touched 3.115% on Sept. 25, a high not seen in roughly three decades, and remain on an upward trajectory. Rises in long-term interest can push up rates on long-term fixed-rate mortgages and other loans. "The other two channels are still somewhat accommodative," Ueda said.
日本央行数据显示，自春季以来，银行贷款同比增速一直维持在6%左右。随着并购和房地产贷款增加，增速升至2020年和2021年以来的最高水平；当年政府曾在新冠疫情期间推出融资支持措施。
Since spring, the growth in bank lending has remained around 6% on the year, BOJ statistics show. With more loans for mergers and acquisitions and real estate, the rate of growth is the highest since 2020 and 2021, when the government set up financing support amid the COVID-19 pandemic.
日本央行周四发布的9月短期经济观测调查显示，此前加息尚未导致金融机构贷款立场发生重大变化。金融机构贷款态度扩散指数为+13，与6月上一次调查持平。股票和外汇等资产市场也呈现宽松态势。
The BOJ's September Tankan survey, also released Thursday, indicated that past rate hikes have not led to major changes in the lending stance of financial institutions. The diffusion index for the lending attitude of financial institutions came in at plus 13, unchanged from the previous survey in June. Asset markets such as equities and foreign exchange are also accommodative.
周四，东京证券交易所基准日经股票平均指数收于近69000点，较前一交易日上涨2203点。该指数较6月高点略有回落，但仍处于历史高位。股市上涨预计将产生财富效应，增加股票持有者的消费并推高物价。
On Thursday, the benchmark Nikkei Stock Average on the Tokyo Stock Exchange closed near 69,000, up 2,203 points from the day before. The index has slid somewhat from its June high, but remains at historic levels. Stock market gains are expected to have a wealth effect, increasing consumption by those who own stocks and driving up prices.
美国高盛编制的一项衡量金融条件的指数显示，日本的金融环境比美国和欧洲更宽松。这可能意味着日元在外汇市场面临更大的下行压力，并加剧输入型通胀。
An index measuring financial conditions by U.S.-based Goldman Sachs shows Japan's environment is more accommodative than those of the U.S. and Europe. That could mean more downward pressure on the yen in the foreign exchange market, worsening import-induced inflation.
只要整体金融条件仍保持宽松，日本央行就打算继续加息，但同时也希望避免过快收紧。
The BOJ intends to keep raising rates as long as overall financial conditions remain accommodative, but it also wants to avoid a rapid tightening.
植田在9月议息会议结束后表示：“在一定程度上，必须避免银行贷款和资产价格大幅调整所造成的负面后果。”
"It is necessary to a certain extent to avoid negative consequences of significant adjustments in bank lending and asset prices," Ueda said after the September meeting.
“如果股市下跌，继续加息将尤其困难。”一名日本央行官员表示。股市大跌可能导致金融条件迅速收紧。
"It will be particularly tough to keep raising interest rates if stocks fall," said a BOJ official. A stock market tumble could lead to a rapid tightening of financial conditions.
由首相高市早苗政府任命的政策委员会成员浅田东一郎和佐藤绫乃，在9月会议上反对加息。两人在加息问题上都被视为鸽派人士。
Policy board members Toichiro Asada and Ayano Sato, both appointed by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's government, opposed the hike at the September meeting. Both are seen as dovish on rate hikes.
会议纪要还显示，作为政府代表出席会议的经济财政政策大臣木内稔，要求日本央行全面评估过去加息对经济的影响。这有力表明，政府仍倾向于宽松政策。
The summary from the meeting also showed that Minoru Kiuchi, minister of state for economic and fiscal policy, who attended the meeting as a government representative, asked that the BOJ thoroughly review the effect of past hikes on the economy. This was a strong indication of the government's ongoing preference for easing.