米希尔·夏尔马撰文安迪·伯纳姆在工党年度大会上的演讲令人难忘。与前任不同,这位新任英国首相听起来真诚且充满希望。他在一些棘手的政策问题上也大胆出击。他承诺改革养老护理和英国臃肿的福利体制,并发起一场关于与欧盟关系以及英国过时的“赢家通吃”选举制度的“全国性对话”。
By Mihir Sharma Andy Burnham’s speech at the Labour Party’s annual conference was memorable. Unlike his predecessor, the new British prime minister sounded heartfelt and hopeful. And he took a few big swings at hard policies as well. Reform is promised for elderly care and Britain’s bloated welfare regime, as is a “national conversation” on the relationship with the European Union and the UK’s outdated winner-takes-all electoral system.
他还提出了“增长理论”,并以贯穿其整个竞选主张的同样激情分享了这一理论。但——不同于在欧盟关系、社会护理和选举改革问题上的态度——他似乎不愿就此展开对话。首相在增长问题上已下定决心。这成了个问题,因为他关于如何重振经济的理论,充其量只是单薄,最坏的情况则是衰退的配方。
He also offered up “a theory of growth,” sharing it with the same passion that ran through the rest of his pitch. But — unlike with the EU, social care and voting reform — he didn’t seem open to a conversation about this. The PM’s mind is made up on growth. And that’s a problem because his theory of how to reboot the economy is, at best, thin. At worst it’s a recipe for decline.
伯纳姆认为增长需要两个关键步骤,完成后将达至理想境界。第一,国家应控制“基础领域”。第二,必须向地方下放权力以释放其“动物精神”。据他称,两者兼备的结果是:“我们优化了企业增长的条件。”这中间缺失不少,还包含几个极其可疑的假设。
Burnham sees two essential steps to growth, and an Edenic endpoint once they’re taken. First, the state should control “the basics.”Second, power must be devolved to the regions to unleash their animal spirits. The result of doing both, according to him? “We optimize the conditions for businesses to grow.”There’s quite a bit missing there, and a couple of very dubious assumptions.
关于国家控制,不难理解伯纳姆为何认为这可能是赢取选票的法宝。近期一项调查发现,超过80%的英国人希望水务公司公营,70%的人希望能源公司也是如此。我内心支持他们。我家里最怕的两个词就是“泰晤士水务”。但这不是我或大多数人第一次对自己的诉求产生误判。公营企业不一定对使用者更负责。它们往往令人沮丧地反应迟钝。更关键的是,国家控制无法成为增长理论的基础。没有理由假设公营企业会更擅长配置稀缺资源,或像伯纳姆希望的那样大幅削减成本。
On state control, it’s not hard to see why Burnham thinks this might be a vote winner. A recent survey found that more than 80% of Britons want publicly run water companies, and 70% want the same for energy firms. My heart’s with them. No two words are more feared in my household than “Thames Water.”But it wouldn’t be the first time that I, or a large majority of people, have been mistaken about what we want. Publicly run companies aren’t necessarily more accountable to those who use them. They tend to be frustratingly unresponsive. More to the point, state control can’t be the basis of a theory of growth. There’s no reason to suppose publicly run companies would be better at allocating scarce resources, or slashing costs in the way Burnham hopes.
事实上,英国的公共部门正变得愈发低效。安永(E&Y)的研究发现,公共部门生产力的短板每年给英国造成约800亿英镑(约合1060亿美元)的损失,到2030年,这一年度损失产出可能达到1700亿英镑。因此,通过削减牟利行为所获得的收益,很容易就因低效率而荡然无存。
In fact, Britain’s public sector is becoming more unproductive. Research from E&Y found that a shortfall in public-sector productivity costs the UK about £80bn ($106 billion) a year, which might reach £170bn of lost output annually by 2030. So what you gain by cutting out profiteering you can just as easily lose through inefficiency.
