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能把鲍威尔从美联储理事会赶走吗?需要了解什么Can Trump Oust Powell From the Fed Board? What to Know

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自唐纳德·特朗普总统第二个任期开始以来,他就一直试图强行将自己的意志强加给美联储,打破了美国中央银行应远离政治干预的现代惯例(至少在公开层面上是这样)。特朗普曾施压要求美联储降低利率,并公开抨击时任美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔。他还试图以未经证实的抵押贷款欺诈指控为由,将美联储官员丽莎·库克赶下台。

By Enda Curran Since the start of his second term, President Donald Trump has waged a fierce campaign to impose his will on the Federal Reserve, breaking with the modern convention of walling off the US central bank from political interference, at least publicly. Trump has sought to pressure the bank to cut interest rates and verbally attacked then-Fed chair Jerome Powell. He also has attempted to push a Fed governor, Lisa Cook, from her job, over unproven allegations of mortgage fraud.

虽然在美国总统任命的凯文·沃什于5月接替鲍威尔后,特朗普的公开批评暂时有所减弱,但种种迹象表明,特朗普仍持续关注美联储的运作。

While Trump’s public complaints briefly subsided after Kevin Warsh, the president’s appointee, succeeded Powell in May, there have been clear signs that Trump has maintained his focus on the Fed.

秋初,特朗普再次对鲍威尔发起攻击,称其应因美联储在总部翻新项目中的管理失误而辞去美联储理事职务。

In early fall, Trump resumed his attacks against Powell, saying he should resign from the central bank’s board of governors over findings the Fed mismanaged the renovation of its headquarters.

9月30日,美联储内部监督机构发布的一份报告指出,由于管理不善,美联储总部的翻新项目成本从最初的13亿美元大幅上升至24亿美元。该报告并未发现任何犯罪行为,也未指出与该项目相关的“行政不当行为”。在鲍威尔担任美联储主席期间,特朗普多次就货币政策问题批评他,并利用美联储总部的翻新项目作为攻击他的工具。

Trump’s efforts have renewed the question of how much a US president can and should influence an institution designed to be independent. Trump called for Powell to resign from the Fed’s board of governors after the central bank’s internal watchdog, in a report released Sept. 30, outlined a series of management missteps that caused a renovation project at the bank’s headquarters to balloon from the initial estimates of $1.3 billion in 2020. The report found no evidence of criminal wrongdoing and didn’t identify any “administrative misconduct” connected to the $2.4 billion project.

鲍威尔坚决抵制特朗普试图将其赶下台的企图;在第二个任期结束后,他选择继续留任美联储理事职务,这一决定也打破了传统(通常情况下,美联储理事在任期结束后会离职)。他的理事任期将持续到2028年1月。

During Powell’s tenure leading the central bank, Trump repeatedly criticized him over monetary policy and used the Fed’s Washington, DC, headquarters renovation as a cudgel against him. Powell resisted Trump’s efforts to push him out as Fed chairman.

翻修项目长期以来一直是美联储与特朗普政府之间的争议焦点,因为总统一直推动下调利率。2026年初、司法部围绕该项目展开了一项颇具争议的调查。9月30日发布的一份报告似乎排除了提出刑事指控的可能。特朗普曾试图解职库克。她自2022年起担任美联储理事。

Powell also broke with tradition when he decided to remain at the Fed as a governor after his second term as chair expired in May. His term as a governor runs to January 2028. The renovation project has long been a flashpoint between the Fed and the Trump administration as the president pushed for lower interest rates. Near the start of 2026 it prompted a controversial investigation by the Justice Department. The report on Sept. 30 appeared to put to rest the prospect for criminal charges.

库克尚未受到任何刑事指控。她否认了有关她犯有抵押贷款欺诈罪的指控,即她将另一套住宅虚报为主要居所,以获得更优惠的贷款条件。她的律师表示,将对任何试图解职她的行为提出挑战。最高法院今年6月裁定,特朗普没有给库克提供回应不当行为指控的机会,因此她的职位目前看来仍是安全的。但法院仍允许特朗普再次尝试解职库克,前提是他必须先给她申辩的机会。

Trump has attempted to fire Cook, who has served as Fed governor since 2022. Cook hasn’t been charged with a crime and she has denied the allegations that she committed mortgage fraud by falsely labeling a secondary home as her primary residence to get better loan terms. Her attorney has said they will challenge any attempt to fire her. Her position appears safe for the time being because the Supreme Court ruled in June that Trump had failed to provide her with the opportunity to respond to accusations of wrongdoing. But the court left open the possibility that Trump could try again to fire Cook as long as he provided her with a chance to defend herself first.

库克由时任总统乔·拜登任命,其任期将持续至2038年。美联储观察人士警告说,库克案对于维护美联储不受政治干预的独立性仍至关重要。

Appointed by then-President Joe Biden, Cook is serving a term set to expire in 2038. Fed observers warn that the Cook case remains critical for Fed independence from political interference.

