当大多数摩尔多瓦人还在睡梦中时，9月18日凌晨4点20分左右，首都基希讷乌东部边缘的居民报告称看到了强光闪烁并听到了巨大的爆炸声。警方搜寻了数小时以确定原因，最终在科洛尼察村附近的一片收割过的田野里发现了无人机的残骸，包括一台喷气发动机。该村距离首都约7公里，属于基希讷乌市辖区。爆炸声在首都部分地区均能听到。引人注目的是，摩尔多瓦国防部表示，当晚并未记录到任何未经授权的飞越。
As most of Moldova slept, around 4.20 a.m. on Sept. 18, residents on the eastern periphery of Chișinău, the capital, reported a bright flash and a sizable explosion. Police searched for hours to determine the cause before finding the remnants of a drone, including a jet engine, scattered across a harvested field near the village of Colonița. The village lies roughly seven kilometers east of the capital and forms part of the Chișinău municipality. The blast was heard in parts of the capital. Strikingly, Moldova’s Ministry of Defense said it had recorded no unauthorized overflight that night.
摩尔多瓦位于乌克兰和罗马尼亚之间。它是欧盟候选国，但仍处于北约之外。其雷达覆盖有限，且没有投入运行的国家手机预警系统。这是个问题，因为自2022年俄罗斯全面入侵乌克兰以来，摩尔多瓦一直面临坠落无人机和碎片的威胁。
Moldova sits between Ukraine and Romania. It is an EU candidate but remains outside of NATO. It possesses limited radar coverage and no national mobile phone alert system in operation. This is a problem, given that Moldova has lived with falling drones and fragments since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
然而，科洛尼察爆炸的地理位置以及摩尔多瓦领空无人机入侵频率的增加，暴露了该国的一个严重弱点。
However, the geography of the Colonița explosion and the increasing frequency of drone incursions in Moldovan airspace reveal a serious vulnerability for the nation.
9月18日的爆炸是已知的首起无人机在基希讷乌市辖区内坠落并爆炸的案件。诚然，此前曾有无人机飞越首都上空，但此次无人机是在其管辖范围内坠落的。居民在当局确定爆炸位置前就已报告了爆炸声。当一架无人机在如此接近该国政治、经济和人口中心的地方爆炸时，第一个预警信号不应是撞击的声音。
The explosion of Sept. 18 is the first known case of a drone falling and exploding within the Chișinău municipality. Granted, previous drones had flown over the capital before, but this one came down within its jurisdiction. Residents reported the explosion before the authorities could identify its location. When a drone explodes so close to the country’s political, economic and populational center, the first warning should not be the sound of its impact.
摩尔多瓦当局记录的未经授权领空事件：2022年4起，2023年6起，2024年10起，2025年17起。然而到2026年8月19日，摩尔多瓦已统计到16起；到9月24日？更是达到了惊人的44起违规。仅9月24日上午，就有4个空中物体穿越摩尔多瓦领空，导致北部领空临时关闭。
Moldovan authorities recorded four unauthorized airspace incidents in 2022, six in 2023, ten in 2024, and 17 in 2025. By Aug. 19, 2026, however, Moldova had already counted 16; by Sept. 24? An alarming 44 violations. Four aerial objects crossed Moldovan airspace on the morning of Sept. 24 alone, prompting the temporary closure of northern airspace.
六周内新增二十九起侵犯领空事件，光靠关于邻国战争后果的陈词滥调已无法应对。此类侵犯事件表明，摩尔多瓦领土面临的风险正急剧升级，甚至波及首都边缘。每架无人机越境的确切意图尚不确定。摩尔多瓦无需在加强探测和公众预警前，先确定无人机的预定目的地。
Twenty-nine additional violations in six weeks require more than stock platitudes about the consequences of a war next door. Such violations indicate a sharply accelerating exposure of Moldovan territory, right up to the capital’s edge. The precise reason for each crossing remains uncertain. Moldova need not establish a drone’s intended destination before improving detection and public warning.
总统玛娅·桑杜已承认，监视能力虽有改善但仍显不足，现有的导弹、防空武器和电子系统仅保护部分关键基础设施。欧盟于今年七月承诺提供1.2亿欧元，用于为摩尔多瓦采购中程防空系统，但采购部署需要时间。这些投资至关重要。在系统投入使用前，弥补预警缺口同样关键。基希讷乌应同意与罗马尼亚和乌克兰建立更快、常态化的飞行轨迹和警报信息交换机制。
President Maia Sandu has acknowledged that surveillance is improving but remains insufficient, and that existing missiles, anti-aircraft weaponry and electronic systems protect only selected critical infrastructure. The EU committed, this July, €120 million towards a medium-range air-defense system for Moldova, which will take time to acquire and deploy. But these investments are of immeasurable importance. So is the closing of the warning gap before they come into service. Chișinău should agree to a faster, routine exchange of flight tracks and alerts with Romania and Ukraine.
