引言：法国债券抛售潮“令人想起欧债危机”早上好，欢迎收看我们关于商业、金融市场和全球经济的滚动报道。
Introduction: French bond sell-off 'reminiscent of the euro crisis' Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
政府债券市场的动荡让人回想起15年前的欧元区债务危机——但这一次，法国成为了焦点。
Turmoil in the government bond market is reviving memories of the eurozone debt crisis 15 years ago – but this time France is in the firing line.
在全球主权债务遭抛售的背景下，市场对巴黎财政状况的担忧正推高其借贷成本。这使得法国与德国借贷成本之间的利差——衡量投资者担忧程度的关键指标——扩大至2012年以来的最宽水平。
Concerns over Paris’s fiscal position is pushing its borrowing costs up, amid a global sell-off of sovereign debt. This pushed the gap beween France and Germany’s borrowing costs, a key measure of investor concern, to its widest level since 2012.
昨日，法国10年期政府债券（即OATs）收益率飙升至2002年以来的最高水平，随后随着债券抛售潮的缓和而回落。
Yesterday, the yield on French 10-year government bonds (or OATs) yields jumped to their highest level since 2002, before dipping back as the bond rout eased.
由于政治不确定性，投资者不愿持有OATs。法国总统选举定于2027年举行，且法国公共债务已攀升至历史高位，引发了市场担忧。
Investors are reluctant to eat their OATs due to political uncertainty, with presidential elections scheduled for 2027, and concerns over France’s public debt which has climbed to a record high.
德意志银行策略师吉姆·里德（Jim Reid）指出，昨日法德10年期国债利差（+13.9个基点）出现了自2020年3月新冠疫情动荡高峰期以来最大的单日涨幅。里德今早向客户表示：随着第四季度开始，市场昨日出现动荡，欧洲金融压力加剧的迹象日益明显。事实上，从许多方面来看，昨日的市场波动让人联想到欧债危机，主权债务传染效应成为热议话题。
Jim Reid, DeutscheBank strategist, points out that yesterday the Franco-German 10 year spread (+13.9bps) saw its biggest daily jump since March 2020 at the height of the Covid turmoil. Reid told clients this morning: Markets stumbled yesterday as we began Q4, with mounting signs of financial stress focused on Europe. In fact, the daily moves were reminiscent of the Euro crisis in many respects, with sovereign contagion a big talking point.
通胀担忧也在推高债券收益率——上午10点，我们将获得欧元区9月物价上涨速度的初步数据。
Inflation fears are also pushing up bond yields – and at 10am we get the first reading on how fast prices rose across the eurozone in September.
如果这未能撼动市场，那么最新的美国就业报告可能会，因为美联储面临越来越大的压力，需考虑加息。日程安排英国夏令时上午9点：联合国粮农组织食品价格指数英国夏令时上午10点：欧元区9月通胀初值英国夏令时下午1点30分：美国非农就业报告欧元交易价格接近昨日创下的17个月低点，当时该单一货币下跌超过0.75%，最低触及1.1214欧元。
If that doesn’t rock the market, then the latest US jobs report might, as pressure mounts on the US Federal Reserve to consider raising interest rates. The agenda 9am BST: UN’s FAO Food Price Index 10am BST: Eurozone flash inflation reading for September 1.30pm BST: US non-farm payrolls employment report The euro is trading close to the 17-month low hit yesterday, when the single currency fell by over 0.75% to as low as €1.1214.
瑞士quote公司的高级分析师Ipek Ozkardeskaya表示，市场对法国的担忧正在对欧元造成负面影响：人们对法国国债的需求急剧下降，这对整个欧元区以及欧元本身都是一个严重的问题。法国是欧元区第二大经济体；在2012年的主权债务危机期间，我们曾将法国与德国并称为欧元区的“核心国家”。
Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote, says jitters about France are hurting the euro: The sharp weakening of appetite for French debt is a big issue for the broader euro area and the euro itself. France is the euro area’s second-largest economy — we used to call it the ‘core’, along with Germany, back during the 2012 sovereign debt crisis!
如果这种担忧继续蔓延，其他负债沉重的欧元区成员国也可能面临更高的借贷成本，从而导致整个地区的金融环境进一步收紧。对于欧元而言，这意味着经济增长前景将变得更为黯淡，同时风险溢价也会上升。昨日，欧元兑美元汇率暴跌至1.1215，因为市场的关注点从各中央银行的货币政策走向了欧元区的主权债务问题。法国的预算计划“无法迅速缓解债券市场的压力”：为缓解局势，法国政府昨日提出了明年的预算方案，其中包括削减430亿欧元开支和提高税收的措施。
So, if concerns spread, other heavily indebted members could also face higher borrowing costs, tightening financial conditions across the region. For the euro, that means weaker growth prospects and a growing risk premium. The EURUSD tanked to 1.1215 yesterday, as the market’s focus shifted from the central-bank convergence/divergence story towards the euro area sovereign debt story. France’s budget 'offers no quick relief for bond markets' France’s government did try to cool the situation yesterday, by proposing a budget for next year including €43bn in cuts and tax rises.
根据该计划，税收负担将增加，同时通过削减政府支出以及限制养老金和公务员薪资的增长来减缓支出增长速度。
Under the proposed plan, the tax burden would rise while spending growth would be slowed through slashing state spending, and capping increases to pensions and civil servant salaries.
财政部长Roland Lescure表示，让法国重回减少财政赤字的正轨非常重要。
Finance minister RolandLescure explained it was important to put France back on track for deficit reduction.
不过即便实施了这一计划，法国的财政赤字明年也仅会降至GDP的5%。
But even with this plan, the French budget deficit would only fall to 5% of GDP next year.
ING银行的分析师们警告称，这样的赤字水平“仍然过高”，无法阻止法国国债（目前已占GDP的119%）继续上升。
Analysts at ING warn that this deficit would be “far too high” to prevent France’s national debt (already 119% of GDP) from rising higher.
在一份题为《法国的预算计划无法迅速缓解债券市场的压力》的报告中，ING银行指出：法国的财政措施虽然能够将财政赤字控制在GDP的6.5%以内，但无法稳定国债水平。鉴于法国未来的政治局势依然复杂，法国国债很可能会继续面临压力；此外，欧洲央行的干预门槛仍然很高（即需要更严重的经济问题才会采取干预措施）。
In a note titled France’s budget offers no quick relief for bond markets, ING say: France’s fiscal package would prevent the deficit from reaching 6.5% of GDP next year, but it would not stabilise public debt. With a difficult political process ahead, French bonds are likely to remain under pressure, while the threshold for ECB intervention remains high