然后是下放权力。如果允许地区自行设定税收和政策制度,并争夺投资和人才,这或许能提振增长。但政府的计划完全不是这么一回事。
Then there’s devolution. It might boost growth if you let regions set their own tax and policy regimes, and to compete for investment and people. But that isn’t what the government plans at all.
如果说有什么不同,英国的增长问题源于地方政府权力过大。它们通常利用这项权力来阻挠投资。
If anything, Britain’s growth problem is born of local authorities having too much power. They usually use it to block investment.
本周首相本人就提供了一个现成的例子。当被问及希思罗机场第三跑道的规划时,伯纳姆略过了这可能促进增长的可能性,反而暗示这应由伦敦市长和议会议员决定。英国需要一位领导人,敢于在地区偏好与国家需求发生冲突时,明确表示将选择能够提振所有人国内生产总值(GDP)的一方。伯纳姆在该项首次考验中不及格。
A handy example of that came this week from the prime minister himself. When asked about plans for a third runway at Heathrow, Burnham brushed past the possibility that it would enhance growth, and instead implied it was something that London’s mayor and members of Parliament should decide on. Britain needs a leader willing to say that, when a regional preference conflicts with a national need, he will choose whichever boosts gross domestic product for everyone. Burnham has flunked his first test on that.
地方政客总会反对新机场跑道、核电站、输电塔或水库等项目。如今,地方显要是英国基础设施支出最大的阻碍者。那么,他们怎么可能成为任何连贯增长理论中的关键纽带?
Provincial politicians will always object to stuff like new airport runways, nuclear-power plants, electricity pylons or reservoirs. Local panjandrums are today the biggest obstructors of UK infrastructure spending. So how can they also be the connecting link in any coherent theory of growth?
伯纳姆认为,仅靠推行其国家主义和地方主义两大步骤(以及“支持工人”),就能实现其“优化企业增长条件”的终极目标,这颇耐人寻味。换言之,企业和企业家将在中央政府明智地设定经济总体方向、市政厅官员获授权在当地做同样事情时,开始投资。
It’s telling that Burnham reckons his ultimate goal of “optimizing the conditions for businesses to grow” can be achieved merely by embarking on his two steps of statism and localism (as well as by “supporting workers”). In other words, companies and entrepreneurs will start investing once the central state is wisely setting the overall direction of the economy and town-hall officials are empowered to do the same locally.
这根本不是事实。私营部门正在应对更大的担忧:它受到令人沮丧的大量繁文缛节的束缚;借贷成本过高;规划系统一团糟;糟糕的交通连接限制了企业扩张和招聘的地点。所有这些问题都是可以解决的,其中一些甚至可以在下次大选前解决。它们应成为英国任何可行增长理论的基本构建模块。伯纳姆需要确保他迅速将这些纳入其中。
This is just not true. The private sector is wrestling with larger concerns: It’s constrained by depressing amounts of red tape; borrowing costs are too high; the planning system is a disaster; poor transport links limit where firms can expand and recruit. All of these are fixable, some of them even before the next election. They should be the essential building blocks of any workable theory of growth for the UK. Burnham needs to make sure he includes them, quickly.
首相对英国出了什么问题做出了合理的诊断。他已证明愿意就英国的福利国家、民主制度及其在欧洲的地位提出尖锐问题。他也应该愿意向自己——以及他所在政党——的经济直觉提出这些问题。他演讲中贯穿的乐观情绪令人耳目一新。但一位更充满希望的领导人,并不意味着我们有更多理由抱有希望。
The prime minister has made a reasonable diagnosis of what’s gone wrong for Britain. He has proved willing to pose difficult questions about the UK’s welfare state, its democracy and its place in Europe. He should be willing to ask them of his own — and his party’s — economic instincts as well. The optimism running through his speech was refreshing. But a more hopeful leader doesn’t mean we have more reason to hope.
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To contact the author of this story: at msharma131@bloomberg.net