这并非抽象的失职。当那架后来坠落在米海莱尼韦奇附近的无人机于9月8日首次进入罗马尼亚领空时，罗马尼亚国家预警系统RO-Alert在几分钟内就向五个县的手机发送了警报。而在无人机最终坠落的摩尔多瓦勒什卡尼区，却没有任何类似的警报触达民众。挪威首相后来透露，一架无人机曾差点击中乌克兰总统泽连斯基离开基希讷乌时的专机。
This is not an abstract failing. When the same drone that later crashed near Mihăilenii Vechi first crossed into Romanian airspace on Sept. 8, RO-Alert, Romania’s national alert system, reached phones across five Romanian counties within minutes. No comparable message reached anyone in Moldova’s Rîșcani district, where the drone came down later. Norway’s prime minister later said a drone had nearly struck Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s aircraft as it departed Chișinău.
摩尔多瓦驻美大使表示，这一时机“恐非巧合”。摩尔多瓦自有的预警系统对应物MD-ALERT目前仅存在于获批的概念阶段。该项目于三月获批，由世界银行贷款资助，预计2027年投入运行。即便如此，其设计初衷是应对洪水和热浪，而非坠落的无人机；目前没有任何机制将其与欧盟资金拟资助的雷达和拦截系统联通。
Moldova’s own ambassador in Washington said the timing was probably “not an accident.”Moldova’s own early alert system equivalent, MD-ALERT, exists for now only as an approved concept. Greenlit in March, it is financed by a World Bank loan and is due to become operational in 2027. Even then, it is built around floods and heatwaves, not falling drones; nothing currently ties it to the radar and interception systems the EU’s money is meant to fund.
华盛顿在这件事中也有所利益。2022年2月至2024年9月期间，美国宣布向摩尔多瓦提供最高10亿美元的援助；这一承诺并未改变。今年5月，华盛顿又宣布在未来四年内提供800万美元，用于加强摩尔多瓦的网络安全，并提升其政府系统的防御能力。这表明美国仍然认为摩尔多瓦的韧性值得支持。不过，这些援助主要集中在网络安全领域；在无人机技术、雷达系统或公共预警系统方面，美国并未提供相应的支持——尽管自去年以来，摩尔多瓦的空域侵犯事件增加了两倍以上。
Washington has a stake here too. Between February 2022 and September 2024, the U.S. announced up to $1 billion in assistance to Moldova. That commitment hasn’t disappeared: In May, Washington announced $8 million over four years to strengthen Moldova’s cybersecurity and harden its government systems against attack. It is a sign the U.S. still sees Moldova’s resilience as worth backing. But that support has stayed on the cyber side. Nothing comparable has followed for drones, radar or public warning, even as airspace violations have more than doubled since last year.
其实，这些情况并不需要新的援助计划或新的论据。通过“对外军事融资”（Foreign Military Financing）机制，或美国对北约“国防及相关安全能力建设”（Defence and Related Security Capacity Building）倡议的资助，美国完全可以将现有的援助扩展到目前摩尔多瓦面临的最紧迫的威胁上。
None of this requires a new aid package, or even a new argument. A modest counter-drone allocation through Foreign Military Financing or the U.S. contribution to NATO’s Defence and Related Security Capacity Building initiative would extend Washington’s existing support to the threat now most directly facing Moldova.
“Colonița”事件之所以“幸运”，仅仅是因为无人机坠落的地点较为合适，而非因为人们能够迅速发现它的存在。与美国布加勒斯特和基辅之间现有的实时飞行数据共享机制相比，这种机制所需的成本几乎只是政治意愿的问题而已。针对包括基希讷乌（Chișinău）及靠近乌克兰边境的少数高风险区域，只需发布专门的、针对安全问题的警报即可；这样的警报系统完全可以先于更全面的民事保护系统建立起来。
The Colonița event was fortunate only in where the drone happened to land, not in how quickly anyone learned it had. A standing, real-time arrangement to share flight-track data with Bucharest and Kyiv costs little beyond political will. A narrow, security-specific alert for the handful of areas at risk, including Chișinău and near the Ukrainian border, could be running well before the broader civil protection system it will eventually sit alongside.
罗马尼亚在9月8日发布的警报涉及的是另一架无人机，时间距离“Colonița”事件发生还有十天——这些例子充分说明了及时预警的重要性。
Romania’s alerts on Sept. 8 concerned a different drone, ten days before the Colonița explosion. They show what a timely warning can look like.
在摩尔多瓦能够为其公民提供类似的预警机制之前，下一架无人机可能仍会在政府发现之前就自行“现身”（即引发新的安全事件）。
Until Moldova can give its own residents similar notice, the next drone may again announce itself before the state does.
Will Kingston-Cox是Europinion的创始人兼总经理；Laurențiu Pleșca则是美国德国马歇尔基金会（German Marshall Fund of the United States）的项目官员。
Will Kingston-Cox is founder and managing director of Europinion. Laurențiu Pleșca is a program officer at the German Marshall Fund of the United States.