作者：丹尼尔·莫斯（Daniel Moss）澳大利亚储备银行本周将利率上调至15年来的最高水平，这是对各大经济体未来走势的一次彩排。
By Daniel Moss The Reserve Bank of Australia's interest-rate increase this week to the highest level in 15 years was a dress rehearsal for what's to come in bigger economies.
随着通胀不仅表现顽固、而且开始再度回升，澳储行成为了今年第一家恢复加息的重要央行。行长米歇尔·布洛克（Michele Bullock）于2月开始收紧政策，并在随后的几个月里，逆转了2025年实施的三次降息。周二，一个新的门槛被跨越：在经济强劲复苏之后，借贷成本超过了疫情后的峰值。但这并不是悉尼方面传出的最重要的信息。
The RBA was the first noteworthy central bank to resume raising borrowing costs this year as inflation proved not only stubborn, but started picking up again. Governor Michele Bullock began tightening in February and, over the following months, reversed the three cuts undertaken in 2025. On Tuesday, a new threshold was crossed: Borrowing costs exceeded the peak reached post-pandemic after growth came roaring back. But that wasn't the most important message from Sydney.
货币当局必须意识到，仅仅对立场进行微调可能是不够的。全球的企业和消费者一直将新冠疫情前资金充裕、通胀温和的时期作为他们的参考点，而他们对这个新时代毫无准备。布洛克对此直言不讳：疫情前及疫情期间极低的利率是由特殊情况造成的。“我们当然不会回到过去，”她在周二表示。我已经很久没有听到央行行长使用如此坦诚的语言了。
Monetary authorities must realize that just a tweak to their stanceprobably won’t be sufficient. And businesses and consumers worldwide, who use the pre-Covid period of easy money and muted inflation as their reference point, are unprepared for the new era. Bullock was blunt on that point: The extremely low rates prior to and through the pandemic were due to unique circumstances. “Certainly we are not going back,” she said Tuesday. It’s been a while since I have heard the head of central bank use such candid language.
作为伊朗战争爆发后首个加息的央行，澳储行非常值得我们密切关注。与欧洲、美国和亚洲部分地区的同行一样，布洛克发现自己处于防守状态。不断攀升的能源价格、具有韧性的劳动力市场以及资本支出的激增正在共同支撑经济增长。如果说有什么不同的话，那就是经济扩张正在重新加速，通胀的前景也随之卷土重来。
As the first to hike after the Iran war broke out, it's worth following the RBA carefully. Like counterparts in Europe, the US and parts of Asia, Bullock finds herself on the defensive. Climbing energy prices, resilient labor markets and a spike in capital spending are combining to buttress growth. If anything, expansions are reaccelerating and with them prospects for inflation.
美联储主席凯文·沃什与欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德都公开表示，物价上涨的幅度已经超出了他们的预期目标。如果只是空谈而不采取实际行动，这种表态很快就会失去效力。沃什经过几次联邦公开市场委员会的会议，以及市场的强烈反应后，才终于传达出了正确的信息（至少目前来看是这样）。今年欧洲央行已经两次加息；周三公布的德国通胀数据表明通胀压力进一步加剧，因此官员们正在讨论是否应该再次加息。
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde freely recite the length of time price gains have exceeded their target. You can't engage in that rhetorical exercise for long without action. It took Warsh a few meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee — and a backlash from the markets — to convey the right message. But after last month's hike, he hit the right notes — for now, at least. The ECB tightened twice this year and officials are debating a third after figures Wednesday showed a jump in German prices.
去年央行是否做出了错误的决策（即没有及时加息），从而加剧了他们在2021年和2022年未能有效控制通胀的错误？如今，央行面临着诸多挑战：油价上涨、全球贸易体系在美国关税压力下的韧性，以及数据中心建设带来的支出激增。这些因素推动了电力和建筑行业的投资，同时也增加了对技术工人的需求。
Did central bankers err in cutting last year, compounding their bigger mistake of missing the price surge of 2021 and 2022? They are confronted with a number of shocks: Higher oil costs, the fortitude of the global trading system in the face of US tariffs, and the boom in spending on data centers. The latter has spurred investment in electricity, construction and propelled demand for skilled labor.
问题的关键可能在于如何正确看待当前的形势。如今的经济状况或许比新冠疫情之前的十年更为“正常”——当时主要经济体的借贷成本接近于零，官员们还担心会出现通缩。人们已经习惯了这种低利率的环境。
The problem may come down to perspective. Conditions today may be closer to normal than the decade preceding Covid, when borrowing costs were close to zero in major economiesand officials worried about a lack of inflation. People became used to the .
然而，究竟什么是“正常”的经济状态，这个问题并不仅限于央行层面；债券市场也面临着类似的困境。10年期美国国债的收益率自2007年以来首次超过5%，全球各国政府的债券市场也经历了自2024年以来最糟糕的一个季度。那么，长期市场利率回升到全球金融危机前的水平，究竟意味着什么呢？
The challenge of identifying exactly what is meant by normal isn't restricted to the official sector. The struggle for perspective besets the bond market, which is enduring a notable sell-off. The yield on 10-year Treasury securities has exceeded 5% for the first time since 2007, while global governments bonds endured their worst quarter since 2024. But what’s fundamentally wrong with long-term market rates going back to levels that preceded the worst days of the global financial crisis?
当美债收益率接近于零、欧洲债务收益率处于负值时，这种现象曾遭到猛烈抨击，被视为全球经济深陷投资与生产力匮乏之苦的病态表现。有些人甚至认为这种情况是不道德的，是“日本化”正在降临全球的确凿信号。然而，日本卷土重来，私营部门对资本的需求也随之回归。如果调整过程能渐进一些，会不会更好？当然会。但市场的摆动往往十分剧烈。
When yields on US Treasuries were approaching zero and those on European debt were negative, it was panned as deplorable and symptomaticof a global economy suffering from a dearth of investment and productivity. Some even considered such conditions as immoral and a sure sign that “Japanification” was descending on the world. But Japan is back, as is private sector demand for capital. Would it be better if the correction was gradual? Sure. But markets can swing forcefully.
通胀居高不下、高出目标一两个百分点的环境，给政策制定者带来了一个令人沮丧的灰色地带。他们显然无需通过引发经济衰退来为物价降温，但也不能开启自动驾驶模式。这既不是疫情之后的那段时期，也不是20世纪70年代末——在那些时期，行动路线是显而易见的。这同样不是人们抱怨失业式复苏的2010年代，当时应对的良方是长达数年的货币刺激。
An environment where inflation is sticky, a percentage point or two above target, makes for a frustrating gray area for policymakers. It’s not obvious they need to induce a recession to cool prices, but nor is going on autopilot an option. This isn’t the pandemic’s aftermath or the late 1970s, when the course of action was obvious. Neither is it the 2010s when people complained about a jobless recovery, for which the remedy was yearslong monetary stimulus.
首先，要将通胀拉回目标水平。然后，我们再来讨论该如何称呼这个时期。正如布洛克（Bullock）所提及的那样，这是新常态，还是旧常规的复兴？
First, wrestle inflation to target. Then we can debate what we call this period. The new normal, as Bullock floated, or the revival of an old ordinary?
观点：
OPIN To contact the author of this story: at dmoss@bloomberg.net