《联邦储备法》第10条规定,美联储理事会成员可由总统“因故解职”,主席也是理事会成员之一。但今年6月,最高法院以接近分裂的表决结果强化了美联储相对于白宫的独立性,保护理事不会在没有不当行为证据的情况下被总统解职。

Section 10 of the Federal Reserve Act says members of the Fed’s board of governors, of which the chair is one, can be “removed for cause by the president.”But in June, a closely divided Supreme Court reinforced the Fed’s independence from the White House, protecting governors from being fired by the president without proof of wrongdoing.

法院将“原因”解释为无能、玩忽职守或职务上的不当行为。库克辩称,对她的不当行为指控涉及的事项发生在她获任命的一年之前,与她作为美联储理事的职责无关,因此不符合上述标准。最高法院尚未就是否足以据此解职库克作出裁定,即如果针对她的指控属实,是否构成足够的解职理由。

Courts have interpreted “cause” to mean inefficiency, neglect of duty or malfeasance in office. Cook has argued that her alleged misconduct took place a year before her appointment and had nothing to do with her duties as Fed governor, and argued it therefore doesn’t meet that standard. The Supreme Court hasn’t ruled on whether the allegations against Cook, if true, would be sufficient grounds for removing her.

总统对美联储最明确的权力,在于填补理事会空缺席位,并任命其中一些人担任理事会的领导职务,包括主席。

The president’s clearest power over the Fed is through filling vacancies on the board of governors and in placing some of those appointees in leadership positions, including the chair, on that body.

2018年,鲍威尔出任主席,接替珍妮特·耶伦;耶伦后来在拜登政府中担任财政部长。特朗普任命鲍威尔时,打破了近年来的一项惯例:新总统通常会再次任命前任选定的美联储主席。拜登于2021年再次任命鲍威尔。

As chair, Powell in 2018 succeeded Janet Yellen, who later served as Treasury secretary under Biden. In appointing Powell, Trump broke from recent historical precedent in which new presidents reappoint the chair chosen by their predecessor. Biden reappointed Powell in 2021.

两党总统都曾试图通过公开和私下施压来影响美联储。历史上,总统曾当面表达不满——1965年,林登·约翰逊把美联储主席小威廉·麦克切斯尼·马丁召到总统位于得州 的 ranch,严厉斥责他上调借贷成本。20世纪70年代,理查德·尼克松总统曾对时任美联储主席阿瑟·伯恩斯施压;一些经济学家认为,这导致美联储当时没有采取有力措施遏制通胀。特朗普在首个总统任期内,每当不同意美联储的利率决定时,都会公开痛斥美联储和鲍威尔。

Presidents of both parties have tried to influence the Fed by applying pressure both publicly and privately. Historically, presidents have aired complaints in person — Lyndon Johnson summoned Fed Chairman William McChesney Martin Jr. to the president’s Texas ranch in 1965 to berate him for raising borrowing costs. President Richard Nixon in the 1970s famously applied pressure on then-Fed Chair Arthur Burns, which some economists believe led the central bank to refrain from taking forceful steps to rein in inflation at the time. During his first presidential term, Trump publicly lambasted the Fed and Powell when he disagreed with their interest-rate decisions.

拜登政府成员总体上避免公开评论该央行的政策。但一些民主党国会议员就没那么克制。例如,麻萨诸塞州参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦曾公开要求美联储降息,美联储随后于2024年9月采取了降息行动。

Members of Biden’s administration largely refrained from speaking publicly about the central bank’s policy. But some Democratic members of Congress were less restrained. Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, for instance, publicly called on the central bank to lower interest rates before it did so in September 2024.

鲍威尔在担任主席期间强调,美联储的目标是保持政治中立,在制定政策时只考虑什么最有利于经济。

During his tenure as chair, Powell emphasized that the Fed aims to be apolitical and consider only what’s best for the economy as it sets policy.

然而,人们普遍认为美联储是在政治环境中运作的。美联储领导层与财政部密切合作,尤其是在危机时期,并与国会议员交流联络。美联储在作出决策时,必须考虑总统和国会各项决定对经济造成的影响,例如减税或大规模支出计划。

Yet the Fed is widely understood to operate in a political context. Fed leaders work closely with the Treasury Department, especially during times of crisis, and spend time networking with Capitol Hill lawmakers. The Fed’s decisions have to take into account the economic impact of decisions by both the president and Congress, such as tax cuts or large spending plans.

支持独立性的理由是,如果投资者和消费者相信中央银行会不计政治后果、采取一切必要措施,那么经济从长远来看将受益更多。经济研究表明,独立于政府的中央银行在控制通胀方面有着更佳的业绩记录。

The argument for independence is that the economy will benefit more in the long run if investors and consumers believe that the central bank will do whatever is needed without fear of political consequences. Economic research shows that central banks with autonomy from government have a greater track record in controlling inflation.

独立中央银行的支持者表示,摆脱政治压力正是银行能够采取必要但有时不受欢迎的措施的原因,例如加息以遏制通胀。总体而言,政客往往喜欢较低的利率,因为降低借贷成本有助于人们购买更多商品。

Advocates of independent central banks say freedom from political pressure is what lets banks take necessary but sometimes unpopular steps, such as raising interest rates to fight inflation. In general, politicians like lower interest rates because making money cheaper helps people buy more t