根据周五发布的一项民意调查，在10月27日大选前不到一个月的时间里，以色列反对党将获得53个议席，而总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡领导的联盟将获得51个议席。
Israeli opposition parties would win 53 seats against 51 for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc, said an opinion poll published Friday, less than a month before the Oct. 27 general election.
该调查由《Maariv》日报发布，还预测阿拉伯政党将获得12个议席，由约阿兹·亨德尔领导的“Reservists”政党将获得4个议席。
The survey published by daily Maariv also projected 12 seats for Arab parties and four for the Reservists party led by Yoaz Hendel.
根据这些预测，无论是内塔尼亚胡阵营还是反对党，都无法在拥有120个席位的以色列议会（Knesset）中获得组建政府所需的61个席位。
Under the projections, neither Netanyahu’s camp nor the opposition would reach the 61-seat majority needed to form a government in the 120-member Knesset or parliament.
大多数反对党领导人表示，他们不会依赖阿拉伯政党的支持来组建政府，因此组建联合政府的前景仍充满不确定性。
Most opposition leaders say they will not rely on Arab parties’ support to form a government, leaving prospects for a governing coalition uncertain.
与之前的调查相比，内塔尼亚胡阵营的席位增加了2个，而反对党的席位减少了2个，双方之间的差距缩小到了2个议席。
Maariv said Netanyahu’s bloc gained two seats compared with the previous survey, while the opposition lost two, narrowing the gap between the camps to two seats.
在内塔尼亚胡阵营内部，他的利库德党预计将获得19个议席；极端主义分子伊塔马尔·本-格维尔领导的“犹太力量”党将获得9个议席。
Within Netanyahu’s camp, his Likud party was projected to win 19 seats, followed by extremist National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Jewish Power with nine.
极端正统派政党“Shas”和“联合托拉犹太教”各将获得7个议席；财政部长贝扎莱尔·斯莫特里奇领导的“宗教锡安主义”党将获得5个议席，奥弗·温特领导的“以色列人民党”将获得4个议席。
The ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism would each secure seven seats, while Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism would take five and Ofer Winter’s People of Israel party four.
在反对党中，加迪·艾森科特的“Yashar”党将获得21个议席，纳夫塔利·贝内特的“Together”党将获得13个议席，亚伊尔·戈兰的“民主党”将获得10个议席，阿维格多尔·利伯曼的“以色列家园党”将获得9个议席。
Among opposition parties, Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar would win 21 seats, Naftali Bennett’s Together 13, Yair Golan’s Democrats 10, and Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beytenu nine.
由优素福·贾巴林领导的“联合名单”预计将获得7个议席，曼苏尔·阿巴斯的“联合阿拉伯名单”将获得5个议席。
The Joint List, led by Yousef Jabareen, was projected to secure seven seats, while Mansour Abbas’s United Arab List would take five.
在关于谁更适合担任总理的提问中，艾森科特的支持率（47%）高于内塔尼亚胡（41%），双方之间的差距缩小到了6个百分点；贝内特的支持率（45%）高于内塔尼亚胡，而内塔尼亚胡的支持率（44%）高于利伯曼（39%）。
On the poll’s questions on suitability for prime minister, Eisenkot led Netanyahu by 47% to 41%, with the gap narrowing to six percentage points. Bennett led Netanyahu by 45% to 41%, while Netanyahu led Lieberman 44% to 39%. Israel’s prime minister is not directly elected.
以色列的总理并非通过直接选举产生，组建政府需要获得足够的议会支持。
Forming a government depends on securing sufficient parliamentary support.
调查还显示，67%的以色列人对可能发生类似2023年10月7日那样的安全事件表示担忧。
The poll also found that 67% of Israelis expressed concern about the possibility of a security incident on the scale of the Oct. 7, 2023 attack.
在接受调查的人群中，43%的人表示有一定程度的担忧，24%的人则非常担忧。另有26%的人并不担心，7%的人尚未拿定主意。
Of those surveyed, 43% were moderately concerned and 24% very concerned. Another 26% were not concerned, while 7% were undecided.
拉扎尔研究机构对602名以色列成年人进行了此次调查，其误差幅度为4个百分点。
Lazar Research conducted the survey among 602 Israeli adults. Its margin of error was four percentage points.