编辑部：长期债券收益率的上升是一个全球性现象，其根源在于人们对政府财政状况的日益担忧。不过，在财政责任缺失这一问题上，美国堪称“领头羊”。因此，美国更有责任去思考应对之策。
By The Editors Rising long-term bond yields are a global phenomenon, rooted in growing concern about government finances. But the US has led the way in this collapse of fiscal responsibility. As such, it bears outsized responsibility for thinking about solutions.
收益率上升不仅意味着预算赤字持续存在，还可能预示着经济将出现剧烈动荡。目前，美国每年的净利息支出高达1万亿美元，这一数额约占政府借款总额的一半。这样一来，收益率的进一步上升极有可能大幅扩大联邦赤字——即便当前经济处于充分就业状态，联邦赤字占国内生产总值的比例也已高达6%，这一数值堪称异常之高。
Higher yields aren’t just a sign of persistent budgetary excess. They could also be the start of a dramatic economic unraveling. In the US, net interest payments now amount to $1 trillion a year, accounting for roughly half of what the government borrows. As a result, rising yields could dramatically expand the federal deficit — which already stands at an extraordinary 6% of gross domestic product, even with the economy at full employment.
美国国会预算办公室最近发布的常规预测显示：在假设不会出现经济衰退且10年期国债收益率维持在4.5%以下的前提下，公共债务占GDP的比重将从今年的101%升至2056年的175%以上。然而，这一基准利率上个月就已突破5%。收益率每上升一点，财政前景就会进一步恶化，进而又会推高收益率，形成恶性循环。
The Congressional Budget Office’s most recent business-as-usual projections show net public debt rising from 101% of GDP this year to more than 175% by 2056. This assumes no recessions and a 10-year yield below 4.5%. That benchmark rate surpassed 5% last month. Every increase worsens the fiscal outlook, which puts further upward pressure on yields, which further worsens the fiscal outlook.
这种状况显然不可持续：唯一的问题就是，或许已然开始的债务螺旋式上升趋势能否被遏制得住。
This dynamic is clearly unsustainable: The only question is whether the debt spiral that might already be starting can still be held at bay.
不言而喻，所有人都希望通过经济快速增长来解决问题。诚然，经济繁荣能够支撑更多的公共借贷。但各国政府屡次发现，经济增长并非仅凭主观意愿就能实现。
Needless to say, the cure that everybody would prefer is faster growth. For sure, a richer economy can support more public borrowing. But again and again, governments everywhere have found that growth isn’t something they can just will into existence.
尤为关键的是，一旦国家陷入严重的财政脆弱状态，许多在财政状况较为宽松时能够刺激经济增长的政策——比如对基础设施的公共投资、为鼓励企业投资或增加劳动力供给而实施的减税措施——反而会带来风险。即便这些政策设计得当，短期内也会增加公共借贷规模；倘若债务螺旋式上升的趋势已然形成，这些政策极有可能加速这一趋势的发展。
Crucially, once a point of acute fiscal fragility has been reached, many of the policies that would spur growth in more forgiving circumstances — public investment in infrastructure, say, or tax cuts to promote corporate investment or expand the supply of labor — have a hazardous downside. In the short term, even if well-designed, they add to public borrowing. If a debt spiral is already forming, they could plausibly accelerate it.
诚然，过于激进的财政紧缩措施本身也存在风险。即便在如今的华盛顿很难想象会出现这种情况，但实施严苛的“紧缩政策”仍可能严重抑制经济增长，反而适得其反。正因如此，财政约束措施必须循序渐进，且必须在债务螺旋失控之前便开始实施。换句话说，时间已经所剩无几。
Granted, overly abrupt fiscal consolidation carries risks of its own. A move to severe “austerity” — difficult as it is to imagine in today’s Washington — might hit growth so hard as to be counterproductive. That’s why budget restraint needs to be gradual, and why it must start before the debt spiral begins and not after. Time, in other words, is running out.
乐观主义者会把人工智能视为推动经济更快增长的潜在动力——这项具有变革意义的技术能够在无需增加公共借贷的情况下提升经济的债务承受能力。这种可能性确实存在。据彭博经济研究测算，人工智能对生产力的提升作用其实比官方统计数据所显示的更为显著。
Optimists will point to artificial intelligence as a potential source of much faster growth — a transformative technology that will expand the economy’s debt-carrying capacity without requiring any increase in public borrowing. That’s possible, to be sure. Bloomberg Economics estimates that AI has already boosted productivity by more than the official statistics say.
然而忽视相关风险则是不明智之举。人工智能的能力越强大，可能引发的破坏性影响也就越大。大量岗位被取代将导致失业率上升，进而增加对公共支出的需求。即便生产力增速提高，也并不能排除这样一种可能性：当前大量资本涌入人工智能领域的行为已经催生了泡沫，而该泡沫日后可能逐渐消退，甚至在最坏情况下彻底破裂。一旦如此，经济增长必将短期内遭受重创，进而对债务螺旋产生极为不利的影响。
But it would be foolish to discount the risks. The more powerful AI proves to be, the more disruption it could cause. Job displacement threatens to raise unemployment and would add to demands for public spending. And higher productivity growth doesn’t rule out the possibility that the stunning rush of investment into AI has inflated a bubble that may yet deflate or in the worst case burst. Should that happen, growth will again take a short-term hit, with potentially dire implications for the debt spiral.
倘若这一问题继续被搁置不管，谨慎稳健的财政审慎措施也将不再成为可行的选择。事实上，现在或许已经为时过晚：一场需要迅速采取严厉应对措施的危机已近在眼前。可即便如此，华盛顿的决策者们仍不愿去正视这一问题。他们或许很快也将失去这种“逃避”的资本了。
If this issue keeps being set aside, the calm and measured remedy of fiscal prudence will cease to be an option. Indeed, it may already be too late: A crisis that could demand instant painful answers isn’t far off. Yet even now, Washington’s policymakers would rather not think about it. They may not have that luxury much longer.
如需联系负责彭博社观点版块社论的高级编辑，请发邮件至 tlobrien@bloomberg.net，联系人为蒂莫西·L·奥布赖恩。
To contact the senior editor responsible for Bloomberg Opinion’s editorials: Timothy L. O'Brien at tlobrien@bloomberg.net